Casagrande: Predicting every Auburn game as Tigers take big step

This is an opinion column.We’re back with the annual humiliation ritual of picking every Auburn football game ahead of the season.It went poorly last year. This columnist was bullish on the Tigers to the point of projecting an 8-4 record. What a clown. To be fair, I nailed the first six games, but 5-7 is a long way from 8-4. On to the next one, and this one looks like even more of a monochromatic jigsaw puzzle. Every year this gets more challenging, with roster turnover shuffling the deck and then trading it for a whole new one every January. Throw in a coaching change with Alex Golesh mercifully replacing the mess in whom this goofball previously believed. We say all that to hedge the bets of everything else I’m about to type.Sept. 5 vs. Baylor (in Atlanta)Auburn got off to a hot start last year in Waco. An inspiring 38-24 win over the Bears, it turned out, was more of a mirage than foreshadowing. Baylor also disappointed in a season that almost cost coach Dave Aranda his job.Now, it’s a great coin toss. So many of these will be. Baylor has former five-star Florida quarterback DJ Lagway, who will either prove himself at School No. 2 or he’ll enter that bust conversation. Either way, it’ll be an intriguing showdown of two high-profile transfer QBs with Auburn’s Byrum Brown making his Tiger debut.The pick: Auburn (1-0)Sept. 12 vs. Southern MissThe Golden Eagles were once a G5 power but have slipped. They were 7-6 last year before coach Charles Huff moved to Memphis. Blake Anderson is now in charge and USM was picked in the bottom half of its Sun Belt division.A good night for Golesh to win his Jordan-Hare Stadium opener.The pick: Auburn (2-0)Sept. 19 vs. FloridaThis one was tricky. Florida returns a good bit of production from last year’s team. That’s typically good. The 2025 Gators also lost to South Florida -- a squad that exported a big chunk of its production to Auburn along with Golesh. Both have new head coaches. Florida’s Jon Sumrall was certainly a candidate at Auburn, so it will be an early referendum on all that. Florida also got former Auburn WR Eric Singleton in the transfer sweepstakes, so there are all kinds of storylines. The Gators will be less tested opening with FAU and Campbell, so a trip to a hostile Jordan-Hare under the lights could be spicy. The pick: Auburn (3-0)Sept. 26 vs. VanderbiltThe good news: Diego Pavia is gone. Out of appeals. No judge can send him to Jordan-Hare to haunt the Tigers again. The reflex is to bet against Vanderbilt because two good years can’t erase a lifetime of futility. Curious to see if senior Blaze Berlowitz is still the starting QB after winning the preseason race over five-star freshman Jared Curtis. Either way, I still need a reason to believe.The pick: Auburn (4-0)Oct. 3 at TennesseeAnother SEC game. Another new starter at QB. By October, the newness will be melting away with five-star freshman Faizon Brandon taking the job. It’ll be a little homecoming for Golesh since his last gig before getting a head coaching job was OC with the Vols.Tennessee has a lot to prove defensively, but the tiebreaker here goes to the homefield advantage. Should be a close one, but going Vols here.The pick: Tennessee (Auburn 4-1)Oct. 17 at GeorgiaThe losing streak in this old-school rivalry will end someday, just not this one. It will hit 10 games in Athens because this Bulldog program is just far too mature in comparison.Auburn had its best shot last October before folding in the wake of a controversial officiating moment. Can’t waste an opportunity. Better times are coming, but Georgia is a national title contender and Auburn’s still finding its sea legs.The pick: Georgia (Auburn 4-2)Oct. 24 vs. LSUThis is interesting because Lane Kiffin teams always find a way to lose games nobody sees coming. See Kentucky and Florida in 2024. There really is an itch to go with Auburn here since the preseason expectations might be over-selling Year 1 of the Kiffin Experience. Part 3 of 4 in a brutal month of October for Auburn will be a gut test. If I had any, I’d go Auburn here. But I’m trying to learn from past mistakes. The pick: LSU (Auburn 4-3)Oct. 31 at MississippiFinally, the month of October ends -- with a trip to the home of a potential Heisman frontrunner and a team that came a few minutes from playing for a national title. It will be interesting to see how Pete Golding fares without the adrenaline of a pre-playoff coaching change. Either way, Mississippi figures to be ahead of Auburn in terms of development. Playing in Oxford makes this one easier to pick.The pick: Mississippi (Auburn 4-4)Nov. 7 vs. ArkansasFinally, November. And two straight meetings with the teams picked at the bottom of the SEC. Morale doesn’t seem high in Fayetteville and Auburn can’t waste this opportunity. The Tigers need this one.The pick: Auburn (5-4)Nov. 14 at Mississippi StateIt’s hard to spot any momentum in Starkville after the Bulldogs went 1-8 in SEC play last year. Their only win was a 38-35 final at the only program sadder, Arkansas. The Bulldog defense was especially atrocious as DC Coleman Hutzler was canned. He’s now Auburn’s linebacker coach, where he finds much better personnel. The pick: Auburn (6-4)Nov. 21 vs. SamfordGotta beat the FCS team. Can’t let the momentum slip before the Iron Bowl.The pick: Auburn (7-4)Nov. 28 at AlabamaLast year, I got bold and picked Auburn to win the Iron Bowl. Was a little easier with the game being played in the Crimson Tide house of horrors. That’s not the case this fall. Auburn hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2010 and hasn’t been particularly close often since. Alabama might not be where they’d like to be, but the Crimson Tide has the balance to handle Auburn on its turf. Wouldn’t be shocked if Golesh had something special cooked up for his first Iron Bowl. It probably won’t be a rout. Alabama still wins this one.The pick: Alabama (Auburn 7-5)Final thoughtsThere’s room for adjustments, and injuries will certainly change the forecast both directions as the season progresses. The scheduling gods did Golesh few favors for his debut run in the SEC. That month of October is a beast.But it feels like there’s room to build momentum for a program so desperately yearning for a step forward. A 7-5 year gets Auburn back to a bowl game, a few more practices to catch a tailwind into a Year 2 where Golesh can further mold this program in his image.