Canadian confidence stuck in neutral as oil fuels inflation fears

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Photo by Darryl Dyck/BloombergCanadian consumer confidence showed little sign of improvement in late September, as uncertainty over oil prices and a riskier interest rate outlook continued to weigh on households that were already feeling pessimistic.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountThe Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index rose to a relatively neutral 50.88 in the week ended Sept. 25, up from 49.86 a week earlier. Both are below the 51.8 rating Canadians gave at the start of the month. A reading below 50 indicates net negative views.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.Consumers’ feelings about personal finances and job security improved modestly among those surveyed, though expectations for the economy and real estate market softened, Nanos Research Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos said.SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE: FP West: Energy Insider brings you behind the oilpatch’s closed doors with exclusive insights from insiders every Wednesday morning.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of FP West: Energy Insider will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againSome groups of consumers expressed greater wariness, suggesting pockets of weakness beneath an otherwise relatively stable headline reading. Deteriorating confidence was most pronounced among Canadians between the ages of 50 to 59, whose rating fell about four points to 46.47 in the past four weeks. That period follows the collapse of trade talks between Canada and the United States on Aug. 21.The index is based on a four-week rolling average of interviews with about 1,000 Canadians, and measures perceptions related to personal finances, job security, economic strength and real estate values. The poll is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and the margin of error may be wider for population subsets because the sample size is smaller.The survey period coincides with words of caution from the Bank of Canada, as policymakers focus increasingly on the risk that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.Higher oil prices and constrained refining capacity are pushing inflation above earlier expectations, governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech last week. He warned that more persistent price pressures could require a higher policy rate. Rising energy prices are also directly putting pressure on household costs.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg have also raised their inflation outlook and are watching how oil prices, inflation and borrowing costs evolve ahead of the bank’s next rate decision and monetary policy report on Oct. 28. Manulife now expects the bank to raise rates at its next two meetings.We apologize, but this video has failed to load.This advertisement has not loaded yet.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.