Can Trump and Xi Turn Leverage Into a Russia Deal – and What Are the Stakes for Ukraine?

The high-stakes Washington state visit by Chinese leader Xi Jinping – his first in 11 years – carries massive implications for the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. As Washington seeks to reset global trade and security dynamics, Kyiv is closely watching whether the Trump administration will successfully pressure Beijing to pull the economic rug out from under Vladimir Putin’s war machine.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. On Tuesday, Sept. 22, President Volodymyr Zelensky openly hinted at the special relationship between Moscow and Beijing – and Washington’s important role in bringing Putin to the negotiating table. Speaking to journalists during a press conference in New York, Zelensky underscored the stakes. “Tomorrow, President Trump will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. I told the president [Trump] frankly that, in my opinion, if he also brings Xi on board, it could make a difference. Xi has influence over Putin. That’s what I think.” Sanctions law and hesitation Trump has just acquired a powerful new instrument for influencing precisely that relationship: a sweeping Russia sanctions law that allows Washington to impose tariffs on Russia’s largest trading partners. That creates an unusual triangle. Washington can raise the cost to Beijing of doing business with Russia. And Beijing can raise the cost to Moscow of continuing the war. And Moscow, increasingly reliant on Chinese markets, has far less economic weight than either of them. Other Topics of Interest EU Sanctions Former RT France Chief Xenia Fedorova Fedorova, who continued to appear on French TV and radio after RT’s EU ban, is now among 81 individuals and 20 entities targeted over Russia’s hybrid activities. However, the much-celebrated sanctions law will become an effective deterrent only if President Trump actually decides to use it. Trump himself reflected that hesitation during his meeting with Zelensky on Tuesday, remarking: “I hope I will not have to use it.” Meanwhile, Chinese refiners have recently increased purchases of Russian crude. Russia’s ESPO oil climbed above $120 a barrel this month amid strong Chinese demand, with Chinese state-owned firms securing much of the available November and December supply. That means Beijing is simultaneously one of Putin’s most important economic partners and potentially one of Trump’s biggest targets if Washington decides to use the new sanctions authority. If Washington keeps the threat theoretical, Russia will continue earning energy revenues while negotiations drag on. Especially if Washington pressures Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, Moscow gets exactly what it wants – a continued flow of oil cash while it imitates peace talks. Kirill’s special backchannel mission The simultaneous arrival of Kirill Dmitriev – head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and Putin’s premier backchannel diplomat – in New York is a calculated reactive response to the Trump-Xi meeting. Dispatched to meet with Trump’s inner circle, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Dmitriev is executing a classic “carrot-and-stick” diplomatic play coordinated by the Kremlin. While Sergey Lavrov and Dmitry Peskov brandish the “stick” publicly by insisting that Russia will not stop fighting even during ceasefires, Dmitriev acts as the “carrot,” dangling lucrative, hypothetical economic projects. Moscow’s immediate goal is to persuade the American administration that Russia is ready to diversify its economic dependence away from China. Dmitriev’s economic overtures are an absolute illusion. It is sufficient to look at Putin’s arbitrary asset nationalizations, corporate seizures, and systematic punishment of remaining Western brands such as Auchan and Metro in Russia to realize that Dmitriev’s major mission is to strike a grand bargain behind Kyiv’s back and prevent Trump from pulling the trigger on the Graham sanctions law. Rational Western capital will not return to an autocracy defined by these hostile economic environments. Even under a temporary freeze, the risks would continue to deter international investment for years to come. G20: The next strategic test Trump, Xi, and potentially Putin could once again find themselves in the same diplomatic arena at the upcoming G20 summit in Miami this December. On Thursday, Putin’s invitation to the summit was officially confirmed. Before the Kremlin even responded to the Miami invite, the EU made its position clear: it will use the December G20 summit to condemn Russia’s full-scale invasion, regardless of whether Putin attends. “The G20 is a key forum for addressing existing and emerging global challenges – some of which have been created precisely by Russia’s war against Ukraine,” European Commission Deputy Chief Spokesperson Olof Gill said. Washington and Beijing should do the same – and use their combined leverage to cut off Russia’s financial lifelines until the Kremlin ends its aggression. A trilateral summit? Kyiv has already neutralized Moscow’s empty peace gestures by proving that it is the Kremlin avoiding genuine diplomacy. As Zelensky bluntly summarized at his New York press conference: “Those who want peace – sit and talk. For Moscow, a trilateral summit is a vanity award – a photo op to buy time and escape sanctions. For Kyiv, any future platform is not a theater for submission, but a place to ensure Putin hears directly that Ukraine will never trade away its territory or its sovereignty to end the war Russia started. Sevinj OsmanqiziSevinj Osmanqizi is an experienced journalist who writes extensively for Kyiv Post on foreign policy, international security and geopolitics. Based in Washington, D.C., her work focuses on Ukraine, Russia’s war and the broader post-Soviet space.