Can the West really decouple from China?

Over the past 10 years, Washington, Brussels and London have made decreasing economic reliance on China a strategic goal. Western economic plans now stress supply-chain resilience, industrial sovereignty, technological leadership and national security.The Covid-19 pandemic highlighted weaknesses in global supply networks. Increasing geostrategic tensions, export restrictions and technological rivalry have supported political backing for reshoring and “friendshoring” manufacturing.The objective is understandable. The difficulty lies in its execution. Recent analysis by consultancy EY-Parthenon suggests that a significant reduction in Western dependence on China will require investments on a scale rarely seen outside periods of post-war reconstruction.According to the consultancy, the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom would collectively need around US$23.6 trillion in additional investment over the next 25 years to rebuild manufacturing capacity, industrial infrastructure, research capabilities, software ecosystems, logistics networks and supply chains.The figures illustrate the magnitude of the undertaking. EY-Parthenon estimates that the United States would require around US$13.7 trillion, the European Union US$9.1 trillion, and the United Kingdom around US$800 billion by 2050. These investments would supplement – not replace – existing expenditures.These estimates need not be necessarily seen as forecasts of these investments not happening. Instead, they indicate how much investment would be needed if governments truly aim to rebuild many of the industrial capabilities centralised in China within their own borders.