Can KMT’s Chiang Wan-an rally supporters in tight mayor race to defend his Taipei seat?

TAIPEI - Facing a sea of supporters dressed in white at the launch of his campaign headquarters, Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an on Oct 26 apologised for causing them “anxiety” over his re-election bid.“I want to say to everyone, I’m sorry you had to worry about me. I know that sometimes I might be a little too honest. Sometimes I might be a little too boring,” said Chiang, who is one of Kuomintang’s (KMT) political stars.“But I don’t like sophistry, and I’m not good at promoting myself or performing… Chiang Wan-an is Chiang Wan-an.”It was an unexpected show of contrition from the incumbent, who had seemed certain about cruising to victory just five months ago.Back in May, it was common knowledge that unseating Chiang from his perch as mayor of Taiwan’s capital city would be a tall order. He had a high approval rating, and no major scandals marred his four years in office.Rallying his supporters on Oct 26, Chiang counted off the highlights of his term in office: Taipei was awarded a Special Mention in the 2026 Lee Kuan Yew World City Prize, and as mayor, Chiang received the trophy at the World Cities Summit in Singapore in June.His administration helped bring Nvidia’s overseas headquarters to Taipei; he had implemented family-friendly policies, such as free school lunches; he had made Taipei a smoke-free city and improved transport in the city.“I have always served the people, that was why I entered politics. That has never changed, isn’t that right?” said Chiang, to shouts of “yes” from the crowd gathered in a school courtyard in Taipei.But as hustings for local elections in Taiwan enter their final month, Chiang is on the backfoot as he faces an unexpected wave of support for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) contender Puma Shen.In late May, a TVBS poll showed that Shen, an academic and a relatively inexperienced DPP backbencher, trailed Chiang by 28 percentage points.By September, however, it was clear that Shen’s rallies were packed and his supporters coined the phrase “ocean current” – a pun on Shen’s Chinese name – to describe the tsunami of support for Shen.Recent polls point to a tight race, with results varying, but one shows Shen ahead of Chiang by 17 percentage points in a dramatic about-turn.Who will turn up to vote?Shen’s campaign office launch on Oct 4 was packed, with organisers claiming 120,000 in attendance, although that number is disputed. While Chiang’s supporters filled the school yard on Oct 26, his campaign put the number who turned up at a more modest 50,000.But what matters more is who turns up to vote on Nov 28, polling day for the nine-in-one local elections.Political observer Shen Chen-Lan said that KMT rallies are generally less impressive than the DPP’s, but this does not mean they are lagging in support.“While the turnout was indeed smaller than at Puma Shen’s campaign headquarters launch…it’s a big question mark how many attendees at Shen’s event were from Taipei, and how many were from surrounding counties,” said Shen, a psychiatrist by profession, who is frequently quoted by Taiwanese media for his political observations.Said Jiang, 64, a supporter who was at Chiang’s rally but declined to give his full name: “A big turnout at rallies doesn’t mean Shen will get more votes.” He added that KMT supporters tend to be “more conservative” in their show of support.Regardless of the turnout, the rally energised Chiang’s base and helped him take back some momentum from Shen’s campaign, said political scientist Yen Wei-ting.“The real question is whether Chiang can sustain that momentum…a single rally can shift the mood, but who sets the agenda over the coming weeks matters more,” said the assistant research fellow at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.KMT unites to defend TaipeiAt the Oct 26 rally, Chiang and three other KMT bigwigs – New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih, Taichung mayor Lu Shiow-yen and Legislative Yuan speaker Han Kuo-yu – stood hand-in-hand on stage, shouting “Taipei Encore”, Chiang’s campaign slogan, to a jubilant crowd.Hou ran in the 2024 presidential election against President Lai Ching-te, while Lu and Han are potential KMT candidates for the 2028 presidential election.Chiang himself was often cited as a possible presidential contender – until Puma Shen’s “ocean current” threatened his standing.Lu, now the chairperson of Chiang’s Taipei campaign, said at the rally that the DPP’s strategy is to hem Chiang in Taipei, to make sure he has no bandwidth to support KMT candidates in other districts.“The DPP is using all their resources to beat one person…so Chiang is facing an unprecedented challenge and a very difficult election,” she said.With this narrative, the KMT is playing the sympathy card to get more supporters to vote, said Qi Dongtao, Senior Research Fellow at the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore.“One characteristic of KMT voters is that their voter turnout is consistently low, lower than that of DPP voters. Therefore, the strategy is to cultivate a sense of victimhood for Chiang Wan-an to evoke their sympathy and then get them to vote,” he said.The serious threat from Puma Shen means the KMT is now focused on defending Taipei – a major base for the party and a city which has historically leaned blue, KMT’s party colour.Since direct mayor elections in 1994, the city has only had two mayors who were not from the KMT – DPP’s Chen Shui-bian (1994 to 1998) and independent candidate Ko Wen-je (2014 to 2022), who later founded the Taiwan People’s Party.Taipei gives its mayor a national, even international profile, and is regarded as a springboard to the presidency.The opposition KMT has already been out of power for a decade, after former president Tsai Ing-wen from the DPP won the 2016 election.A poor result in the upcoming local elections, and in particular losing the capital city, would be a major blow to KMT and its prospects for the presidential election in 2028.Presidential prospects“I believe that if Chiang Wan-an loses the election, it will be…bad for all of the Kuomintang, so their level of unity will be higher than before,” said East Asian Institute’s Qi, adding that the show of unity will help mobilise “deep blue” voters, that is, staunch KMT supporters. The effect on swing voters, however, is debatable.Academia Sinica’s Yen agrees that the bigger goal is persuading non-partisan voters.“I think it can resonate with some of them too, since an underdog story often draws sympathy. Whether it can reach enough of them is the real test,” she said.But Qi thinks that Chiang’s prospects for political office beyond Taipei have already dimmed, whether or not he retains the mayorship.For now, Chiang has his hands full defending his position as mayor.Political analyst Shen, who is openly supportive of KMT, thinks Chiang still has a chance.“Before May of this year, Chiang Wan-an’s city administration approval rating was as high as 60%, a remarkable achievement considering the recent performance of Taipei mayors,” he said.“His approval rating has only declined in recent months due to attacks from his opponents, making it even more crucial for him to emphasise his city administration achievements and demonstrate his competence to the citizens.”Rounding up his speech on Oct 26, Chiang said Taipei has recovered quickly after Typhoon Champi swept Taiwan over the weekend, and that the wind and rain, no matter how severe, will eventually pass.Will there be sunshine after the rain for Chiang in the upcoming election? The voters will speak on Nov 28, when Taiwan will elect more than 11,000 local officials across the island.