Can ‘Ebenezer’ Resurrect Johnny Depp’s Box Office Drawing Power?

Once upon a time, Johnny Depp was one of the biggest stars in Hollywood, launched to superstardom through his franchise-making performance as Captain Jack Sparrow. Now he’s looking for a comeback with his first film from a major studio in eight years: Paramount’s “Ebenezer,” an adaptation of Charles Dickens’ legendary “A Christmas Carol.” Yes, Depp is following in the footsteps of Alastair Sim, Michael Caine, Patrick Stewart and Jim Carrey as the latest screen star to play Dickens’ holiday miser, Ebenezer Scrooge. Directed by horror filmmaker Ti West in his first film since completing his “X” slasher trilogy at A24, the film is selling itself as an expansion on Dickens’ work, providing more depth to Scrooge as he is visited by his old business partner and three ghosts urging him to change his misanthropic ways. But that depth is not the main selling point, of course. “Ebenezer” is building all of its marketing around Depp, who since 2018 has been in exile from Hollywood amidst domestic abuse allegations and a years-long legal battle with his ex-wife, Amber Heard. But even before those allegations came to life, Depp’s career had already been on the downswing compared to his peak from 2006 to 2011, when he had three “Pirates of the Caribbean” installments and an “Alice in Wonderland” remake that combined to gross more than $4 billion worldwide. In comparison, “Ebenezer” is projected for a domestic opening of around $20 million this weekend, with a similar overseas launch, highlighting how far expectations have fallen for the star. Depp’s decline began in earnest in 2013 with the Disney flop “The Lone Ranger,” a $225 million tentpole that starred him as the Native American Tonto and grossed just $260 million worldwide. Its failure wasn’t credited to Depp, as it had faced plenty of unforeseen production issues that caused significant cost overruns. But in the years to come, the flops piled up: “Transcendence” ($103 million grossed worldwide), “Black Mass” ($99 million worldwide), “Alice Through the Looking Glass” ($276 million against a $170 million budget) and worst of all, “Mortdecai” ($37.3 million against a $60 million budget) all were duds in the mid-2010s. Even “Pirates” was seeing diminishing returns with the 2017 fifth installment “Dead Men Tell No Tales,” which relied on Depp’s lingering overseas draw as Jack Sparrow to gross $794.8 million worldwide, well below the $1.04 billion of predecessor “Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides” in 2011. So by the time Depp was cast to play the villainous Gellert Grindelwald in Warner Bros.’ “Harry Potter” prequel series “Fantastic Beasts” as Heard’s abuse allegations emerged, it was clear that Depp had lost his luster with a good chunk of moviegoers. 2018’s “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” the second film in the series, grossed $655 million worldwide, down from the $816 million of the first “Fantastic Beasts” where Depp had been introduced in a surprise cameo. The promise of seeing him throughout the sequel did nothing to prevent a box office slip, and as Depp and Heard went to trial, the actor was replaced by Mads Mikkelsen in a doomed third “Fantastic Beasts” film that marked the end of the series and a pivot by Warner Bros. back to the original “Harry Potter” books. As the very public Heard/Depp trial demonstrated, Depp still has a loyal fanbase that has stuck with him through the scandal. Now the question is whether that fanbase is big enough to support “Ebenezer,” or if his absence from the big screen makes him more of a draw. With Depp taking a smaller salary compared to his prime, “Ebenezer” has a reported net budget of $38 million, below the $50-60 million budgets of some of his 2010s flops like “Mortdecai” and “Black Mass.” But that is counterbalanced by a reported $50 million marketing budget highlighted by Depp’s visit to San Diego Comic-Con, where he yelled and grumbled at attendees while in character as Scrooge. On that budget level, “Ebenezer” could be a modest success for Paramount. Like Warner Bros.’ “The Cat in the Hat,” the hope is that word-of-mouth, particularly around Depp’s performance, will allow “Ebenezer” to endure in theaters into December even as it faces a relatively soft box office launch. As a “Christmas Carol” adaptation, “Ebenezer” could last as a gothic-tinged holiday offering if nostalgia builds around Depp. If so, it could open doors for Depp as the 63-year-old tries to get back into Hollywood after spending the past several years working on independent and foreign productions. He already has another Hollywood film lined up with Lionsgate’s “Day Drinker” opposite Penelope Cruz, and “Pirates” producer Jerry Bruckheimer has said in interviews that Depp has been in talks with Disney to play Jack Sparrow again. Along with “Ebenezer,” another film hitting theaters this weekend is Amazon MGM’s “How to Rob a Bank,” a comedic action thriller starring Nicholas Hoult as the leader of a group of bank robbers who turn their heists into fodder for a popular YouTube channel. The film was produced on a $60 million budget, a significant drop for director David Leitch compared to his 2024 misfire, “The Fall Guy,” which made just $181 million against a $125 million budget. But even at that lower level, “How to Rob a Bank” may struggle to turn a theatrical profit, as it is currently tracking for a domestic opening in the low teens. While more colorful and anarchic than next weekend’s “Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping,” it may find itself squeezed out by the Lionsgate franchise film as well as the buzzy “Godzilla Minus Zero” amongst moviegoers looking for big screen thrills.