Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?

Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the possibility of Democrats flipping a seat in Kansas and the Trump administration’s “public service announcements.” The Agenda: —The Senate race in Kansas —Why are Republicans still confident? Show notes: —Jonah for National Review: Breaking Bad Breaks Through Jonah’s Top 10 Picks: Breaking Bad The Wire Station 11 Better Call Saul Band of Brothers Chappelle’s Show Slow Horses Chernobyl Deadwood Barry And Tied for 10th place (heh): 30 Rock (Seasons 1 and 2), Andor, The Bear Steve’s Top 10 Picks: Broadchurch Unforgotten The Americans Better Call Saul Foyle’s War Colin from Accounts Homeland Line of Duty Marcella Dept. Q Kevin’s Top 10 Picks: The Wire Breaking Bad (and Better Call Saul—I’m treating them as a unit) Justified Deadwood Game of Thrones Mad Men Stranger Things Watchmen Girls Battlestar Galactica Mike’s Top 10 Picks: Breaking Bad Bluey Arrested Development (not counting the Netflix revival) Better Call Saul 30 Rock Chappelle's Show Andor Slow Horses The Crown Nathan For You Steve Hayes is CEO and editor of The Dispatch, based in Annapolis, Maryland. Prior to co-founding the company in 2019, he worked at The Weekly Standard for 18 years, covering Washington, politics, and national security. Steve is the author of two New York Times bestsellers. He also worked as a contributor at CNN and Fox News, and currently serves as a political analyst at NBC News. When Steve is not focused on The Dispatch, he’s probably traveling with his family, grilling, or riding his mountain bike. Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief and co-founder of The Dispatch, based in Washington, D.C. Prior to that, enormous lizards roamed the Earth. More immediately prior to that, Jonah spent two decades at National Review, where he was a senior editor, among other things. He is also a bestselling author, longtime columnist for the Los Angeles Times, commentator for CNN, and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. When he is not writing the G-File or hosting The Remnant podcast, he finds real joy in family time, attending to his dogs and cat, and blaming Steve Hayes for various things. Kevin D. Williamson is national correspondent at The Dispatch and is based in Virginia. Prior to joining the company in 2022, he spent 15 years as a writer and editor at National Review, worked as the theater critic at the New Criterion, and had a long career in local newspapers. He is also a writer in residence at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. When Kevin is not reporting on the world outside Washington for his Wanderland newsletter, you can find him at the rifle range or reading a book about literally almost anything other than politics. Michael Warren is politics editor at The Dispatch and is based in Washington, D.C. A former on-air reporter at CNN and a senior writer at The Weekly Standard, he has spent more than 15 years covering lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the White House and the executive branch, the conservative movement, and political campaigns. When Mike is not reporting, writing, editing, and podcasting, he is probably spending time with his wife and three sons. The podcast transcription below was generated using artificial intelligence and may include occasional errors or misspellings. Steve Hayes 0:00 [instrumental music] Welcome to the Dispatch Podcast. I'm Steve Hayes. On today's roundtable, we discuss the possibility of Democrats picking up a Senate seat in Kansas, and how Donald Trump's unpopularity is affecting down-ballot Republicans. Then the Trump administration uses taxpayer funding to buy campaign ads that they call, quote, "Public service announcements." Spoiler, they are not public service announcements. And then finally, not worth your time, the greatest TV shows of the 21st century. Our reflections on the New York Times recently released list, and in the show notes, a top 10 from our panelists. I'm joined today by The Dispatch's editor-in-chief, Jonah Goldberg, national correspondent Kevin Williamson, and politics editor Mike Warren. Let's dive right in. [instrumental music] Morning, gentlemen. When we release this podcast, it will be five weeks to the day from the 2026 midterm elections. And if you've been paying careful attention over the past several weeks, you've noticed that we are now, and others are now, talking about races that were really not on the radar. They were not listed as competitive races two months ago, certainly not six months ago. Among those races are potentially Nebraska Senate, where a Republican leadership-aligned group has apparently committed to sending 10 million additional dollars to the Nebraska race to help Pete Ricketts in a, what may be a competitive race. Still hard for me to see it as a competitive race. We've seen a lot of discussion about Alaska, which was not thought to be a competitive race six months ago, or as competitive a race, and now it is one of the most competitive races. We're talking about Ohio, Iowa. Steve Hayes 1:55 And interestingly, over the past few weeks, one race has commanded lots of attention, and that is the US Senate race in Kansas, where incumbent Republican Roger Marshall is fighting, uh, to keep his seat against Adam Hamilton, a prominent religious figure in this state. There's not a ton of polling on this race, uh, but what, what couple polls we have show the race pretty close. I would say the bigger tell than the public polling is what we're seeing from Roger Marshall, who is certainly acting like this is a very close and competitive race. Uh, I wanna get into this for a couple reasons. I wanna talk about the dynamics of the race. There's been some reporting. There's, there's a, an ad out from the Democratic challenger, uh, that has gotten a lot of sort of viral attention. But Mike, let me start with you. Uh, you probably follow this stuff more closely than any of the rest of us. Steve Hayes 2:56 Is this a real thing? Because it... Could Roger Marshall lose that Senate seat in what's thought to be deep red Kansas? There's certainly some state red, and they've had governors that have been Democrats, but could Roger Marshall actually lose that race? Mike Warren 3:09 I mean, the short answer, Steve, is yes, because, I mean, [chuckles] in the realm of possibilities, anything is possible. But, but more seriously, uh, I, I do think you, you, you hit on something very important, which is, yes, the polls show s- there's limited polling. You know, I think the last two polls have shown, uh, Adam Hamilton with like a one-point lead, two-point lead. A few polls before that showed Marshall in the lead. But what's more important, or what we can watch to gauge and as a barometer for whether this is a winnable race for Adam Hamilton, a losable race for Roger Marshall, is the actions of the candidates. And you're absolutely right that Roger Marshall is on the, uh, offense. I guess he, first he's on the defense because Adam Hamilton's been running this really kind of devastating ad about the way that Roger Marshall's, who is a doctor, sicced the cops on, uh, a woman who had a $50, uh, overdue medical bill. And, uh, this commercial's been running. There was a story about it, and now they've sort of formed it into a commercial. And- Steve Hayes 4:12 She was eight months pregnant and put in handcuffs. Interactive transcripts are available to Premium members. Join to follow along with the audio. Join Now