Can Carson Beck convince the Cardinals not to draft a QB? He has eight games to make his case

The third-round rookie has eight games to prove he can be this year's Tyler Shough, but history says that won't be easy Nov 9, 2026 at 9:36 pm ET • 6 min read Carson Beck wasn't supposed to be the Cardinals' starting quarterback in 2026. But after Jacoby Brissett was benched-and-then-traded to Baltimore following Week 8's loss, and then, seven days later, Gardner Minshew suffered an elbow injury that could require season-ending surgery, those best-laid plans have suddenly changed.Now the third-round rookie is in line to make his NFL debut against the Rams this Sunday. And Beck will have eight games to convince the Cardinals they don't need to use what will almost certainly be a top-10 pick on another quarterback next spring.(I say "almost certainly" because while the Cards are currently 3-6 and everything appears to be going wrong, a year ago at this time, the Saints were 1-7, turned to Tyler Shough to finish 5-4 and ended up with the eighth pick instead of something higher. Shorter version: We'll see.) That's a potentially franchise-changing opportunity for the 65th overall pick, but what exactly would success look like? Back in June, I wrote that Beck might be the safest quarterback in the 2026 draft class. The former Georgia and Miami QB had started 43 games, was a quick processor, took care of the football and kept the offense on schedule. His 38.6% first-down rate ranked in the 95th percentile among draft-eligible quarterbacks from 2015-26.But there was a catch. Beck faced pressure on just 19.1% of his college dropbacks, the lowest rate among quarterbacks going back more than a decade, and more than 32% of his throws were screens. He was rarely asked to make something happen when everything around him fell apart because it so rarely did.That was a big question entering the NFL: Was Beck's high floor the product of his talent, his surroundings or some combination of both? Well, we're about to find out. What history tells us about late-season rookie auditionsSince 2007, 24 quarterbacks drafted in the third round or later made their first NFL start after Week 7 of their rookie seasons. (This is through the 2024 draft class so we can look at Year 2 production, as well.)Of those 24, only eight started at least four games as rookies. And just three of those eight – Nick Foles, Desmond Ridder and Brock Purdy – started at least eight games the following season. Sam Howell was the only quarterback with fewer than four rookie starts to do so.How late-starting rookie QBs drafted in Round 3 or later fared in Year 2QuarterbackRoundRookie startsYear 2 startsNick Foles (2012)3610Desmond Ridder (2022)3412John Skelton (2010)547T.J. Yates (2011)540Keith Null (2009)640Ryan Lindley (2012)640Zach Mettenberger (2014)663Brock Purdy (2022)7516What's interesting is that six of those eight quarterbacks improved their yards per attempt between their first two and final two rookie starts. But that improvement didn't necessarily translate to long-term success.Ridder, for example, went from 5.3 yards per attempt in his first two starts to 7.0 in his final two, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Atlanta handed Ridder the starting job in 2023 but benched him twice that season before trading him to Arizona the following March. The Falcons then drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in 2024.Purdy, obviously, was very different. He averaged 8.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions in his first two starts, then maintained that production over his final two. He didn't need to improve dramatically because he'd already shown he could play. Now he's one of the league's best quarterbacks.Passing on a QB isn't the same as finding oneFive of those eight teams didn't draft a quarterback the following spring. But several drafted one within the next year or two, and where they picked tells us plenty about the decisions they made.Rookie QBNext draft: first pick usedNext QB draftedFoles2013: No. 4, Lane JohnsonMatt Barkley, 2013 (R4, No. 98)Ridder2023: No. 8, Bijan RobinsonMichael Penix Jr., 2024 (R1, No. 8)Skelton2011: No. 5, Patrick PetersonRyan Lindley, 2012 (R6, No. 185)Yates2012: No. 26, Whitney MercilusTom Savage, 2014 (R4, No. 135)Null2010: No. 1, Sam BradfordSam Bradford, 2010 (R1, No. 1)Lindley2013: No. 7, Jonathan CooperLogan Thomas, 2014 (R4, No. 120)Mettenberger2015: No. 2, Marcus MariotaMarcus Mariota, 2015 (R1, No. 2)Purdy2023: No. 87, Ji'Ayir BrownKurtis Rourke, 2025 (R7, No. 227)The Cardinals know this story better than most. Injuries forced them to start rookies John Skelton in 2010 and Ryan Lindley in 2012, but neither was viewed as the long-term answer. Arizona took Patrick Peterson fifth overall in 2011, passing on quarterbacks Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Andy Dalton, then selected Jonathan Cooper seventh overall in 2013, ahead of Geno Smith. Instead of drafting a quarterback, the Cardinals traded for veterans Kevin Kolb and Carson Palmer in those respective offseasons.That's why draft position matters. Tennessee had the No. 2 overall pick in 2015 and used it on Marcus Mariota after Zach Mettenberger's six rookie starts. St. Louis took Sam Bradford first overall in 2010, but Keith Null had only started four games because injuries forced the Rams to turn to their sixth-round rookie.San Francisco's situation was different. The 49ers traded up to draft Trey Lance third overall in 2021, but he suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2 of '22. Jimmy Garoppolo took over, then broke his foot in Week 13, giving Purdy, the final pick of the 2022 draft, his opportunity. Purdy won all five of his regular-season starts, then two playoff games, and by the following season he'd taken the job Lance was drafted to fill.Could Tyler Shough be Beck's blueprint?If there's a recent example Beck should hope to follow, it's Tyler Shough. The Saints selected him 40th overall in 2025, and he took over the starting job in Week 9, giving New Orleans nine games to evaluate him.Shough went 5-4, but it was how he played that mattered. He completed nearly 68% of his passes, made smart decisions and showed he could run the offense without the Saints having to protect him. It wasn't always pretty, but it was enough for New Orleans to pass on drafting another QB in 2026 and enter the season believing Shough could be its long-term answer.That's the goal for Beck. He doesn't need to become a superstar overnight, but he does need to give Mike LaFleur enough confidence to build around him instead of looking for his replacement – which is exactly what the Saints did in April when they used the No. 8 pick on wide receiver Jordyn Tyson.And there's reason to think this offense should suit him. Arizona has attempted 58.8% of its passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage, while the offensive line has allowed pressure on 31.1% of dropbacks – the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL, according to TruMedia. Beck's accuracy, anticipation and ability to play on time should, in theory, translate. (The game, I need to remind myself, is not a theoretical exercise, so … we'll see.)But Arizona also ranks 28th in yards per play, and Brissett and Minshew had not consistently turned those manageable throws into meaningful production. Beck's challenge is to turn those short throws into more first downs and points.In my preseason projections for the 2026 rookie quarterbacks, I had Beck averaging 6.9 yards per attempt with an 85.8 passer rating – solid numbers that would be an improvement over Arizona's quarterback play to date. But just as important will be whether Beck gets better over the next two months.The Cardinals don't need to reel off eight straight wins, but they do need to see how Beck responds when defenses take away the easy throws. Can he push the ball downfield, keep drives alive under pressure and avoid costly mistakes?At Miami last season, Beck showed that he can be an efficient game manager – and his preseason debut suggested those skills could translate. Now comes the part that actually matters: proving he can do it against NFL starters, week after week, when opponents know exactly what he wants to do.And with a possible top-10 pick awaiting Arizona in April, there's a lot at stake – for the rookie quarterback and an organization that last had a winning season in 2021 (and before that, 2015). Beck doesn't have to prove he's a franchise quarterback during his two-month audition, but he does have to give the Cardinals a reason to believe he could become one.