Can Australia Create Lasting Climate Impacts For the Asia-Pacific?

COP31 comes at a time when the world is facing the reality that it will soon exceed the 1.5°C global warming threshold enshrined in the Paris Agreement. Across the Asia-Pacific, extreme weather impacts are being felt more visibly and intensely, from the streets of Bangkok to towns across China and Nepal and the waters of the Pacific Ocean. While these impacts are becoming more severe, global climate cooperation is facing tighter fiscal constraints and a more fragmented geopolitical environment. Elsewhere the need for strengthened cooperation is also being overshadowed by the discussion around energy security and the race for power availability for the technologies and infrastructure that will shape the future of industrial competitiveness. In the coming days, with support from Australia and Pacific partners, up to 3,000 participants are expected to gather in Fiji alongside a leaders’ summit in Tuvalu for a Pre-COP31 preparatory meeting. This meeting will amplify voices from small state islands and explore what global solutions are needed and the speed required to protect countries whose exposure to climate impacts is rising despite their limited contribution to global emissions. In November, Australia will then preside over the negotiations at COP31 hosted by Türkiye in Antalya. The global climate movement expects both countries to advance key outstanding agenda items, including mobilizing climate finance set out in the COP29 New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance and advancing the phase-out of fossil fuels in the negotiation texts. This will be a tough job. Last month, leaders of BRICS – a grouping of major emerging economies founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – met in New Delhi. The group has since expanded to 11 countries, accounting for 50 percent of the global population. The final endorsed text of the New Delhi Declaration has 34 mentions of climate, highlighting the importance of energy security but stating that “fossil fuels will still play an important role in the world’s energy mix, particularly for emerging markets and developing economies.” Achieving an absolute consensus from 198 countries for phasing out fossil fuels, especially in the context of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, is not easy. But there are practical areas where Australia’s leadership can create lasting impacts for Asia Pacific: electrification and energy security; the rules and infrastructure for clean trade; and climate finance and resilience for the Pacific. Across major Asian economies, including China, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia, electrification is growing at a fast pace. Pairing this with renewable electricity will provide significant opportunities for lower import bills and better environmental outcomes. The opportunity is particularly immediate in remote and island communities. For fishing communities in archipelagic states like the Philippines and Indonesia, solar-powered cold storage could reduce post-harvest agricultural losses for farmers and fishermen and avoid high electricity costs while improving food security and incomes. Across the Pacific, countries spend up to 13 per cent of their GDP on imported fuels. Replacing diesel generation with solar, batteries and other renewable systems has strong implications for energy security, but will require upfront investment. With its strong electrification focus, COP31 can make this opportunity more visible and therefore connect investment, technology and development finance with policy support. For businesses, this means creating opportunities to invest in renewable-powered electrification in industrial export-led economies. For communities, it means combining solar and storage with concessional finance and development assistance to replace ageing, expensive equipment and enable long-term resilience for farmers and fishermen. The Asia-Pacific is a center of industrial activities. Some clean commodity corridors and supply chains are emerging in the region, such as the Australia to Singapore’s green and digital shipping corridor, or the potential Australia to East Asia iron ore green corridors. These go beyond high-level political endorsement. Lots of work has been done and will need to be done to develop a shared view of how emissions are measured, which standards are recognized, how products are certified and whether infrastructure exists to move them from producers to customers. COP31 can strengthen a clean commodities economy through global coordination efforts on measuring, reporting, and verifying carbon reduction standards and action agendas related to green trade and certification. But beyond the negotiation room and climate action agenda, there are various collaborations taking place. An example is reaching consensus on a Net-Zero Framework for marine fuels under the International Maritime Organization. The framework, if advanced further in December, will be fundamental to drive global progress beyond the shipping sector. Australia’s clear goal for COP31 is to support the best possible outcomes for the Pacific, including mobilizing finance through initiatives such as the Pacific Resilience Facility. This is very important, but Pacific countries should not be presented only as vulnerable countries in need of assistance. Their economies, food systems, cultures, and identities are closely connected to global natural capital and security. Fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and other ocean-based activities can form the foundation of future economic development if this natural capital is protected, including vast ocean territories, forests, coral reefs, mangroves and freshwater. Earlier this year, Australia and Fiji signed the landmark Vuvale Union Treaty, recognizing the deep interconnectedness between climate, people, prosperity, and peace across the Pacific. The treaty has made its message clear: rising sea levels are not only an existential threat to Pacific nations; they also have profound implications for Oceania’s security and future prosperity. At the end of the day, countries and communities are deeply connected by climate. One country’s security and prosperity depends on the livelihood and resilience of others.