Calls for renewed Agoa talks after Trump upset in US midterms

Exporters Western Cape believes the election results offer SA a chance for fresh talks. The outcome of the US midterm elections has created a fresh opportunity for South Africa to avert its impending exclusion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), according to Exporters Western Cape chair Terry Gale. “The stunning Republican defeat in the United States midterm elections has changed the political landscape in Washington,” says Gale. “For South Africa, it creates an opportunity to mount an urgent diplomatic effort to avert its exclusion from Agoa.” He says this includes the immediate deployment of a senior diplomatic and trade mission to Washington. “Preventing an interruption in benefits therefore requires action before the new congressional majorities assume office. “Waiting for January would be a serious strategic mistake.” According to Gale, the proposed mission should carry a clear presidential mandate and be supported by credible representatives of business, organised labour and the government of national unity. It should engage with the White House, the US Trade Representative, the State Department, congressional leaders from both parties, and American businesses with a direct interest in the relationship. “That mission must arrive with practical proposals. Washington has cited trade and investment barriers, corruption, and national security and foreign policy concerns,” he says. “South Africa should seek precise, measurable requirements for continued eligibility, address substantiated concerns within its constitutional framework, and demonstrate how preserving the relationship serves American as well as South African interests.” Push for fresh talks The proposed intervention sounds similar in nature to previous attempts to prevent a complete breakdown of trade relations when President Cyril Ramaphosa, senior government officials, business leaders and organised labour met with US President Donald Trump in May 2025. The renewed push for negotiations follows the Trump administration’s decision earlier this week to exclude South Africa and Rwanda from duty-free access to the US market. Introduced by the US Congress in 2000, Agoa gives eligible African countries duty-free access to the world’s largest economy for more than 1 800 products. Not unexpectedly, Trump linked South Africa’s ineligibility to its positions on various domestic and foreign policy issues. Tensions between Pretoria and Washington have persisted since his return to office for a second term in 2025. The exclusion is due to take effect on 1 January 2027. However, some believe the midterm election results could create an opportunity for SA to challenge the decision. With Democrats having won both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Trump administration will face a substantially different Congress for the next two years. “The [midterm] election has opened a political opportunity,” says Gale. “Whether that opportunity protects South African jobs will depend on the speed, credibility and substance of our diplomatic response. “The exclusion has not yet taken effect. South Africa should use the remaining period to pursue every credible avenue for reconsideration.” Three possible scenarios for SA Gale has identified three realistic scenarios, starting with a negotiated reconsideration before January. He believes an agreement addressing specific concerns could persuade the administration to withdraw its intended exclusion, with support from Congress and the business community helping to create the political conditions for such an outcome. The second scenario involves a congressional effort to protect or restore South Africa’s access through legislation. “Democratic control creates an opportunity to pursue this, but success would require more than sympathetic statements,” says Gale. “Legislation would face Senate procedural hurdles and would ordinarily require the president’s signature, or sufficient support to override a veto. Republican allies would therefore remain essential.” The third scenario is that South Africa’s exclusion proceeds despite these efforts. “South Africa must simultaneously prepare targeted support for exposed industries, diversify export markets and continue pursuing a route back into the programme,” says Gale. “Diplomatic optimism must be accompanied by economic preparation.” Exporters face uncertainty South Africa’s citrus and automotive industries are among those expected to be hardest hit by the Agoa fallout, with their products now facing higher tariffs when entering the US market. If further efforts to repair relations between South Africa and the US fail, Pretoria believes diversifying its export markets could prove crucial. This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.