California poised to defeat voter ID, billionaire tax measures

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) — Californians awoke Wednesday to the Democratic Party’s sweep of congressional and gubernatorial elections across the country, with the blue wave even washing over the Golden State’s already deep-blue statehouse.But California voters also received initial results from statewide ballot measures that have dominated local headlines. These propositions, ranging from a voter ID requirement at the polls to changing how the state conducts recall elections, brought mixed results at first blush. As of Wednesday morning, seven of 14 appeared headed toward passage.Proposition 39, the voter ID measure which drew many headlines this election season, appeared headed toward failure with no votes coming in at 58.6% and 41.4% for yes.Proposition 39 would have created a photo ID requirement to vote in person. People voting by mail would have to provide the last four digits of a government-issued ID number. Anyone would be able to ask for and receive a voter ID from the state at no cost.Other propositions include the imposition of a one-time tax on billionaires. Another would tweak how the state handles recall elections.The results are unofficial and incomplete.James Adams, a professor at UC Davis’ political science department, said President Donald Trump’s support for California to impose voter ID doomed the measure. He likened it to an election in a henhouse, with one candidate dressing as a fox to get votes.“It’s just not going to happen,” Adams said.And while outstanding votes likely will trend more progressive, Adams doesn’t see enough of them to overcome the “no” vote.Lisa Bryant, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, said Proposition 39 appeared on the ballot at the same time the federal government made moves to affect ballot delivery through the postal system. She also pointed to a recent legal push by the Justice Department to sequester certain ballots.She’s not surprised by its apparent failure.“It sort of reeks of and looks like election interference by the government,” Bryant added.Voters also likely questioned the cost of California providing a voter ID to anyone who requested one.“I think people see it for what it really is — a political football,” she said.Billionaire taxAnother closely watched ballot measure was Proposition 40, commonly called the billionaire tax. Early returns showed it failing 44.4% to 55.6%.If passed, the measure would have imposed a 5% one-time tax on certain taxpayers with assets over $1 billion. Supporters point to President Donald Trump and his Big Beautiful Bill, which they say slashed healthcare funding. Opponents called the measure a scheme that would hurt the economy and create a loophole that puts all Californians at risk of higher taxes.Two measures on the ballot that would have undone Proposition 40 if it passed show mixed results.Proposition 41 would require the state auditor to review a proposed special tax before it reaches voters. It was failing 47.6% to 52.4%.Proposition 42 would prohibit new taxes on personal property. It was passing 54.3% to 45.7 %.If either Proposition 41 or 42 received more votes than Proposition 40, it would have canceled the billionaire tax, even if the latter had passed.Adams said Proposition 40 likely didn’t fail because of the massive ad blitz against it. Instead, he sees a divided Democratic Party giving mixed signals to voters as the reason.He sees Propositions 41 and 42 as confusing and difficult to parse for voters, arguing its supporters carefully disguised the fact that their passage would nullify the billionaire tax. Close results in those races could reflect that voter confusion.“I’ve spent my life in politics, and I wasn’t sure where to come down,” Adams added.Kimberly Nalder, a political science professor at Sacramento State, also saw that division among Democrats as a major factor in Proposition 40’s failure.“When voters are burdened by the complex decision-making on propositions, they look for cues and shortcuts,” she said in a statement to Courthouse News, adding: “Prop 40’s result is perhaps surprising to those who have been following the massive anti-billionaire sentiment nationwide, yet prominent Democrats also opposed it, and that message broke through to enough voters to apparently defeat it.”Bryant said the argument that billionaires would leave California if Proposition 40 passed likely was compelling for many voters. But she also said that an argument focused on state lawmakers, who could later tweak Proposition 40 and include lower-income people if it had passed, worked well.On the ballotMeasures like voter ID and a billionaire tax took up much of the air in the political sphere, though voters decided several other statewide propositions.Proposition 5 sought to change how California conducts recall elections. As of Wednesday morning, it was narrowly passing 50.3% to 49.7%.Currently, one election determines whether to recall an elected official and, if successful, who replaces them. The passage of Proposition 5 would mean two separate elections occur — one to recall and another to replace.Nalder said the measure’s current close margin shows the limits of partisan cues.“Though Democrats are behind the measure, no campaign materialized and no money was spent on either side,” she added. “Voters were left to puzzle through the implications based largely on the text of the thing.”Bryant pointed to Proposition 38, a bond measure, as a surprise to her. The measure would enable an $8.4 billion bond issuance to fund research into diseases like cancer, and other diseases that immunotherapy can help.It’s currently passing 55.7% to 44.3%.Bryant said the measure received little media attention, though voters often asked her about it at forums she attended.“I was kind of surprised that it was ahead last night,” she added.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads