Cabo Verde’s presidential election: the stakes in one of Africa’s most stable democracies

Cape Verde’s presidential election takes place against the backdrop of a democratic record that remains unusual in its regional context. The country, made up of an archipelago of islands off the coast of west Africa, has sustained multiparty competition for more than three decades. It has had peaceful transfers of power and no coups or military takeovers since independence from Portugal in 1975. Cabo Verde (population 530,000) is a semi-presidential republic in which the president is directly elected. The prime minister is appointed by the president in light of parliamentary election results, and heads a government that is politically accountable to the national assembly. The president represents the state and safeguards the constitution, while the prime minister and the government conduct public policy. The presidency nevertheless carries substantial political weight. The president can veto legislation, request constitutional review and, under certain conditions, dissolve parliament. The office also entails responsibilities in foreign affairs and national defence. The president is, therefore, not the principal policymaker. However, the way in which these powers are exercised can become particularly consequential when the president and prime minister belong to opposing political camps. This might indeed be the outcome of the 15 November 2026 election. I am a political communication specialist who has researched the dynamics of Cabo Verde’s presidential elections. In my view the central test for the upcoming poll will be whether the country’s institutions can continue to function effectively while preserving the important distinction between the presidency and the government. The background Cape Verde’s political climate is shaped by a recent change of government. The African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde returned to office after winning the May 2026 parliamentary election. This ended 10 years of government by the Movement for Democracy, which now forms the opposition. The African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde’s victory reflected growing voter dissatisfaction with a decade of rule by the Movement for Democracy. This is particularly over poor inter-island transport, economic difficulties, living conditions and public security. The change of government renewed questions about the balance of power between the president, the new government and parliament, as well as the opposition’s ability to hold the ruling party accountable. The forthcoming presidential election will, therefore, test not only party loyalties but also voters’ expectations of the presidency and its role in the political system. The two main contenders are José Maria Neves, backed by the African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde, and Joana Rosa, supported by the Movement for Democracy. Neves previously served as prime minister between 2001 and 2016. Rosa, a former minister of justice, is the first woman to run for president in Cabo Verde. They face Antero Tavares, Casimiro de Pina, Gilson Alves and Loisito Sousa. These four offer alternatives to the two parties that have dominated national politics since the introduction of multipartyism in 1991. These candidates are unlikely, however, to attract support on a scale that would challenge the two main contenders. The voters Together with political science researchers Danielton Delgado and Susana Rogeiro Nina, I published a paper that offers insight into the dynamics of presidential elections in Cabo Verde. Our 2019 study found that voters didn’t consistently use presidential contests to punish the governing party. Indeed, except in 2011 and 2021, every presidential election in the country was won by the candidate backed by the party that controlled parliament and the executive. Also, there was not a systematic advantage for independent candidates or candidates backed by smaller parties. The short interval – one to six months – between legislative and presidential elections may help explain this phenomenon, as presidential contests often take place during the governing party’s post-election “honeymoon period”. What’s different in the upcoming election? If Neves secures re-election, the presidency and government will be held by figures associated with the same party. This possibility is not unlikely. Since the introduction of multiparty democracy in 1991, every incumbent president who has sought a second term has been re-elected: António Mascarenhas Monteiro in 1996, Pedro Pires in 2006 and Jorge Carlos Fonseca in 2016. A victory for Neves could play out in one of two ways. It could facilitate cooperation, but it could also raise questions about the president’s independence from the government. In turn, a victory for Rosa, mirroring the patterns that emerged in 2011 and 2021, would create a situation of divided leadership, with a Movement for Democracy-backed president working alongside an African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde government. Such an arrangement is not inherently problematic. Nevertheless, it can require negotiation when constitutional responsibilities and political interests diverge. Cabo Verde has recent experience of this situation: between November 2021 and the formation of the new government in June 2026, Neves dealt with a Movement for Democracy government. This was led by Ulisses Correia e Silva. Despite their partisan differences, relations were generally characterised by institutional cooperation rather than open confrontation. In short, whoever wins will face a distinct institutional challenge. Neves will have to balance his party affiliation with the constitutional responsibility to act as head of state. Rosa will need to establish a working relationship with a government led by her political opponents.