Burnham's NHS-style social care vow could cost more than £18bn a year and take 'decades' to deliver, warns Government expert

See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Published: 04:29 EDT, 28 September 2026 | Updated: 04:32 EDT, 28 September 2026 Andy Burnham's NHS-style social care vow could take 'decades' to deliver and cost far more than £18billion a year, a top expert warned today.Sir Andrew Dilnot, who wrote a landmark Government review, said the PM had effectively delayed any solution to the crisis until after the next election.The economist also cautioned that Mr Burnham was hugely underestimating the cost to the taxpayer of having a 'free' social care system, and how long it would take to implement. Mr Burnham used the first day of Labour's annual conference in Liverpool yesterday to promise he will 'grasp the nettle' of reform.He said the recent death of his father Roy, who was in a care home with Alzheimer's, had redoubled his determination to act. The PM said a final decision on the funding model would depend on the outcome of a review by Whitehall troubleshooter Louise Casey, and go into the next Labour manifesto. But he said he was willing to take 'unpopular' decisions to 'rip the plaster off' a problem that successive governments have failed to deal with. Sir Andrew Dilnot, who wrote a landmark Government review of social care, said the PM had effectively delayed any solution to the crisis until after the next electionThere are rumours that downgrading the state pension 'triple lock' could help fund the move, while Mr Burnham said his proposal for a 10 per cent 'death tax' on all inheritances remained 'on the table'. The premier denied that the care policy would cost the £18billion a year estimated by experts, although he declined to give a figure. Interviewed on BBC Radio 4's Today programme this morning, Sir Andrew said Mr Burnham's announcement suggested 'if anything change is now further away' than had been implied previously.'It now looks like this is a set of proposals that will go into the manifesto, so not for implementation until after the election in 2029, if that is when it is,' Sir Andrew said.'But he did also talk about making social care free. And what he implied was that he wanted social care to be completely free...'So I think what he is really talking about probably is social care that looks very like the NHS, that it will be entirely free.'Sir Andrew said that would cost a 'very substantial sum of money', and be far more comprehensive than in Scotland – where many people needing residential care still face large bills.The economist - who penned a review under the Coalition proposing an £80,000 cap on care costs - warned Mr Burnham was 'envisaging something that could take many years, even many decades before it came to fruition'.He said the Government now seemed to be 'beginning a move' that would not be realised 'very quickly'.Sir Andrew said he was 'puzzled' by Mr Burnham's claim that the costs could be lower than £18billion a year.'If we were to make social care free in the same way that health care is largely free then I think we would be talking about an amount of money very much in excess of £18billion,' he said.'If we were to be talking about simply something like the Scottish model then we might be talking about a sum that was only around half of the £18billion.'But that would fail the challenges that Mr Burnham himself has said, that he wants people not to face losing everything, not to face the catastrophic risks...'