‘Burnham bounce’ puts Labour ahead in poll, but can it last?

Two new opinion polls have shown Labour benefiting from a clear ‘Burnham bounce’ following the ousting of Sir Keir Starmer from number 10. In the week since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister Labour have overtaken Reform to lead a national poll for the first time in 16 months and to draw level with them in another. It follows a raft of popular policy announcements from the new PM, and pollsters suggesting voters are willing to “give him a chance”. Shorts But they also warn that despite better communication, ultimately the new Prime Minister, and the next General Election, will be decided by results.. Polling by the think tank More in Common has put Labour four points ahead of Nigel Farage’s party, making it the first time Reform has not led a public poll since April 2025. According to the research, 28 per cent of voters surveyed said they would vote for Labour if an election were to be held tomorrow, with Reform on 24, the Tories on 22 and, crucially, the Greens down to just 8 per cent. This was a rise of 4 percentage points for Labour over last, and a drop of 2 points for Reform and three for the Greens over last week’s poll, with the Lib Dems also up by one point to 12 percent. Evidence of a ‘Burnham bounce’ It marks the latest in an ongoing trend and provides the strongest evidence of a “Burnham bounce” following the new Labour leader’s ousting of Sir Keir Starmer. The figures also confirm polling conducted by BMG Polling on behalf of The i Paper last month, which predicted Labour would overtake Reform with Burnham at the helm. That poll, carried out before Burnham became leader, put Labour on 27 per cent if he took over from Sir Keir Starmer, with Reform on 26 per cent. A separate poll by YouGov published on Monday had Labour and Reform level on 22 per cent, with the Tories on 21 per cent. Pollsters have warned against trying to read too much into a single poll, but More in Common’s director Luke Tryl suggested that the results showed for the first time that the “contours of the next election look much more malleable than they did a few months ago”. Votes from Greens and Reform “Obviously it’s just one poll, in a first week when Parliament isn’t sitting and it’s just been good news. But it’s nonetheless significant that Reform haven’t been behind in a poll for over a year. What’s more it looks like Labour is winning votes from left and right so both [Zack] Polanski’s Greens and Reform are dropping back,” Tryl said. The pollster added that focus groups conducted last week showed that Burnham’s first week in power had “landed very well with people”. In a raft of announcements, Burnham announced £340m to end rough sleeping, VAT would be cut from energy bills saving families around £45 a year, a cut in business rates for pubs and venues and a reduction of the bus fare cap from £3 to £2 for a single journey. Tryl added: “It had cut through and people got the idea that ‘every little helps’ – he’d demonstrated the politics of ‘trying’. They weren’t saying they were fully sold, but they were saying we’ll give him a hearing which Starmer had lost,” Tryll added. The ongoing questions surrounding Farage and his £5m gift from the Thai-based cryptobillionaire Christopher Harborne, and the revelations about his dealings with close confidante and convicted fraudster George Cottrell have hindered Reform’s ability to command the airwaves. “So much of their success came through dominating the attention economy and yet the Clacton by-election and their wider struggles are making it much harder for them to own the agenda like they did last year,” Tryl said. Labour would still fall short of a majority If the More in Common poll was replicated at the next general election, Labour would fall short of securing a majority but would become the biggest party with 268 seats, ahead of the Tories on 120 and Reform on 109. Recent polls from across different pollsters have shown a narrowing in the gap between Labour and Reform in recent weeks, with polling from Deltapoll earlier this month showing Labour and Reform neck and neck on 28 per cent each. Even the lesser known pollster FindOutNow, which often skews more heavily to Reform, showed last week that Labour had gained three points to close Reform’s lead to just two points. A separate polling expert, Chris Hopkins from Savanta, said that evidence for a “Burnham Bounce seemingly began a few weeks ago, with polling beginning to move in Labour’s favour since the Makerfield by-election”. But while he said political momentum is currently with the new Prime Minister, he warned that sustaining the bounce is the “challenge”. “Burnham has started well, with his new communications strategy and early policy announcements being well-received by the commentariat, and this will trickle down to the public,” Hopkins said. “But ultimately he will be judged not on his TikToks, but on his Budget, on his ability to address the rising cost of living, and on his ability to govern effectively. For all of those, it is far too early to tell whether Burnham is an improvement on what has come before.” The Prime Minister insisted he was not “getting carried away by any poll”, but added that he was “pleased to have kind of made a start where hopefully I’ve connected with people”. “I am talking a lot about Britain believing again – and I’m not going to apologise for that,” Burnham said.