Bulgaria’s Presidential Elections Will Test PM Radev’s Grip on Power

Following a seemingly endless series of elections in Bulgaria from 2021 to 2026, former Bulgarian President Rumen Radev won in a landslide election in April and successfully formed a government and became prime minister. But now the country is bracing for presidential elections on October 25. If Radev’s former Vice President Iliana Iotova wins, the prime minister and his Progressive Bulgaria party will secure major political power. Iotova’s potential win might also have geopolitical stakes for Ukraine and Europe. In a campaign event in Sofia on September 8 she said that “the war in Ukraine cannot be solved through military means” and that “more weapons and wasted billions bring more victims and are pitting Orthodox nations against each other”. This is in tune with Radev’s softer approach to the Kremlin. The centre-right party GERB – which was the dominant power in Bulgaria from 2008 to 2025 and is now in second place – has surprisingly abstained from nominating a candidate for president. This may be a sign of the party being in free-fall after losing to Radev in April or at least a tactical retreat. However, several GERB members ended up in Iotova's initiative committee, the list of people endorsing an independent candidate. The committee also included pro-Russia voices, previously socialist-affiliated politicians and various figures in sports and entertainment. Expectations are building around three of the candidates: the acting President Iliana Iotova, the pro-EU and opposition-minded former interim Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov, and the former interim agriculture minister Ivan Hristanov. All are running as independents, though each is supported, more or less directly, by different parties. This is part of a trend – individual personalities are being foregrounded rather than party members with political baggage. “We’re about to see a campaign dominated by battling social media narratives, rallying cries adapted for different audiences and quite a lot of populist promises,” says Ivaylo Madzharov from Active Politics, a youth-led organisation popular on Instagram and TikTok for their explainers on local politics. Madzharov sees Iotova as a clear favourite in the election, though, he says, surprises are possible.