Brutal: Delta Struggling Across The Pacific, Making Even American Look Good

Delta is currently making a huge push to expand across the Pacific, claiming it wants to beat United there. It’s a region in which Delta has been weak in recent years, at least when it comes to serving anything beyond Seoul Incheon (ICN), the hub for joint venture partner Korean Air. A few months ago, I took a look at the data of how poorly Delta is performing across the Pacific, following the “big three” carriers reporting their Q2 2026 earnings. With all three of the airlines having now reported their Q3 2026 earnings, I’d like to take a look at the latest. Are things getting better or worse for Delta? The math on Delta’s expansion isn’t pretty right nowWhat can we make of Delta’s issues across the Pacific?Bottom line The math on Delta’s expansion isn’t pretty right now With American, Delta, and United, having all reported their Q3 2026 earnings, I think it’s interesting to look at how all airlines did across the Pacific in the quarter, at least directionally. I’m not doing this to pick on Delta (I swear), and I’ll explain more later. But first let’s look at the actual math, and thanks to JonNYC for bringing this up. I’d like to compare performance across the Pacific in the last two quarters between American, Delta, and United. Just to define the terms here: Yield is the passenger revenue divided by the number of revenue passenger miles flown, so it reflects what people are actually paying to fly, and doesn’t account for empty seats PRASM is the passenger revenue per available seat mile, and you calculate that by taking the total passenger revenue and dividing it by the number of seats, so it factors in empty seats ASMs refers to available seat miles, meaning the total number of miles flown by a plane multiplied by the number of available seats Load factor refers to the percentage of seats actually filled on flights Below is a comparison of Q3 2026 year-over-year Pacific performance for American, Delta, and United. Q3 2026 detailsAmericanDeltaUnitedYield+14.8%+7%+10.8%PRASM+11.3%+5%+10.9%Capacity (ASMs)+6.6%+8%+5.0%Load factor−2.6 points−2.0 points+0.1 points As you can see, there’s a major outlier here. To put this into basic terms: American saw the biggest increase in the average fare paid, with a significant increase in revenue per available seat, despite a decrease in load factor; yield growth more than double outpaced capacity growth, which is excellent Delta saw a bigger increase in capacity than in yield and revenue per available seat mile, despite fares being up so much across the board United had very balanced growth across the Pacific, adding a modest amount of capacity, while being the only airline to see load factor go up, and also commanding higher fares As you can see, Delta was the outlier here, and was the only airline where capacity growth exceeded yield growth. Below is the chart for Q2 2026. As you can see, Delta was also the negative outlier then, but the situation has gotten even worse since then. Q2 2026 detailsAmericanDeltaUnitedYield+17.3%+7%+10.9%PRASM+15.1%+7%+14.0%Capacity (ASMs)+8.2%+8%+4.1%Load factor−1.7 points−1.0 points+2.3 points What can we make of Delta’s issues across the Pacific? Please hear me out, because I’m not writing this to rag on Delta. Quite to the contrary, I’m happy to see an airline growing across the Pacific, and trying to compete with United. Airline data is fascinating, because it’s both endless and insightful, and also doesn’t tell the full story, given the complexity of airline revenue performance. When I look at airline data, what I find most interesting is directional trends among competitors. Delta is a very well run airline, all things considered, and has been the most profitable US carrier for many years now. In most areas, Delta outperforms competitors. So it’s really interesting to see one region where Delta has now lagged both United and American in two consecutive quarters. I have to imagine these two quarters weren’t exceptions, and that performance will continue to get worse for Delta before it gets better, as the airline continues to add new routes. Now, that’s largely fair enough, because it takes time for growth to become profitable. I think I have two takeaways here. First, I can rationalize why American has sort of given up on Asia, and has such a minimal presence: It’s really hard to make money as a US airline flying across the Pacific, unless you have the perfect hub, and have other advantages, like being the established player American actually seems to be doing well in Asia for the limited number of routes that it operates How will Delta’s Pacific expansion evolve? Second, one wonders if Delta will just struggle as it continues to grow, or if Delta has a major, structural disadvantage to United, which it can’t overcome. Delta’s split hub strategy between Los Angeles (LAX) and Seattle (SEA) is just much more poorly positioned than United’s primary hub in San Francisco (SFO), in terms of pricing power, local loyalty, connectivity, etc. Delta recently added Hong Kong (HKG) flights, and it’s a market United serves four times daily. So the fact that Delta’s performance has only worsened while United’s performance has continued to remain strong despite the new competition isn’t exactly a great sign. United CEO Scott Kirby probably wasn’t wrong when he mocked Delta’s recent transpacific expansion. United seems unfazed by Delta’s Pacific growth Bottom line Delta’s numbers across the Pacific aren’t pretty. While both United and American are seeing yield growth significantly outpace capacity growth, the opposite has now been true for Delta for two quarters in a row. I don’t think this should come as much of a surprise, since it takes time to become profitable in new markets. However, one can’t help but wonder if this is just a temporary issue that will solve itself with time, or if Delta has a structural disadvantage here that it won’t be able to overcome. We’re only at the very early stages of Delta’s transpacific growth, if the airline is actually serious about overtaking United. What do you make of Delta’s Pacific situation?