Browns vs. Jets Week 5 player props: DraftKings odds vs. data projections

Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins runs against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first half. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.comBy Pete Truszkowski | Advance LocalThe Cleveland Browns have won three straight games and have another extremely winnable game on tap for Week 5 of the NFL season when they head east to play the New York Jets (1-3) at The Meadowlands. Despite the Jets’ record, they are 2.5-point home favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Browns have been underdogs in all five games to begin the season, but that hasn’t stopped them from posting a 3-1 record. Using trusted data analysis and machine learning, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of this matchup. Here is what the projection models are telling us about specific player performances compared to the latest betting markets ahead of Sunday’s matchup between the Jets and Browns. Touchdown Markets for Browns vs. Jets in Week 5PlayerFirst TD ProbabilityFirst TD OddsAnytime TD ProbabilityAnytime TD OddsNYJ Braelon Allen10.8%+47542.8%+100NYJ Garrett Wilson9.6%+80039.3%+150CLE Quinshon Judkins9.0%+65035.4%+140CLE Harold Fannin Jr.7.8%+110031.7%+235CLE Denzel Boston7.6%+110030.8%+210NYJ Kenyon Sadiq6.1%+100026.9%+225CLE KC Concepcion5.6%+160023.8%+330NYJ Isaiah Williams3.2%+190015.2%+425CLE Deshaun Watson3.1%+140013.8%+330First touchdown markets are a fun bet to make when watching a game, as payouts are high and the outcome is decided early.Heading into this matchup, DraftKings and Dimers are in agreement that Jets’ running-back Braelon Allen is most likely to score the first touchdown of the game. However, there is no real edge at the price set by oddsmakers. Anytime touchdown markets, although less lucrative, give users more chance to win throughout the game.Looking at the Dimers’ data compared to the DraftKings’ odds, there are three players in this matchup that stand out as decent bets:Garrett Wilson (NYJ): While not the best bet in the First TD market, Wilson’s probability of scoring at anytime, according to Dimers, translates to fair odds of +152, which is right in line with his price. Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE): Fannin has 7.8% chance to score the first touchdown, which results in fair odds of +1160, just slightly below the +1100 he’s available. His 31.7% chance at an anytime touchdown should result in odds of +215. However, DraftKings is offering +235, making Fannin to score anytime a good bet. KC Concepcion (CLE): Concepcion is another mid-range play worth exploring. His 23.8% chance of scoring results in fair odds of +320, which is lower than his actual odds of +330, making this a +EV selection. Top Player Prop Markets for Browns vs. JetsAnalyzing player props can help you get a deeper understanding of what teams are trying to do out there. In a world where everyone plays fantasy football, there is a high correlation between props and fantasy. Let’s dive into the props for Sunday’s game. Passing PropsPlayerDimers ProjectionDraftKings O/UOdds (O/U)Deshaun Watson204 ydsO/U 205.5-111/-113Geno Smith209 ydsO/U 203.5-111/-113Dimers’ projection is rather spot-on when it comes to where the oddsmakers expect these quarterbacks to finish. There is no value on either side of Deshaun Watson’s passing yardage prop. You can make the case for taking the over 203.5 passing yards for Geno Smith, but at a -111 price, those 5.5 yards might not be a big enough edge. Receiving PropsPlayerDimers ProjectionDraftKings O/UOddsGarrett Wilson (NYJ)74 ydsO/U 69.5(-112/-112)Denzel Boston (CLE)52 ydsO/U 48.5(-114/-110)KC Concepcion (CLE)44 ydsO/U 38.5(-112/-112)Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE)39 ydsO/U 36.5(-109/-115)Once again, there’s a lot of agreement between DraftKings and Dimers on these receiving totals. The biggest disparity comes with KC Concepcion, where he’s projected to get 5.5 more yards than his DraftKings over/under. If you’re looking to bet over on a Browns player, this is your biggest edge. NFL Prediction market sign-up bonusesBrowns and Jets fans around the country can use prediction markets to trade on the NFL as an alternative to standard betting. Here are the top options and available promo codes for new users:PlatformVerified codesNew-user offerKalshiCLEVELAND55, OREGONLIVE55, SILIVE55Deposit $25, get $55 ($80 total to trade)PolymarketCLEVE, SILIVE, CUSE, OREGON, MASS$25 bonus on a $10 deposit ($35 total to trade)MLB Kalshi promo code “CLEVELAND55” launches $55 bonus for Wednesday Night MLB Playoff SlateNew Polymarket promo code “CLEVE” extends $25 referral promo in time for Cowboys-Bucs on TNFExperts update Bengals vs. Dolphins NFL Week 5 prediction & oddsPolymarket referral code “CLEVE” enhances $25 bonus in OH for Padres-Brewers Game 3Kalshi extends $55 promo code “CLEVELAND55” for Brewers-Padres NDLS on MLB TuesdayLearn more about our gaming editorial staff.If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966 or the National Council on Program Gambling Helpline (NCPG) at 1-800-522-4700 or visit 1800gambler.net for more information. 21+ and present in Ohio. 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