Brewers Notes: Contreras, Megill, Vaughn

For the first time in their 57-year history, the Brewers are World Series champions. Perennially a contender despite bottom-tier payrolls and contributions from unheralded players, Milwaukee broke through with an disciplined offense (MLB-best 10.6% walk rate), terrific defense and baserunning, and a powerhouse bullpen that supported a rotation fronted by the NL’s likely Cy Young Award winner. It’s party time in Milwaukee for the time being, but the celebration can’t last long. The offseason begins today, and with it, critical decisions that will shape their chances of defending the World Series crown. The Brewers’ model by now is well known. They ponied up to sign Christian Yelich long-term back in March 2020, and they’ve more recently extended top prospects like Jackson Chourio, Aaron Ashby, Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara before they ever even played in the majors. Chourio, Pratt and Lara hadn’t even taken a single big league plate appearance when the trio signed respective long-term contracts guaranteeing them $82MM, $50.75MM and $31MM. That’s created some long-term continuity, but it’s a near-annual tradition for Milwaukee brass to make tough decisions and trade away star players who are on the cusp of free agency. Just in the past few years, the Brewers have traded Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Freddy Peralta when they were down to a year of club control (a year-plus for Hader, who was shipped out at the ’22 trade deadline). The Brewers now find themselves in this same position with catcher William Contreras and closer Trevor Megill. Both are free agents following the 2027 season. I briefly touched on this in this morning’s Top 40 Offseason Trade Candidate list, but it’s worth diving into at greater length. Despite the Brewers’ history, Megill and especially Contreras aren’t locks to be shipped out of town. Far from it. The Brewers tend to run payrolls in the bottom-third of the league, which has made it difficult to keep star players through their final arbitration seasons and still afford to carve out a competitive roster around them. This year’s World Series win ought to create more short-term payroll space. Andy McCullough and Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote this week that the Brewers privately believe the influx of postseason revenue will indeed give them more money with which to operate in the near future — certainly into 2027. Milwaukee holds a $14.5MM club option over Contreras, who is fresh off a World Series MVP win. Had he struggled through a poor season, they could’ve declined the option and tried to retain him in his final arbitration year at a lower price. However, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $14.6MM arbitration number for Contreras. Milwaukee will surely just pick the option up, knowing he’s locked in for next season. That’d still leave a decision as to whether to keep Contreras or, as they’ve done in the past with Hader, Burnes, Peralta, Williams, Jonathan Lucroy and others, cash him in for a haul of prospects. It’d be a devastating move for the fan base and clubhouse alike, but that’s the sort of bitter pill the baseball operations staff has been willing to swallow in order to keep the club competitive year after year. Contreras himself is only in this position because of that Hader trade. Milwaukee picked up outfielder Esteury Ruiz in that swap and, just a few months later, flipped Ruiz to the A’s in a three team trade that sent Contreras from Atlanta to Milwaukee. The other player the Brewers landed in exchange for Hader had a little something to do with this year’s World Series win, too: a left-handed pitching prospect by the name of Robert Gasser. It bears emphasizing, however, that not all Brewers stars are traded ahead of their final year of club control. Milwaukee opted to hang onto Willy Adames for his final season with the team and instead made him a qualifying offer after the 2024 campaign. That netted them a compensatory first-round pick when he signed with the Giants. They used the pick to select high school shortstop Brady Ebel, who now ranks among their seven to eight best prospects. McCullough and Sammon note that president of baseball operations Matt Arnold has previously cited Adames’ leadership qualities and all-around contributions at a premium defensive position as reasoning for keeping Adames rather than trading him for controllable prospects. That rings true for Contreras, too. It’s also worth highlighting that there’s no catcher-of-the-future waiting in the wings. Former top prospect Jeferson Quero had a poor showing in 2026. Milwaukee bought low on former Guardians backstop Bo Naylor at the trade deadline, but he’s effectively a lottery ticket — a former top prospect who raked as a rookie in 2023 but has been an all-glove catcher in 900 major league plate appearances since. With no immediate help on the horizon, the Brewers would need to acquire a new starting catcher to replace the reigning World Series MVP. That’s not exactly an appealing gambit. The other approach the Brewers could consider would be to take a run at signing Contreras long-term. Doing so now would mean signing him to what would likely be only the third nine-figure deal in franchise history, joining Yelich and Ryan Braun. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Brewers made one run at signing Contreras to a long-term deal back in 2025. Milwaukee offered a three-year deal worth $35MM that contained a club option for an additional season. Unsurprisingly, that didn’t get it done. Contreras earned $9.4MM this season and should come in at $14.5MM next year. They couldn’t have known exactly where his arb numbers would land at the time but probably had a ballpark idea — as did his reps at Ocatgon. With Contreras taking home about $24MM between his final two arb years, Milwaukee’s offer effectively amounted to buying out one free agent year for $11MM. Even if they felt he’d come in around $22MM over his final two arb years, that offer was trying to buy out one free agent year at a cost of around $13MM — while tacking on a fourth possible year via club option. Heyman writes that the offer was deemed low enough that the Contreras camp didn’t bother countering. That doesn’t preclude a larger offer that makes Contreras think about it this time around, however. Next year’s salary is more or less in place. An extension would probably need to cover five additional seasons, though perhaps a hearty AAV over four additional years would make him consider the proposal. Milwaukee’s deal with Yelich runs through 2028. The two extensions would only need to overlap by one year. Even if Brewers ownership were only comfortable with one $20MM+ annual salary, they could backload a Contreras extension slightly and have him become their highest-paid player beginning in ’29, when Yelich is off the books (or re-signed at a lower rate). With Megill, who’ll turn 33 in December, it’s another story. He’s four years older than Contreras. While the Brewers don’t have a clear catcher alternative waiting in the wings, they’re comically deep in bullpen arms. Aaron Ashby’s postseason star turn could position him to step into the ninth. Abner Uribe, DL Hall and underrated righty Grant Anderson will all be back next year. And the Brewers could stake a real claim to being the industry leader in unearthing diamonds in the rough out in the bullpen. Megill himself, acquired for a PTBNL after being designated for assignment by multiple teams, is proof of concept in that regard. We don’t know if the qualifying offer system will remain in place in a new CBA, but if it does, he’s not the type of player who’d command that pricey one-year offer. Contreras very much is, so even if Milwaukee can’t extend him, they’d be compensated for his departure. Megill would be much likelier to leave for no compensation. He’d also draw sizable interest around the league. Most contenders wouldn’t bat an eye at his $8MM projected salary — not coming off 61 2/3 innings with a 2.63 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. He can absolutely fetch Milwaukee at least one notable prospect or a younger, less-established arm with more club control. The Brewers also face a decision on first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Swartz projects an $8.5MM salary for Vaughn, who was a part-time player in 2026 and posted a .306/.390/.444 in 331 trips to the plate. He saw regular action against lefties and pummeled them at a .336/.421/.517 clip while posting closer to average offense versus righties. The Brewers typically don’t spend much money at first base. Vaughn could reasonably be pressed into an everyday role, but Milwaukee could consider a trade or even a non-tender, thereby reallocating those dollars while pursuing a more affordable option at first.