Brent Crude Climbs Back Above $96 as Iran Tensions Escalate

Oil prices bounced back in early trading on Friday as geopolitical risk returns and optimism surrounding potential peace deals fades.Friday, November 6, 2026The initial days of the US’ post-midterms price collapse are gradually making way for a return to the pre-November status quo, with President Trump insinuating that he ‘doesn’t need a deal with Iran’ amidst intensifying Israeli pressure to resume military strikes against Tehran. A worsening outlook for any peaceful settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as several Houthi strikes on Saudi pumping stations, has pushed ICE Brent back to $96 per barrel, casting a shadow on the IEA’s hopes for a supply glut in Q4 2026.OPEC Bets on a Dramatic Demand Rebound in 2027. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its 2026 demand growth forecast steady at 180,000 b/d, whilst ramping up its 2027 rise in global consumption to 2.55 million b/d, despite weakening Chinese demand and rising non-OPEC supply.Saudi Output Surges to Pre-War Levels Yet Cannot Be Seen. The Saudi Energy Ministry reported a 26% month-on-month jump in its oil production to 10.56 million b/d last month; however, its supply to the market was only 9.2 million b/d—suggesting Saudi Aramco puts some 40 million barrels into inventories.Libya Turns to LNG as Domestic Gas Falls Short. The Libyan government is considering launching a floating LNG regasification unit from summer 2027 to replace costly diesel in power generation, as the country’s 1.2 BCf/d domestic gas production is insufficient to meet rising industrial demand.White House Poised to Extend Jones Act Relief. The Trump administration is reportedly seeking to extend a waiver on the Jones Act, running out on November 15, planning to issue case-by-case waivers that would let more foreign tankers move commodities between US ports, easing logistical bottlenecks.Record LME Backwardation Signals Aluminium Trouble. Aluminium’s cash premium over three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange surged to almost $180 per tonne this week as most of LME stocks were of Russian origin, with concentrated warrant ownership raising risks of a short squeeze.BP in Talks to Farm Out Stake in Giant Discovery. UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) is reportedly in talks with Brazilian state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) to sell a stake in the 8-billion-barrel Bumerangue discovery, its largest in 25 years, as it seeks to tap into the latter’s deepwater and CO2-separation expertise.Qatar Sees Its First Term LNG Deal Termination. Polish energy company Orlen will terminate its 1 mtpa long-term LNG supply contract with QatarEnergy within the next 60 days after the Qatari LNG giant declared force majeure on its European deliveries, retaining another 1 mtpa agreement through 2034.CNOOC Reports Major Ultra-Deep Gas Discovery. China’s offshore specialist CNOOC (SHA:600938) announced an ultra-deep gas discovery in the Bohai Sea, drilling to 5,770 m through volcanic formations and encountering more than 120 m of gas-bearing pay, with its first well yielding around 28 MMCf/d.China Car Sales Plunging Back to 2014 Levels. China's domestic passenger vehicle sales may fall below 19 million units this year for the first time since 2014, according to the country’s car association CAAM, with overall October sales falling 9.2% year-on-year despite continuous growth in the Chinese EV segment.Exxon Challenges EU Carbon-Capture Rules in Arbitration. US oil giant ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has launched confidential arbitration against the EU over Brussels’ Net-Zero Industry Act rules requiring oil and gas companies to develop CO2 storage by 2030, arguing that no viable capture market exists.India Seeks to Replicate China’s Coal Boom. India’s top private refiner Reliance is planning to invest in a $4.6 billion coal-to-gas project in the northern state of Andhra Pradesh, supporting India's goal of 100 million tonnes annual gasification capacity by 2030 as New Delhi seeks to reduce its import dependence.US Firms Shun Russian Diesel Despite Sanctions Waiver. US companies are unlikely to import Russian diesel despite a waiver allowing up to 1 million tonnes per month, as banks and ports fear legal exposure, with the Agioi Fanendes product tanker anchored some 400 nautical miles from the US coast.Norway Loses Oil-Permit Case, but Production Continues. Norway’s Supreme Court invalidated permits for the Breidablikk, Tyrving and Yggdrasil fields over inadequate assessment of downstream emissions, tightening the government’s future permitting processes yet stopping short of actual production curbs.UK Targets Russia’s New Arctic Oil Trade. The UK’s Burnham government slapped new sanctions on Russian oil and gas companies, targeting the recently launched 600,000 b/d Vostok Oil project as well as five tankers and three Dubai-based traders, widening pressure on new export routes and intermediaries.Copper Set for Longest Losing Run in Two Years. Jensen Huang’s Nvidia debacle and a weakening investor interest in the AI buildout added to copper’s travails as the transition metal posted its fifth straight weekly loss, falling below $13,500 per tonne and slashing its year-to-date price rally to just 8%.By Michael Kern for Oilprice.comMore Top Reads From Oilprice.comGlobal Power Grid Expansion Surges 50% to Record HighPakistan Scrambles for LNG as Winter Gas Crisis DeepensIran Rules Out Return of UN Nuclear Inspectors as U.S. War Talks Stall