Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro beats polls in presidential vote, faces Lula in runoff

Brasilia, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro | Updated Oct. 04, 2026, 8:17 p.m. ET | 4 min read Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will face President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the runoff of a presidential election, the country’s electoral authority says.Mr. Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro who hopes to return his father’s right-wing movement to power, is opposing leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth term, in a campaign dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of U.S. meddling.With just over 97% of the ballots counted, the right-wing challenger took 47.45% of valid votes in the first round, beating the forecasts in most private surveys. Mr. Lula received 44.66% of the votes. Surveys have shown them polling roughly even in an October 25 runoff.Analysts told Reuters they believed Mr. Bolsonaro was receiving “protest votes” of people voting against Mr. Lula rather than for the right-wing senator - votes they had been expected to save until a second round.A victory for the senator would extend a wave of wins across Latin America by right-wing candidates aligned with President Donald Trump, while the incumbent’s reelection could create a headache for Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security. While polls right up until Saturday showed Mr. Lula would likely lead the first round but not avoid a runoff, Mr. Bolsonaro told journalists in Rio de Janeiro he was confident he could win the presidency in the first round, citing voters’ frustration with his chief opponent.Mr. Bolsonaro was counting on “a protest vote from people who would otherwise vote for another candidate but are opposed to Lula,” he said. “I hope it’s enough to secure a victory in the first round.”Thaise Lima, a lawyer on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to get Mr. Lula’s Workers’ Party out of office.“I don’t think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next few minutes,” she said.Fernando Tempel, a management consultant, told Reuters he was voting for Mr. Bolsonaro despite initially planning to vote for Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state. On the other hand, Mr. Lula’s allies have warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize election results if he wins, pointing to an aborted effort to send U.S. officials to Brazil.“What is at stake is the future of Brazil,” Mr. Lula said after voting in Sao Bernardo do Campo, in Sao Paulo state.Pedro Palacio, voting in Brasilia alongside his wife, Andreia, and their two sons and two dogs, all of whom wore outfits supporting the president, said, ”We are confident in our President Lula, who will fight for national sovereignty.”President Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Senator Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.As of Sunday afternoon, the election was proceeding normally, Brazil’s electoral court chief Kassio Nunes Marques said in a press conference. “Teams monitoring international risks have not identified any risks whatsoever,” he said.Reuters reported on Wednesday that Brazilian intelligence officials briefed a French and German delegation on alleged U.S. and Russian interference before the election. The U.S. has rejected claims ​of interference.Despite falling inequality and unemployment, Mr. Lula has struggled to win over voters grappling with high living costs, heavy household debt and the threat of street crime and more pervasive gang activity.Mr. Bolsonaro has sought to capitalize on cost-of-living concerns, while Mr. Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families.Rising spending and public debt above 82% of GDP have stoked fiscal concerns that Brazil’s next president will need to address. The government lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next to 2.0% and 2.3% respectively.Overshadowing the policy debate, a scandal surrounding the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil’s political class and renewed public anger over corruption. Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier this year and accused of a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. The investigation has probed the banker’s ties to figures from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, widely perceived as an ally of Mr. Lula, to Mr. Bolsonaro, who is being investigated for money laundering tied to the case by the federal police. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. Mr. Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing.(Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu, Brendan O’Boyle, Ricardo Brito and Marcela Ayres in Brasilia, Luciana Magalhaes, Oliver Griffin and Fernando Cardoso in Sao Paulo, Rodrigo Viga Gaier, in Rio de Janeiro; Writing by Brendan O’Boyle and Oliver Griffin; Editing by Brad Haynes, Aurora Ellis and Alison Williams) ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to “speak the truth in love.” Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.