‘Boy, they like him’: Farage’s by-election win is guaranteed – but success is not

Nigel Farage will jostle for elbow room as he and 33 other candidates stand on the platform in the early hours of Friday morning to hear the Clacton-on-Sea returning officer declare him the winner of his self-imposed by-election. There is one candidate in particular he will be keen to avoid standing next to, however: Count Binface. With the other main parties agreeing not to field candidates, Count Binface is galvanising the anti-Farage vote. Nowhere near enough to beat him, but perhaps enough to embarrass him should the satirical candidate gain a strong second place. Shorts Photographs and videos of Binface congratulating Farage will only reinforce the narrative pushed by his opponents that in calling the by-election, Farage has made a rare misstep. Turn of fortunes for Farage It will cap a worrying turn of fortunes for the Reform UK leader, who has seen his party lead the polls for more than a year, raising the prospect he could be Prime Minister, priming Labour to ditch Sir Keir Starmer in favour of Andy Burnham. Burnham has now wiped that poll lead out and Farage’s personal ratings are slipping. He will also remain embroiled in scrutiny over financial donations – despite resigning as Clacton MP to trigger the by-election in a bid to put such scrutiny to bed. Small boat arrivals are significantly down and his plan outlined on Monday to turn back Channel migrants with the Navy was knocked down tout suite by the French. The Clacton by-election has been likened to some voters as a circus. There are 34 candidates – the most for a by-election in British history. Others involved include professional controversialist Laurence Fox, Traveller influencer Trewley Precious, and John Stevens, who wants to rejoin the European Union. Of all the alternative candidates, Count Binface is expected to perform the best after capturing the public imagination and £90,000 in crowd-sourced funding. Binface is the satirical alter ego of comedian Jon Harvey, who has previously stood in four parliamentary elections and two London mayoral elections. But while the overall outcome is not in doubt, the margin of victory on Friday could be crucial in determining whether Farage is able to recapture the precious momentum that has powered Reform’s political successes over the last 15 months, and whether recent events are a bump in the road for Farage, or the beginning of the end for his political insurgency. Financial scrutiny Since May, Farage has been under investigation by the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner for failing to declare a £5m gift he received from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. Farage says he did not need to declare it as it was personal gift before he re-entered politics. Compounding that, a Sunday Times report last month alleged he’d also failed to declare benefits including staff, security and housing paid for by longtime friend, “Posh” George Cottrell. The police are also now investigating donations relating to deputy leader Richard Tice and Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick (all deny wrongdoing). In July, Farage called the by-election determined to secure a mandate from his constituents, rather than what he dubs the establishment. He also claimed he is the most targeted politician in the country for political violence. Just two days’ later, the murder of party spokeswoman Ann Widdecombe appeared to reinforce his point, although police are yet to confirm a motive in the case. Financial questions are not the only problem Farage is having to contend with. A “Burnham Bounce” has seen Labour overhaul Reform in the polls for the first time since April 2025. Reform is also facing renewed competition on its preferred political territory of immigration. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has been setting out her own policy stall – including restricting social housing eligibility for foreign nationals – while Labour touts a 40 per cent reduction in small boat crossings compared to last year (although the anti-immigrant disorder in Thetford, Norfolk, shows that it remains a combustible issue). Farage fight back Farage is seeking to turn the political conversation away from the negative headlines which have dogged him. He spent last week talking up the issue of migration. On Monday he announced that if it wins power Reform would order the Royal Navy to intercept boats crossing the English Channel and return migrants to French ports, even if France disagreed. A still from Count Binface’s election video (Photo: Screen grab from X https://x.com/CountBinface/status/2085308902170583291) On Thursday, home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf said the party will jail directors of companies for up to five years and impose a fine of 10 per cent of their global turnover for employing illegal workers. The penalties already exist in law. More home affairs policy reveals are planned for this week, with Reform insiders claiming they have a “huge grid” of announcements in the run up to the party conference in Birmingham at the start of September. Winning re-election reactivates the investigation into the undeclared £5m gift and Cottrell-related benefits. If it ultimately recommends a suspension of over 10 sitting days, that would trigger a recall petition and potentially yet another by-election. But by effectively letting voters pre-endorse him, Farage is telling Parliament he doesn’t care about their rules. The i Paper understands the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards is working over the summer recess, meaning a conclusion into Farage’s financial affairs could arrive more swiftly than anticipated. Challenge from the right Amid the financial questions and polling dip, Farage was dealt a further curve ball when his political rival, Rupert Lowe, popped up to offer a pact with his own hard-right party, Restore Britain. In a 12-minute video Lowe addressed Farage directly by his first name, suggesting the two parties could work together and that they should put “personalities and our past disagreements aside for the good of the country”. But Lowe attached five conditions including mass deportation of illegal migrants including women and children, a ban on halal and kosher slaughter, the burqa, cousin marriage and “sharia courts”. A squabble quickly developed: Lowe accused Farage of promising to “call soon” and not following through Amid all the difficulties, Reform insiders have had some things to cheer about. Figures released last week showed that Reform received £22.8m in donations in 2025, by far the largest sum out of any other political party. Much of Reform’s funding came from a handful of large donors, including £9m from crypto billionaire Harborne, £1m from Reform’s treasurer, Nick Candy, and £250,000 from Fiona Cottrell, the mother of George. By comparison, the Conservatives received £15.2m in donations last year, while Labour brought in £6.5m, and the Green Party and Lib Dems received £2.7m and £2.6m respectively. Clacton calling Next week, however, Farage will be back in Clacton, as one of the longest ballot papers in British political history. At 90 cm long, the form is costing four times as much to print than regular ballot papers, the local council said. On election night, tables will be doubled up so tellers can spread the forms out. Even by calling the by-election, Farage has irritated some of his electors. Laura Smith, 43, a teaching assistant, is annoyed at the number of candidates who have descended on the town. “I think it’s made Clacton be on the map for the wrong reasons. I think it’s a bit of a joke and it’s a shame that it’s had to come to this,” she told The i Paper. A senior Reform source insisted the financial questions dogging Farage were not denting his appeal in Clacton, pointing to a Survation poll this week which showed 73 per cent of people in the constituency are planning to vote for him in the by-election, compared to 20 per cent backing Binface. “Everybody in Clacton knows about the £5m. Everybody,” they said. “Yet he’s getting a bigger proportion of the vote than he got at the general election. “They see it as an establishment stitch up. And despite what everybody says, he’s very popular down there,” the source added. “Whether they’re actually going to vote is a different matter. But boy they like him.” Lesley Hart, 70, says Farage’s financial issues are not cutting through in Clacton. (Photo: Alex Lancaster-Lennox/The i Paper) A well-connected Reform councillor also claimed stories about Farage and Reform finances were not cutting through with voters, and that if anything it had bolstered support. “On the doorstep it’s almost as if views are hardening even more. It comes across as an all-out establishment attack which is unfair against Nigel and Reform.” Clacton resident Lesley Hart, 70, a retired teacher, agreed that the issue of Farage’s campaign finance was not cutting through locally, but she believes it is having a wider impact across the country. Her view is backed up by BMG Research polling for The i Paper, which has shown Farage’s net approval fall significantly, with 49 per cent dissatisfied and only 23 per cent satisfied. “I suspect in this area most people will say, ‘Well, you know, everyone’s done some bad things in life, and let’s forget about it.’ I don’t think it will cut through particularly well in this area. I think nationally it is cutting through. From other people, you get a completely different view,” she said. “He portrays himself as one of the blokes down the pub, which is so far from the truth. But if you bring that up with somebody, they just don’t hear it. They don’t hear it at all; they don’t want to hear it. They’ve tried other things and nothing happens,” she told The i Paper. Farage is expected to win but amid the circus Reform strategists will be anxiously looking for figures on turnout and vote share. A landslide will be spun as vindication while a narrower-than-expected margin, or a strong Count Binface protest-vote showing, could be read as evidence that even loyal Reform voters have reservations.