Bowl projections: Slotting all 47 games as defining Week 10 reshapes College Football Playoff bracket

One of the most-anticipated weekends in the 12-year history of the College Football Playoff era delivered like we knew it would.Second-ranked Georgia made the selection committee's decision ahead of Tuesday's rankings awfully easy after disposing of Ole Miss in blowout fashion, while Notre Dame's win over previously-unbeaten and No. 1 Miami all but assures the Fighting Irish their spot in the bracket.And now comes the reshuffling across bowl and CFP projections — Indiana coach Curt Cignetti may disagree, but the SEC's noticeable inclusion in the selection committee's first rankings was quite revealing and magnifies that is the league to watch over the final weeks of the regular season. We've projected a couple three-loss SEC teams to get into the bracket as at-large selections. Five would set a new single-league record for most entries. Anchored by changes across our CFP projections, here's an update look at bowl picks and how the 12-team bracket could look a few weeks from now on Selection Sunday. Cricket CelebrationProjection: Jackson State vs. Alabama A&MSan Juan BowlProjection: Syracuse vs. Appalachian StateIt's either the Orange or Boston College in this spot from the ACC during bowl season's newest game. Their matchup on Nov. 21 could determine bowl eligibility if Syracuse beats NC State next week. Boston College has dropped back-to-back games, including Saturday's loss to Florida State, and travels to Notre Dame in Week 11 — not the position Bill O'Brien wants to be in with a 4-5 record at the moment.Salute to VeteransProjection: Buffalo vs. LouisianaFrisco Football ClassicProjection: Arkansas State vs. Georgia SouthernBoca Raton Projection: Western Michigan vs. MemphisAt 7-2 overall and 4-1 in conference play, Memphis is positioned to capitalize in the American following UTSA's blowout loss to FAU. North Texas still sits ahead, and tiebreakers could matter, but the assignment for Charles Huff hasn't changed: get to the conference championship game by winning out and pull for the Mean Green against UTSA.GasparillaProjection: Louisville vs. MinnesotaMyrtle BeachProjection: Marshall vs. UMassPuerto Rico Projection: Delaware vs. FAUPotato Projection: North Dakota State vs. OhioCure Projection: Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana TechIndependence Projection: UCF vs. Washington One win away from bowl eligibility, Scott Frost and the Knights were lucky to get past Kansas. UCF built a 19-point lead in the third quarter before the Jayhawks rattled off 25 straight points to take the lead with 1:06 remaining. That's when quarterback Alonza Barnett led UCF on a 10-play, 73-yard scoring drive in the final moments to help snap the program's 12-game road losing skid in Big 12 play. New OrleansProjection: JMU vs. Jacksonville StatePoinsettia Projection: Fresno State vs. Arizona StateFollowing a victory over Colorado in Week 10, the Sun Devils have alternated wins and losses throughout the campaign. That means they're one win shy of bowl eligibility, with UCF, Oklahoma State and Arizona remaining in Big 12 play down the stretch. Coach Kenny Dillingham squashed Florida State coaching rumors before the game, saying he's been there before — going back to last season when his name was tossed around during Michigan's search.Armed Forces Projection: West Virginia vs. ArmyFrisco BowlProjection: Liberty vs. New MexicoThe Lobos improved to 8-1 overall with Friday's 28-point win at Nevada, tightening their grip atop the Mountain West in the program's first game as a ranked team. New Mexico, No. 22 in the latest AP poll but nowhere to be found in the CFP Rankings, is hoping to find a spot inside the selection committee's second top 25 reveal on Tuesday night. New Mexico's currently battling Boise State for the Group of Six's playoff spot, with its only loss coming at Oklahoma early."That's something we can't control the outcome," Lobos coach Jason Eck said. "We can control our outcome of winning the conference title. ... Playing well, especially in these national TV games that are late, there's probably some voters from the selection committee watching from their couches. They saw a really good football team tonight." HawaiiProjection: Air Force vs. Texas StateWhat are the chances Texas State hangs on to G.J. Kinne this coaching cycle? With Baylor open and reportedly wanting a Texas native to lead, and the possibility of TCU making a move in the coming weeks with Sonny Dykes, the Bobcats are trying to keep their claws on their fourth-year leader. Entering Saturday's game at Oregon State, Kinne was 26-19 overall at the program, including three straight bowl wins.New Mexico Projection: Wyoming vs. UABMayoProjection: Duke vs. NorthwesternIt's been more than a decade (2012) since the Blue Devils have made the trek to Charlotte for this bowl game and should be viewed favorably when ACC bowl invites are handed out as a high-rated finisher. Nate Sheppard's fifth 100-yard rushing outing (and second 200-yard performance) carried Duke to a 38-point win at NC State in Week 10, and there are a couple more Manny Diaz's team could grab the rest of the way.PinstripeProjection: Wisconsin vs. Pittsburgh68 Ventures Projection: Tulsa vs. Miami (Ohio)Fenway Projection: Penn State vs. ECUESPN will be pushing eligible teams to its sponsored games in December, so while this one's not a Big Ten tie-in, Penn State could theoretically play in a baseball venue for the second straight postseason. ECU's back in the bowl picture this week following Friday night's 20-17 win over USF. North Texas, Memphis and UTSA are the leaders in the American, and the Pirates are a couple of games back. Cactus Projection: Michigan vs. Cincinnati BirminghamProjection: USF vs. Mississippi StateMississippi State was invited to play in the postseason last fall with five wins; why not again? Saturday's loss to Vanderbilt was the Bulldogs' fourth straight without Kamario Taylor and fifth consecutive overall since starting the season 4-0 and ranked 16th. Third-year coach Jeff Lebby is 3-20 now against SEC competition, with two of those wins coming this fall.MilitaryProjection: North Carolina vs. UTSAPop-TartsProjection: SMU vs. HoustonAlamoProjection: USC vs. Texas Tech Lincoln Riley and the Trojans are in a great position: win out and let the chips fall where they may. USC takes on Indiana next week in one of Week 11's most important games, one with heavy Big Ten title and playoff seeding implications. Ohio State has blown a tire in the conference, and UCLA looks beatable despite being unblemished. Speaking of which, the Trojans get Bob Chesney's squad in the regular-season finale.Texas Tech's in a similar position, though a bit clearer. With only one loss, the Red Raiders are in the Big 12 Championship Game by winning out and would be playing for their spot in the bracket against Utah in December. That's where you want to be if you're Joey McGuire at this point, given the setback at Cincinnati. The game at Oklahoma State in two weeks is the biggest left on the slate. Gator Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Ole MissDid anyone see that coming from Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels? Georgia took last season's CFP loss to Ole Miss personally and destroyed one of the nation's top teams Saturday night in Oxford. The two ranked wins for Ole Miss — LSU and Missouri — may not age well down the stretch after both versions of the Tigers lost in Week 10, and there's no other matchups the rest of the way that will shift the selection committee's attention.Music CityProjection: Texas A&M vs. IllinoisAnother situation in which the SEC might not be able to fill its tie-in here without a six-win team: the Aggies are smoldering under Mike Elko this fall, one year removed from playing a home playoff game. Texas A&M's lone SEC victory came against Arkansas, and one would assume the Aggies would need to get at least one more to be reasonably picked by ESPN to fill this slot. Illinois has won four straight, and trust us — Bret Bielema would love to beat up on the SEC during the postseason after Friday night's comments following his team's win over Nebraska.ReliaQuest Projection: Iowa vs. FloridaSun Projection: Clemson vs. Oregon StateLas VegasProjection: Arizona vs. South CarolinaThe Gamecocks' fourth straight win may have come at a loss after quarterback LaNorris Sellers hobbled to the sideline after his game-clinching touchdown run against Texas A&M with 90 seconds left. South Carolina was ranked 21st in the first CFP Rankings and has a trip to Arkansas next week before the home slate ends with potentially top-ranked Georgia. TexasProjection: Oklahoma State vs. MissouriGive us a little old-school Big 12 flavor in Houston. Oklahoma State and Missouri potentially sharing the Texas Bowl stage would bring familiarity, regional bragging rights and two fan bases anxious for a final view of their respective teams. These programs know each other, and something is refreshing about a bowl matchup with history attached instead of two strangers exchanging handshakes at midfield with limited rosters.CitrusProjection: Ohio State vs. LSUThe Buckeyes lost their second straight game without Julian Sayin at quarterback and major ground in the CFP discussion after Oregon's dismantling at Ohio Stadium. For the first time under Ryan Day, Ohio State has more questions than answers in November, and even winning the next three games may not be enough to convince the selection committee this team's worthy of at-large merit. Ohio State hasn't appeared in a Florida-based bowl game outside of the playoff since the Orange Bowl to end the 2013 campaign.After signing the nation's top-ranked transfer portal class ahead of his first season, Lane Kiffin's first go-around for the Tigers has been a forgettable one. LSU has no ranked wins following a 31-13 drubbing at the hands of Alabama, and time's running out on playoff hopes. Unless the Tigers can beat Texas and Tennessee over the next two weeks, Orlando could be the destination as one of the SEC's highest-ranked teams to not make the 12-team bracket. First ResponderProjection: Toledo vs. North TexasLibertyProjection: Baylor vs. AuburnArizona Projection: Nebraska vs. UNLVAfter another stinker on offense, Huskers coach Matt Rhule fired Dana Holgorsen amid a four-game skid. Days after Nebraska announced the re-signing of quarterback Anthony Colandrea, the Huskers scored just 13 points in Friday night's loss to Illinois. A once promising 5-0 start to the season has diminished with three games to play, and so does Nebraska's shot at one of the Big Ten's better bowl destinations.HolidayProjection: Wake Forest vs. OregonSeventy-seven points and quarterback Gio Lopez didn't play. That's how badly the Demon Deacons rolled Merrimack in what amounted to a glorified practice ahead of next week's game at SMU. We're projecting Wake Forest to be one of the last teams out in the Nos. 13-15 range in the final CFP after losing to Miami in the ACC Championship Game. Of course, that's a prediction for now.Dan Lanning's Ducks could be the highest-ranked three-loss team in the updated CFP top 25 next week after dismantling Ohio State in Columbus. Slotted No. 23 entering the weekend, Oregon scored 38 straight points after trailing by two touchdowns early and embarrassed the Buckeyes on the road for its second ranked win of the season (USC). College Football PlayoffProjection: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Notre DameCredit goes to Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish, who left no doubt against undermanned and top-ranked Miami at home on Saturday night. It was a necessary signature moment this season for Notre Dame, which should move into the top 10 of this week's CFP Rankings after saving its top performance for the biggest stage. We've had the Fighting Irish in our projected bracket for several weeks as the last team in, but they'll get a home game with an 11-1 finish if they win out.Backup quarterback Max Cutforth threw four touchdown passes with Maddux Madsen on the mend due to injury, and Boise State kept pace as the Group of Six's frontrunner. The only G6 team ranked by the selection committee last week, that should continue on Tuesday night unless New Mexico finds a spot at the back end of the top 25. Next week's home bout with Oregon State is a must-win to remain out front.Projection: No. 11 BYU at No. 6 AlabamaNotre Dame's win over Miami might've saved BYU's playoff hopes. It'll take winning out and the selection committee potentially taking a 10-win Cougars team over an 11-win, second-place Texas Tech in the Big 12, but it's plausible. BYU's win over the Fighting Irish last month stands as one of college football's best and is only strengthened by Notre Dame's victory against the Hurricanes. The selection committee didn't rank Tennessee ahead of Alabama in their first rankings despite the Vols' head-to-head beatdown, so why would that change four weeks from now if these two finish with identical records? That's the thought process here for putting the Crimson Tide in the No. 7 spot after beating LSU in Week 10. No SEC team has a more favorable home stretch after Kalen DeBoer all but locked in a berth in Baton Rouge.Projection: No. 10 Kentucky at No. 7 UCLAThe good news for the Wildcats? They had room to lose a game as one of the SEC's only two one-loss teams entering the weekend. Now, that margin for error is zero moving forward. As a nine-win team, the resume will not be good enough to get into the CFP, considering the rash of other at-large hopefuls with matching records that are coming. Kentucky, in this scenario, gets in at 10-2 overall, ending the campaign with wins over Missouri, Florida and Louisville.Meanwhile, the Bruins keep winning. They're 9-0 after Saturday's victory at Minnesota, and they're three games away from getting to the Big Ten Championship Game with a chance at a top-four seed with a backup quarterback, no less. We're not downgrading UCLA from a potential top-four seed, instead simply projecting Indiana wins out and defeats a one-loss Bruins squad in the Big Ten final.Projection: No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 TexasAfter an extra week to sit on that hard-to-stomach loss at South Carolina, Tennessee rebounded in a big way against Kentucky inside Neyland Stadium. And after Alabama's win at LSU, that only strengthens the Vols' double-digit win over the Crimson Tide last month — one would assume. Tennessee forced three turnovers in front of a sellout crowd against Kentucky and likely gave itself some breathing room with LSU looming in two weeks. A nine-win finish — including victories over Alabama and Kentucky — should be enough.Texas has four ranked wins according to the selection committee rankings — the most in the country — following a fourth-quarter flurry at Missouri. Arch Manning's three touchdown passes and an impressive showing from the Longhorns' defense against the Tigers' run game spearheaded this one. Facing one of the nation's toughest slates, Texas goes to LSU next weekend before finishing with Arkansas and Texas A&M. The resume's there already. Win nine, and you're in. Win out, and you're getting close to the No. 5 seed.QuarterfinalsPEACH BOWL — Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 TexasPeople were asking a few weeks ago if there was an elite team this season that could join Miami near the top? Well, the Bulldogs took that spot in our projection after their behind-the-woodshed showing at Ole Miss. The last thing Steve Sarkisian would want to see after getting past the first round would be playing Georgia in Atlanta, but that's how our projections shake out this week.ROSE BOWL — Projection: No. 2 Utah vs. No. 7 AlabamaBehind 266 total yards and four total touchdowns from quarterback Devon Dampier, the Utes moved to 9-0 after winning the most-anticipated Holy War in the rivalry's illustrious history against BYU. It was a top-10 matchup for the first time, and now, Utah has multiple wins over ranked teams with a chance at another in Week 11 against Arizona."Just like Devon does, he kind of put [the game] on his back," Utah coach Morgan Scalley said. "This guy is a warrior. He wins us football games."COTTON BOWL — Projection: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6 UCLASpeaking of the Hurricanes following their first loss, Miami will be a top-four seed as long as it wins out and handles whomever it plays in the ACC finale. By then, Malachi Toney should return to the lineup from his tightrope ankle surgery. If not, this team is significantly downgraded offensively, even with Heisman candidate Darian Mensah at quarterback.FIESTA BOWL — Projection: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 4 IndianaFor the fourth consecutive week, we've changed our projected champion in the Big Ten. Who knows, maybe it'll be USC after next week if the Trojans beat the Hoosiers. This comes down to trust, and Cignetti's shown us he can win close games in recent weeks even with subpar execution at quarterback. To win another title, however, Indiana needs to vastly improve over the next few games.SemifinalsORANGE BOWL — Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 5 Notre DameSUGAR BOWL — Projection: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 7 AlabamaCFP National ChampionshipLAS VEGAS, JAN. 25 — Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Miami