Bloomberg: Nigeria Emerges Biggest Climber, Jumps 4 Places to 8th Most Investable African Economy

• Overtakes Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Namibia •Survey cites gains in economic strength, fiscal position Nigeria has risen four places to eighth in the 2026 Bloomberg Economics Investment Risk-O-Meter, emerging as the biggest climber among the African economies assessed after recording improvements in economic strength, fiscal strength and external vulnerability. The latest Bloomberg scorecard, which measures the relative investment attractiveness and risks of 19 African economies, placed Nigeria ahead of Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia, with Mauritius occupying the top position. Bloomberg said Nigeria’s improved standing reflected gains in three of the five indicators used in its assessment, although the country continues to face significant fiscal, infrastructure and institutional challenges. “The continent’s biggest oil producer and refiner rose four places to eighth in the 2026 Bloomberg Economics Investment Risk-O-Meter, overtaking Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia as it improved in three of the five metrics assessed by the gauge, economic strength, fiscal strength and external vulnerability,” Bloomberg said. The improvement provides an external measure of the changes taking place in Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment since the administration of President Bola Tinubu embarked on a series of far-reaching reforms from 2023. Among the most significant were the removal of the petrol subsidy, the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market and changes to electricity tariffs, with the government arguing that the measures were necessary to eliminate distortions, improve fiscal sustainability and restore investor confidence. The reforms, however, have also imposed substantial adjustment costs on businesses and households, with higher energy, transportation and food costs contributing to inflationary pressures and weakening purchasing power. Nevertheless, the Bloomberg assessment suggests that the economy’s underlying indicators have strengthened sufficiently to improve Nigeria’s relative position against several other African markets. Nigeria’s economic expansion has remained positive throughout the period under review. Growth strengthened further in 2025 to 3.85 per cent, the strongest annual performance within the period cited in the assessment, before reaching 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 and 4.43 per cent in Q2 this year. The figures pointed to a gradual strengthening of economic activity following the initial disruption associated with the government’s reform programme, although growth remained below the level required to significantly alter living standards in a country with a rapidly expanding population. The Bloomberg ranking is therefore significant not necessarily because Nigeria has become a low-risk investment destination, but because its relative position has improved at a time when investors continue to reassess African markets amid divergent growth, fiscal and external conditions. Nigeria’s movement also came as some other major African economies lost ground. South Africa, which topped the Bloomberg ranking in the previous assessment, slipped one place, with weaker economic-growth prospects cited among the factors affecting its position. Botswana also fell two places. Mauritius replaced South Africa at the top of the 19-country ranking, underscoring the island nation’s continued relative strength across the indicators considered by Bloomberg Economics. For Nigeria, one of the most important areas of improvement identified by Bloomberg was fiscal strength, against the backdrop of years of weak government revenues, high debt-service costs and persistent budget deficits. The federal government’s revenue position has improved alongside higher crude oil production, stronger non-oil revenues and reforms designed to broaden the tax base. However, the fiscal position remained under considerable pressure because of the country’s large public debt stock and substantial debt-servicing obligations. Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) showed that Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N87.38 trillion as of June 30, 2023, shortly after Tinubu assumed office. By December 31, 2025, the figure had climbed to N159.28 trillion. The increase reflected a combination of new borrowing, exchange-rate effects and the securitisation of certain legacy obligations, highlighting the difficult balance between the government’s need to finance expenditure and its efforts to restore fiscal sustainability. The debt trajectory remains one of the principal vulnerabilities confronting the economy, particularly as higher interest payments compete with spending on infrastructure, social services and development. The Bloomberg assessment also placed weight on external vulnerability, an area where Nigeria has faced considerable pressure in recent years because of foreign exchange shortages, weak reserves and disruptions in the country’s oil sector. The government’s decision to allow greater flexibility in the foreign exchange market was intended to reduce distortions and improve the supply of foreign currency, while efforts to raise oil production have sought to strengthen export earnings and government revenues. Nigeria remains heavily dependent on crude oil for foreign exchange earnings, despite efforts to expand non-oil exports and attract investment into manufacturing, agriculture, gas and other productive sectors. The country’s improved position consequently comes against a backdrop of an economy still undergoing significant structural adjustment. The electricity sector is another area in which the government has attempted to address longstanding distortions. Tariff reforms were introduced as part of efforts to move the industry towards greater cost recovery and reduce the financial burden on the government and the broader power market. Similarly, the removal of the petrol subsidy was designed to eliminate a major drain on public finances and redirect resources towards other areas of the economy. The immediate effect of the reforms, however, was a sharp increase in energy and transportation costs, contributing to the cost-of-living crisis that has remained a major concern for households and businesses. The Bloomberg ranking therefore provided a mixed picture of Nigeria’s economic transition: improvements in the indicators used to assess investment risk are occurring alongside significant pressures that could determine whether the gains are sustained. Nigeria’s climb to eighth also places renewed attention on the competitive position of Africa’s largest economies and the extent to which policy reforms are changing investors’ assessment of the continent.