Blaming Trump for your debt? What the Federal Reserve data really exposes

As we approach the midterm elections, many on the Left have accused President Donald Trump of policy decisions and actions that have negatively affected the U.S. economy and led to affordability issues for voters. But is this really the case?The relationship between debt and income is an indicator of economic health and affects affordability. The calculation of household debt service payments (the total required principal and interest payments made on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt) as a percentage of disposable personal income quantifies the effect of both debt and income on households.According to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, in the first quarter of 2021, the period in which Joe Biden ascended to the presidency, the HDPI stood at 9.05% and then rose precipitously during Biden’s term in the White House to 11.10% in the first quarter of 2025, which marked the end of Biden’s tenure in office and the period in which Trump was sworn in as president for the second time. The HDPI number so far during the second Trump presidency has remained relatively flat standing at 11.11% in the second quarter of 2026, the most recent number available covering the impact of any tariffs and early months of the U.S. conflict with Iran. The HDPI indicates most of the increase in the impact of debt relative to income felt currently by households is largely attributable to the policies and actions of Biden and not the strategies and measures of Trump. The more refined consumer debt service payments (the total scheduled payments covering both principal and interest on revolving debt such as credit cards and non-revolving consumer loans like auto and student loans, but excluding residential mortgages and home equity loans) as a percent of disposable personal income calculation is consistent with the HDPI results standing at 4.29% in the first quarter of 2021, then rising to 5.34% in the first quarter of 2025, before actually dropping slightly to 5.28% in the second quarter of 2026. Again, supporting the conclusion that any debt increase to consumers are attributable to Biden and not Trump.A look at the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index (which tracks the price changes for a market basket of goods and services) tells us more. In January 2021 the CPI was 1.4%, climbed to 9.1% in June 2022, before falling in January 2025 to 3%, then rising to 4.2% in May 2026, prior to moving downward to 3.4% in August 2026. During the Biden years from January 2021 to January 2025 the average yearly CPI was almost 5%. The rise in CPI under Trump from January 2025 to August 2026 is largely attributable to the CPI component category of energy (on an overall basis) coming in at 16.3% for the year ending August 2026 (with no element area outside of energy contributing more than 3.6%).The negative impact of energy on CPI is further supported by the significantly lower core consumer price index (which tracks the price changes for a market basket of goods and services, excluding food and energy) number of only 2.4% in August 2026. The spike in energy prices is a direct result of the anticipated short-term U.S. conflict with Iran (largely brought about by the past failures in policies and actions of the administrations of Barack Obama and Biden), with energy prices certain to drop with the cessation of hostilities. Clearly, with no month under Trump even close to the yearly average of nearly 5% under Biden, the only reasonable conclusion is that the price increases complained about are due to the residual effects of Biden’s policies and measures and are overwhelmingly attributable to Biden.Looking at the HDPI, CDPI, and CPI together is informative. Since the calculation of HDPI and CDPI are relatively consistent and flat since Trump took office, both debt and income are generally in lockstep. If the economy was negatively affecting affordability for individuals you would expect to see an increase in debt relative to income as was the case during Biden’s term in office. The predominantly energy-induced increase in CPI caused by the U.S. conflict with Iran is modest when viewed from a macro perspective and is probably having only a moderate effect on affordability.With the average weekly wage growth in the United States at 3.7% as of August 2026 outpacing inflation as measured by the CPI of 3.4% for August 2026, the diminished affordability argument becomes even harder to make.RISING INTEREST OUTPACES NATIONAL DEFENSE. IT’S EATING AMERICA ALIVEThe U.S. economy is in much better shape under Trump than the Left and their shills in the media would have you believe with their overblown claims as to decreased affordability. With major stock indices hitting multiple record-high levels, corporate earnings continuing strongly in an upwardly direction, increased corporate capital investment, enhanced direct investment by foreign corporations in the U.S., low unemployment, more people working in America than at any other time in its history, and a record-low poverty rate being just a few of the many positive economic achievements of the Trump administration, Republicans have plenty to tout.The Left’s negative reporting on the Trump economy is nothing more than political posturing to influence the midterm elections. Republicans must do a better job of messaging the success of the Trump economy to voters.Perry V. Kalajian is an attorney, consultant, analyst, and national media personality.