Bitcoin's 44% gain in third quarter teases full-blown crypto bull run

Your day-ahead look for Sept. 21, 2026(Dylan Leagh/Unsplash, modified by CoinDesk)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.As the end of the third quarter nears, bitcoin is standing tall some 44% higher, its best performance since the final three months of 2024.Gold is up 8.7% while the S&P 500 has added just 2%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's tech-heavy index, Nasdaq, has gained just 2%, according to data source TradingView.This marks a complete change from early this year when bitcoin was the underperformer and stocks, gripped by the AI fervour, were on a tear.The good news for BTC bulls doesn't end there. The cryptocurrency is also outperforming names like NVDA, one of the world's biggest companies, up 11%.And yet, bitcoin doesn't necessarily look expensive based purely on where it trades relative to its record price. Despite the solid rally, prices are still down 48% from the record price of $126,000 in October last year.Other tokens have also chalked up impressive gains. ETH, XRP, SOL, UNI and NEAR have registered gains between 40%-150%.The initial rise was mainly driven by oversold conditions that attracted bargain hunters and a short squeeze that pushed prices higher. But recently, a regulatory tailwind has kicked in.The rally, according to Tagus Capital, is "anchored by the U.S. SEC’s Sept. 17 decision to grant a temporary, five-year innovation exemption allowing qualifying venues to facilitate secondary trading of tokenized U.S. stocks using automated market makers and blockchain liquidity pools."The firm sees Ethereum benefiting disproportionately from this regulatory opening as it serves as the leading public blockchain for tokenized assets.Some analysts are now convinced a full-blown crypto market bull run has begun, but remain cautious."In our view, this is already a bull market, but that does not rule out sudden pullbacks, so it is worth exercising heightened caution until clearer signals of a transition to active growth emerge," Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email."The optimism surrounding altcoins is clearly boosting the bulls’ chances in BTC, but in this case, it is better not to get ahead of oneself by rushing to buy coins," he warned. Stay alert!Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."What’s trendingBitcoin’s price has cleared a key hurdle that has historically preceded major bull runs (CoinDesk): The final barrier standing between bitcoin and a potentially broader recovery has fallen. Bitcoin closed the week ended Sept. 20 above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, marking a potentially important confirmation that the bear market has ended.Stocks rise on AI optimism; lower oil helps bonds (Reuters): Global stocks rose on ​Monday, recovering some poise, as evidence of booming AI demand lifted tech shares and oil retreated on reports that more supply was leaving ‌ the Gulf than thought despite the conflict. The bond market rallied, with European debt leading gains.Treasury yields ease as global borrowing costs tumble (CNBC): Treasury yields were lower early Monday, tracking a global easing of government borrowing costs amid falling oil prices. The 10-year Treasury not stood at 4.967%, after hitting a 19-year high of 5.041% last week. The 2-year T-bond was at 4.729%, and the 30-year at 5.306%.Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle could be early winners of SEC's tokenized-stock push, analysts say (CoinDesk): The SEC’s tokenized-stock experiment may be narrow for now, but analysts are already pointing to Coinbase COIN$204.57·Market Closed, Robinhood HOOD$126.20·Market Closed and Circle CRCL$96.64·Market Closed as potential beneficiaries if more U.S. securities move onchain.Today’s signalBitcoin's price has topped the May high. (TradingView)The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format. Prices rallied to over $84,000, topping the May high resistance line and reaching the highest point since January. The move above the May high, if sustained, would confirm the breakout. With little recent trading activity between $84,000 and $97,000, the market faces limited overhead friction, setting up a potential straight shot toward six figures if momentum holds.12345678910