Big Oil earnings are set to surge. Why investors may want to be cautious

POWER POINTYou're going to see everything.That's not a reference to the reportedly amazing new documentary about disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes. It's about the next few days and next week: days that will be dominated by earnings, a massive conference, and more on Europe's energy woes.I'll hit more on energy earnings in The Actionable Insider below.Next week for me, it's multiple flights through multiple time zones. First up is one of the most important energy conferences in the world: ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi. It's a who's who of the energy world. I'll be speaking with some of the most influential energy executives in the world. You'll see some clips on CNBC about it and then I'll write about it here next week. I'll also be meeting privately with some of the biggest power players in energy and having great conversations with country and company leaders about oil, gas, commodities, Hormuz, and more - all ahead of what some fear may be another round of hits on Iran or Iranian energy infrastructure. It remains a tense time.That will be followed later in the week by a deeper dive into Europe's slow-rolling energy crisis. The Iran war and Hormuz risk have added another layer to an already risky situation, but let's be clear: it is not the reason why Europe is in an energy bind. Russia's horrible invasion and now four-year war on Ukraine added gasoline to a fire that began burning with bad policy decisions years ago. I have been covering the European energy story for five years - from the UK, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands - and next week I'll be in Italy highlighting where Europe is right now. Hint: it's not good. Natural gas storage levels are below their recent average, and prices are near record highs for imported LNG.Of course, there is a risk that travel plans change, much as they did a few weeks ago around a planned trip to Riyadh. That was scuttled after the Houthis launched cowardly and deadly attacks on civilian targets in Riyadh and other Saudi Arabian cities.Speaking of the Middle East, on my X account I posted a rather blurry picture sent by a friend of mine in Dubai a few days ago. On a morning swim, he spotted a U.S. Navy ship standing guard in the distance in the Arabian (Persian) Gulf. It's blurry because he had to zoom in from a distance, but regardless, I think it tells a thousand words. Oil is flowing through Hormuz in part because the great U.S. Navy is making sure ships get through. This ship and the brave men and women on it are part of that. But there's also the risk that the Iran war heats back up, with new U.S. assaults on Iranian targets. If that happens, oil is likely to pop. We live in a day-to-day, or even hour-by-hour, world.Keep calm, carry on… and keep a warship at the ready.BrianACTIONABLE INSIDERI'll just be blunt: these numbers are going to be big. Texas-sized big.The expected numbers for ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are above. All three are expected to more than double of EPS from last year. Then there are the refining-heavy companies. Those are a different thing altogether.Marathon Petroleum's earnings estimate is $25.37 a share. That's not a typo. Three months ago, EPS came in at $17.73, versus an estimate of "only" $14.27. And consider this: just one year ago, the Ohio-based company earned $4.51 per share. The jump in oil prices and - more importantly - the huge "crack spread" on refined products have sales expected to increase by $13 billion in just one year.For all four, guidance may be more important than the earnings themselves. What these companies say about the future and capital spending matters most. Any changes to spending plans will be closely watched by investors.These numbers are also likely to be closely watched by the political class. They are likely to use these big numbers to excoriate the industry as oil prices rise. An industry source tells me that the industry is "used to" the political attacks, but wishes there were more focus on the boom-or-bust nature of much of the industry, and that the money these firms earn now will help brace against the bad times and when - not if - oil drops again at some point in the future.Whatever your bent is on Big Oil, get the popcorn ready, because the next week will be big for all you energy investors - in many ways - and hopefully you'll see everything.For investors, caution is warranted on the energy space, says BTIG's chart analyst Jonathan Krinksy. On refiners specifically, he notes that the S&P Refining Index is up nearly 160% in 2026, its best year in at least three decades by far."At a minimum we should expect consolidation, but more likely some significant downside reversion," wrote Krinsky earlier this week. Krinsky doesn't like the look of the charts on Valero and Marathon Petroleum. On the latter, the analyst said the stock "hasn't quite broken its uptrend, but feels like it's coming."TAKE A LOOKThis week, we spoke with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright. He joined us from a nuclear power plant in rural Illinois. His office is offering billions of dollars in loan guarantees to help build out more nuclear power capacity in the U.S. We spoke with the secretary about that, as well as oil, Iran, Hormuz, and the importance of U.S. LNG in keeping Europe running right now.THE GRID