Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/27/26

2:00 Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. Let’s get to talking about baseball 2:00 Matt: You seemed a little grumpy in the trade value chat. How are you today 2:01 Ben Clemens: Oof, bad news for me, I thought I hid my grumpiness 2:01 Ben Clemens: nah it’s tiring 2:01 Ben Clemens: but I finished it You Aren't a FanGraphs Member It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! 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We didn't want to overdo it. 2:01 Ben Clemens: and we have a whole few days before the deadline so I am trying to recuperate as quickly as possible 2:01 Ben Clemens: I’m doing well. I basically tried my hardest to detox from baseball for the last two days, and now I’m back 2:01 manowargs: Katie Woo is saying that Alex Call might be available. How much would he be worth to one of the many teams lacking RHH OF? Mariners, Phillies, etc 2:02 Ben Clemens: I mean…. not that much is my guess 2:03 Ben Clemens: I just don’t think that right-handed 31-year-olds with below average batting lines are going to be in huge demand 2:03 Ben Clemens: it’s definitely true that teams need RHH OF’s 2:04 Ben Clemens: I’m just not convinced that Call is good enough to want to give up a bunch of prospect capital for 2:05 Ben Clemens: now if it’s like, cleaning the 40-man and whatnot, and they’re acquiring an up-and-down reliever? sure 2:06 Ben Clemens: but I dunno, for me, he’s just not moving the needle 2:06 scottbot: Obligatory ask for Ben’s take on Early / Mead: this Sox fan does not hate it which seems to point at fair for both sides but the surplus value calculations probably (wildly?) disagree? 2:06 Ben Clemens: yeah I mean, I think it’s probably a bad EV trade for the Sox in a vacuum but luckily we don’t play baseball in a vacuum 2:06 Ben Clemens: they spent all winter adding pitching and found out they had a little too much 2:07 Ben Clemens: and while sure, if they had a mujlligan, they probably would have diverted more resources to the infield, I appreciate them pivoting to do it, even if it’s at a small theoretical loss 2:07 BP: Has Arraez’s bounce back made you rethink the concept of too much contact that was being suggested? 2:08 Ben Clemens: not really. in fact, I kind of think the opposite? Arraez’s contact nubmers are his lowest since 2021 this year 2:08 Ben Clemens: highest swinging strike rate since that year, lowest contract rate, lowest zone contact rate, you get the idea 2:09 Ben Clemens: i don’t think he’s going to keep up his current form 2:09 Ben Clemens: but he’s hitting for more power this year than he ever has (still not a ton) 2:10 Ben Clemens: I have watched a lot of Arraez this year and I sometimes feel like he’s just deciding what he’s going to do on early pitches before they even get thrown, like auto takes at times 2:10 Ben Clemens: but I think it’s kinda working out! 2:10 Ben Clemens: basically I really do believe in, as Dan once called it, the contact death spiral 2:10 Ben Clemens: but Arraez is giving me hope that you can break out of it 2:10 Ben Clemens: his game looks very different this year than last year, and he ‘sacrificed contact’ but not really in that he makes so much that it doesn’t matter 2:10 scottbot: would a fully healthy Connelly Early have been an HM in the Trade Value series? Was Mead ever up for consideration? 2:11 Ben Clemens: so I think I probably didn’t explain this quite as much as I should have but he definitely could have 2:11 Ben Clemens: Mead definitely could have 2:11 Ben Clemens: and I was never close to putting either on the top 50 2:11 Ben Clemens: I don’t think that next year’s trade value list will have the same style of honorable mentions 2:12 Ben Clemens: because I truly do not enjoy answering questions that boil down to ‘well I think this guy is 116th-best, but you had a guy on your list who I think is like 140th-best, did you just forget about my guy?’ 2:12 Ben Clemens: for me the easy solution is to just not have HM’s 2:12 Ben Clemens: we’ll see whether that actually happens 2:12 Ben Clemens: but the point of them is to mention some good players. not to make people’s annoyance with their guy not being on there extend to 100 players instead of 50 2:12 Ben Clemens: so…. needs to be redone 2:13 JasonT: Not sure how plugged in you are to Ketel’s ongoing drama in AZ. I wonder if he has reached Manny in Boston (08) where it’s just time to move on. Do you think AZ could get a good, young starting pitcher for him? 2:13 Ben Clemens: i just saw that he unfollowed the team on instagram 2:13 Ben Clemens: always a classic 2:13 Ben Clemens: I dunno. his situation is tough and I won’t pretend that I have a great handle on the personalities in play and how that matters 2:13 Ben Clemens: glad I’m not a GM! 2:14 cosmichero: With Mead gone Brady House is getting his third chance, do you have much hope for things to be different this time? He should be an upgrade defensively if nothing else 2:14 Ben Clemens: I don’ thave a ton of hope, but I would definitely have done the same thing as the Nats, and I’d also give House another chance 2:14 Ben Clemens: you never know when your guy will turn into Jordan Walker 2:14 Ben Clemens: it’s vanishingly unlikely 2:15 Ben Clemens: but I feel like I was saying some similar things on Cardinals season preview shows this winter. Like, did I think Wwalker would pan out? No. But there’s plenty of uncertainty in how top prospects will develop and trying to capture that volatility in a positive way is a very good move imo 2:15 aglossman: I think you’re probably right to cut the HMs next year, but I also think it’s probably a fool’s errand to think that’ll cut out any of the stupid questions about guys not on the back end of the list lol 2:15 Ben Clemens: oh yeah, it won’t 2:15 Ben Clemens: the nature of lists is that you get those stupid questions 2:15 Ben Clemens: it’s a tradeoff for engagement, that’s fine 2:16 Ben Clemens: but the HM ones bother me more b/c like, it’s silly! 2:16 Ben Clemens: there are more HM’s than people on the list 2:16 Ben Clemens: it’s very clearly just me doing a cover my butt kind of thing 2:16 Ben Clemens: so then getting people who appear to be mad at me for it? what a waste 2:16 shandykoufax: I have been harboring the suspicion that the Mets 1H hole knocked them out of the playoff race, but that they were still a respectable team, and could at least play ~.500 for the second half. In reevaluating, they might actually just be bad. are they actually just bad? 2:16 Ben Clemens: haha it’s honestly hard to say 2:17 Ben Clemens: because they just got knocked into SUCH a hole that things started spiraling and whatnot 2:17 Ben Clemens: but yeah, they’ve continually underperformed my expectations 2:18 Ben Clemens: and I’m taking the under on the .532 ROS W% we’re projecting 2:18 hyphenkee: The giants have a run differential of -57 and a BaseRuns differential of +3. When the difference is that great, is it closer to supremely bad luck or something fundamentally wrong with the team? 2:18 Ben Clemens: probably closer to supremely bad luck 2:18 Ben Clemens: in that no one keeps gaps that large for that long 2:19 hyphenkee: Just thinking about Crochet from 17 to off list this year – What’s the largest fall from the trade value list ever? 2:19 Ben Clemens: Wander Franco, surely 2:20 Ben Clemens: sorry about that, a delivery just arrived and my dog made sure to make it eventful 2:21 aglossman: Also, it seems like Breslow is getting mocked for saying his priority is to make the team better, not win the trade. After he has been PILLORIED for months by certain fans and writers for seemingly prioritizing the opposite. 2:21 Ben Clemens: yeah, I’m with this. You can’t have it both ways 2:21 Ben Clemens: if the other trades were bad, this has to be good, and vice versa 2:21 Ben Clemens: but I just think it’s a reasonable pivot. like, perhaps an ‘overpay’ but I am more concerned with the team pointing its resources in the correct direction in general and this seems to do that 2:22 Schmegs: The Tigers had the big streak to make the playoffs in 2024, the another in the opposite direction last year. Those plus their mid-season swoon this year makes them feel to me like they are streaker than other teams. Could that be true or is that just because it’s been at noticeable times? 2:22 Ben Clemens: my guess? at noticeable times 2:22 Ben Clemens: largely because good luck coming up with a causal mechanism for this 2:22 ankoalec: Reports allegedly state that the Tigers are waiting to see how this week goes before deciding if they’re buying or selling at the deadline. Poor planning aside, what would you say Detroit’s record needs to be this week to retain Skubal/Torres/Mize ahead of Monday’s deadline assuming this reporting is true? Does anything aside from sweeping Baltimore keep them from selling? 2:22 Ben Clemens: on the same note, hmmmmm 2:25 Ben Clemens: if I were the Tigers I’d be pretty interested in trading Skubal, I hate to say. I would want to give it more thought if I were actually the Tigers, of course. But I like a lot of what they’re doing long-term and don’t think they are that likely to make the playoffs this year. I do agree with you that sweeping Baltimore would tilt things a lot more towards holding because Baltimore is one of the teams they’re behind 2:25 Ben Clemens: but for me, their current spot (four teams between them and the last wild card spot) is nto very tenable. I’d want two teams between me and WC3 at most 2:25 fincampbell05: Can you reassure us that Franklin Arias will not be traded for a lesser player with less control like Neto or Pena? 2:27 Ben Clemens: I mean, with 100% certainty? No. But I really don’t think he’s getting moved. It doesn’t fit with Breslow’s m.o. at all to me. The last time he traded a top prospect it was Teel in the Crochet deal. And generally speaking he seems to me like he’s drinking the prospect valuation kool-aid that the league has been having recently 2:27 Ben Clemens: as in, don’t give up your FV60+’s 2:27 Ben Clemens: and tehre’s not really an obvious player available at this deadline that would lead to an overreach 2:28 Ben Clemens: now, if Elly De La Cruz is unexpectedly available or sometihng? Let’s re-evaluate 2:28 Ben Clemens: but nothing about Breslow’s tenure makes me think he’ll sell Arias in a desperate attempt to compete this year. He lets the numbers guide him (in my opinion) too much at times, but the numbers say ‘keep Arias’ 2:28 Reds Enjoyer: My apologies if you mentioned this at some point during the trade value series but in your preparations/discussions while making the list did you get any sense of how much, if at all, teams value ABS ability for catchers? Specifically thinking about the market for Tyler Stephenson and his absolutely superb ABS skills… 2:29 Ben Clemens: it came up zero times 2:29 Ben Clemens: I’m not sure whether that’s because they don’t value it at all, because I didn’t mention it, because they don’t think it’s a real thing, because none of the catchers I had on there were great at the system…. 2:29 Ben Clemens: anyway, no, didn’t hear anything about it 2:29 rgberthelot: Do you think the Braves give Fuentes another chance in the rotation in 2027, or does the imminent free agency of Raisel Iglesias anchor him in the pen? 2:29 Ben Clemens: I think that he’s going to get a chance in the rotation 2:29 Ben Clemens: but I’m increasingly thinking he’ll end up as a high leverage reliever 2:30 Phillip Denny: Not for nothing, but reports are last deadline the Red Sox offered Tolle and Arias for Joe Ryan and the Twins said no….if you believe the reports. 2:31 Ben Clemens: boy, good thing they missed on that one! both of those guys have been arrow straight up since then 2:31 Ben Clemens: we had them both as 50 FV’s at our right around the deadline update last year 2:31 Ben Clemens: and since then they’ve gone nova 2:31 dadbauer: Do you think GMs are approaching the trade deadline based on their assumptions of what the next CBA will bring, or based on the current one and hoping for the best? 2:31 Ben Clemens: If there were a big-ticket star (Corey Seager is mayyyyybe someone in the right ballpark) moving, I think people would have to think long and hard about how to conceptualize his contract in next year’s CBA 2:32 Ben Clemens: like, I don’t think a cap is all that likely. But a cap-like substance seems more likely 2:32 Ben Clemens: and a change in the way that teams think about deals seems possible 2:32 Ben Clemens: if it’s like 1 year, 2 years? eh, no biggie. but longer deals would probably just have trouble getting moved at this deadline because it’s kind of a both-sides-worry situation 2:32 Ben Clemens: if you’re trading the guy with a big deal, what, you’re gonna take a discount because of some potential CBA changes you don’t even know anything about? 2:33 Ben Clemens: and likewise if you acquire that guy at full freight and then they change the rules to where his contract hurts you, that’s gonna feel awful 2:33 Ben Clemens: so I think the net effect is that teams will just be less interested in both directions in trading players on large contracts 2:33 Vee: Hi Ben, what’s for lunch? 2:35 Ben Clemens: leftovers of some nachos we made last night plus other various Mexican accoutrements 2:35 mlommler: Who *should* be most-motivated to trade for Skubal, if available? And is that team also the most likely to actually try hardest to do so? 2:35 Ben Clemens: surely the Dodgers 2:35 Ben Clemens: and I do think that they will try to do so 2:35 Ben Clemens: but I think this is a strike while the iron is hot situation 2:35 Ben Clemens: and I bet they’ll do it 2:35 bosoxforlife: To follow up on fincampbell05. I go into an uncontrollable nervous spasm every time I read about the Red Sox interest in a SS. The best chance to make a real impact, but it comes with some, maybe a lot, of risk is to promote Arias and Eyanson and let them play. Bold, absolutely, but these are the moves that could make the difference. 2:38 Ben Clemens: yeah, I am interested in seeing Arias get a shot in the majors, but I think the issue here is the proximity to the deadline. LIke if he’s not ready – and no matter how good you think he is, there’s a meaningful chance that he’s not ready – it’d be good to have a backup. if IKF is about ready to come back, I think I’d accept that 2:39 Ben Clemens: I would not feel the same way about Story. He’s been out for too long, and unless the news has changed recently, my read on it was that it’s just too uncertain that he’ll be healthy/effective 2:39 PC1970: Detroit is FINALLY starting to play the Friends theme sometimes when Hao Yu Lee hits..Now, they need a 10 second Joey Tribbiani “How you doing?” meme every time he does something good..which is become much more often. Getting something for Torres & letting Lee & Max Anderson finish out the year is one of those moves that could just work out. 2:39 Ben Clemens: um, that’s pretty great 2:40 Vee: The Dodgers could probably get Skubal without touching their top 8 prospects? 10? 2:40 Ben Clemens: I mean, if I’m the Tigers, I’m telling you to take a hike if you’re not involving any of your top ten prospects 2:40 Ben Clemens: even if it ends up not working out 2:40 Ben Clemens: you can’t trade Skubal for peanuts 2:40 Ben Clemens: it’s just not an acceptable outcome 2:41 cosmichero: if the nats trade cj abrams (for prospects) it will presumably be very bad for the clubhouse and general team vibes considering that he’s very good and one of the main leaders on the team. that would bum me out as a fan, but is it something the FO is/should seriously factor in? 2:41 Ben Clemens: I think it’s worth considering, but I think that the return changes things 2:41 Ben Clemens: like, if they’re moving him just to move him, that would not play well 2:41 Ben Clemens: if they get blown away by an offer and can make that clear to the team, I think that would not be the case 2:42 Ben Clemens: I’m pretty interested in seeing this trade market 2:42 cosmichero: What would constitute blown away? Is someone like Arias on the table? 2:43 Ben Clemens: I think that’s in the correct ballpark for blown away, basically. and also in the correct ballpark for ‘does this make rough sense’ 2:45 Ben Clemens: like, Abrams ended up on my trade value top 50, arias did not. But I defeinitely considered Arias for the list, and I had Abrams off at various points, and I have very little confidence in which direction I’d order thoes guys 2:45 Ben Clemens: but that’s like, here’s full value for your player with something that maybe fits your timeline better. whereas you could imagine trading Abrams for like, two FV45s and a reclamation project 2:45 Ben Clemens: and that feeling really bad, really deflating to the team 2:46 Ben Clemens: I dunno, I’m not certain I’m right by any means 2:46 Ben Clemens: but that’s how it feels to me 2:46 longsuffering: But why male models? 2:46 K’d Cavalli: not really a question, but I think people forget about the bidding wars that take place behind the scenes in trades. Trading for Skubal isn’t just trying to get equal value back, it’s offering a package that beats other teams’ offers too. Maybe the Sox think Early is worth more than Mead, but they needed to include him in order to beat another team’s reported package. Is that true am I misinformed Ben? 2:46 Ben Clemens: nah, that’s real. definitely matters how much you NEED to win the trade vs. how much you’d just like to make it 2:46 Ben Clemens: I think I’ve equated this to the Brewers’ offseason plans before. Seomtimes they just look for a free agent bargain 2:47 Ben Clemens: and it seems like while they have their types, they’re really just looking to pay 80 cents on the dollar 2:47 Ben Clemens: so I think if you’re looking for, say, ‘a reliever’, it’s probably right to think about balancing the value, trying to make a deal that gives you the most bang for your buck, etc 2:47 Ben Clemens: if you need Mason Miller and you’ll be super sad if you don’t get him? Figure out a package that you think will iwn 2:48 Broken Bat: You have to take one, goal is wild card. You are 1.5 games behind 2 other teams.. Peralta or Valdez? 2:48 Ben Clemens: that’s a tough one 2:48 Ben Clemens: I think I’d take Peralta 2:49 Ben Clemens: I dunno, the version of Valdez that isn’t a great groundball pitcher is just not doing it for me 2:50 Ben Clemens: Like they’ve both been really disappointing this year. BUt I can talk myself into Peralta just catching a string of bad luck, and I don’t quite feel the same about Valdez 2:50 BuccoFan: Pirates desperately need relief help. With the caveat that he won’t fix all their problems, how aggressive do you think the Bucs should be in pursuing Mason Miller? His contract aligns well with their Skenes window and we’ve seen you can flip Miller again to restock some of the prospect haul given up to acquire him. 2:52 Ben Clemens: oh…. I don’t think I like this at all, tbh. I think that they are a team with enough holes at everyday positions that trading a bunch of prospect capital for a reliever is going to leave them wishing htey could fill holes elsewhere with those prospects 2:53 Ben Clemens: they are underperforming their pythag, and they really do need a better bullpen 2:53 Ben Clemens: but I feel like I’d be more intersted in trading for many okay relievers 2:53 Phil: If Breslow trades Arias for Abrams I will personally feed his entrails to the closest Cyclops. But I get your point. 2:53 Ben Clemens: haha, harsh! but fair, it’s fun to dream on your own prospects and I really don’t think htat Abrams should go somewhere where he has to play shortstop 2:53 Phillip Denny: I think the Mean return is an early indication that RH bats will be coveted this deadline. Which imo is a realistic response to the proliferation and effectiveness of LHP across the league. 2:54 Ben Clemens: yeah, I concur with this 2:54 Phil: Is it reasonable to see the Early trade as an indication of faith in Bennett? He has looked excellent lately. 2:54 Ben Clemens: if it is, I think that that misunderstands how pitching variance works 2:54 Ben Clemens: to me it’s just an indication that the Sox have a lot of pitchers and that enough fo them are likely to pan out that the overall package is good enough even without Early 2:55 Ben Clemens: I like Bennett alright but I’m not a big fan of making trades due to ‘faith’ 2:55 springer: Would you be nervous about acquiring Abrams at the deadline with the plan of immediately moving him to a new position? 2:55 Ben Clemens: 100%. and I don’t think he’s moving this deadline 2:55 Ben Clemens: but if he did, I think it’d be to a team that looks at him and goes ‘eh he can play second’ or something 2:56 Ben Clemens: I guess we’ll see. The Nats are just good enough that I really think the most likely outcome is him staying 2:56 hyphenkee: In a given season (so not projecting forward), would you rather have 20 offensive WAR and 20 defensive WAR, 10 and 30, or vice versa? Or is it irrelevant? Does a certain balance portend more postseason success? 2:56 Ben Clemens: I’ve never found any signs that a certain balance is ‘right’ for the playoffs or anything 2:57 Ben Clemens: I think I’d probably prefer the offense, but I don’t really have a strong take on why or by how much 2:57 Ben Clemens: I think it’s basically the same, in other words 2:57 Mr. Redlegs: Now that Steer is hurt, the Reds don’t really have too much to offer. Should they just ride it out? Maybe they get hot and it gets weird 2:57 Ben Clemens: yeah probably. unless they are sneakily soliciting bids for Elly and think they have a good reason to move him 2:57 Ben Clemens: I don’t htink that’s the base case at all though 2:58 Ben Clemens: Like you said, they don’t have much to offer that they’d want to trade. Stephenson? 2:59 Ben Clemens: I think that means stay the course and see what’s going on next year, with tiny equity to spike a playoff spot this year 2:59 YeonWoo Oh: Could Fangraphs also display the EV90 on the Statscast dashboard in the player page? I can see it on the Statscast dashboard in the leaderboard, but it’s not there on the Statscast dashboard in the player page. I can’t set it up in the custom report either. 3:00 Ben Clemens: yeah it needs some rejiggering somewhere in teh back end 3:00 Ben Clemens: to make it work easily 3:00 Ben Clemens: but it’s on our list 3:00 Baseball Learner: The Orioles should sell right? Rentals only or should they be looking at unloading Adley? 3:00 Ben Clemens: the Orioles should probably sell, but if they do, like, what’s going on here int he bigger sense? 3:01 Ben Clemens: things have really not panned out the way we all expected for the O’s 3:01 Ben Clemens: I guess selling their rentals and then trying to reset next year makes most sense to me. but that’s kind of a bummer 3:02 Ben Clemens: also Adley htiting the IL at the same time as Basallo is super annoying 3:02 Ben Clemens: they are having pretty bad luck this year, in addition to what I’d consider some bad strategic decisions in the past, and it’s really just a bummer 3:03 Ben Clemens: if I’m them, I’m desperately trying to figure out how to extend the window being open, because I kind of can’t believe that they hvaen’t won a playoff game with this core 3:03 Ben Clemens: and if they don’t, well, it’s probably time to just completely strip things down to the bones and restart, which is miserable given that they just did that 3:03 cosmichero: Not to get super existential but the O’s to me are a classic example of how the payroll disparity causes competitive balance issues even for well-run teams. If they’re totally reliant on a perfectly timed window and aren’t gonna spend heavily even during that window, you don’t really have many mechanisms to take the step from good to great beyond just pray that even more prospects hit 3:04 Ben Clemens: so, I think I wrote about this a few years ago, and then later swore off writing the same article, but I guess we’ll have to talk about it here anyway 3:04 Ben Clemens: I think that if you look at teams who have followed the O’s style pathway in the past, they’ve spent more hwne they’re competing 3:05 Ben Clemens: and the O’s are basically doing that too. THey have a 165mm-ish payroll this year, middle of the table 3:05 Ben Clemens: and their CBT payroll is even higher 3:05 Ben Clemens: b/c of the shape of the deals 3:05 Ben Clemens: I think that their issues are around not striking when the iron was hot earlier in the window. and then like, man, things have broken poorly for them of late 3:07 Ben Clemens: huh I’ll be right back, somehow Tyler O’Neill isn’t showing up on the O’s payroll page and I’m trying to figure out why 3:07 Ben Clemens: but basically, they spent 3:08 Ben Clemens: but kinda strangely? 3:08 Ben Clemens: and it didn’t really pan out the wya they wanted 3:08 Ben Clemens: and at the same time, the prospects didn’t hit like they hoped 3:08 HappyFunBall: Tyler O’Neil isn’t really showing up for the O’s, generally. So that tracks 3:09 Ben Clemens: very well done 3:09 Ben Clemens: I luaghed for a while 3:09 Ben Clemens: okay that was a wonderful break, and I appreciate all the kind words from everyone today. You guys are great, a breath of fresh air 3:09 Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go eat lunch and finish up an article on the crowdsourced trade value rankings 3:09 Ben Clemens: have a wonderful week, everyone Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.