BARMM election faces low-turnout risk amid violence, voter uncertainty

The upcoming parliamentary election in the BARMM faces challenges due to fears of violence and distrust in the electoral process, potentially leading to low voter turnout. Despite a gun ban and military presence, violence has persisted in the region, with an increase in gun-related incidents and deaths, highlighting ongoing clan rivalries and political polarization. Voter uncertainty about the new parliamentary system and lack of proper voter education may further hinder participation, reflecting deeper issues of skepticism toward the BARMM government and its political entities. This is AI-generated. Read the article for full context. Report any errors. CAGAYAN DE ORO, Philippines – The first parliamentary election in the seven-year-old Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) is approaching with this possibility: Voters may be too frightened, distrustful, or uncertain about the new political system to turn out in the numbers election officials are counting on. Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA), a group that monitors conflict in the predominantly Muslim region, warned that violence and low public confidence in the electoral process could depress turnout and undermine the credibility of the September 14 election. The warning carries particular weight because the Commission on Elections (Comelec) is targeting a turnout of at least 70% to 75% among the BARMM’s 2.39 million voters. Next week’s parliamentary election is meant as a start of a new chapter for the region that emerged from decades of armed conflict through a 2014 peace agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which resulted in BARMM’s creation in 2019. But CCAA’s monitoring in the weeks before the vote suggests that some of the forces the peace process was meant to overcome — guns, clan rivalries, political polarization, extremist violence and distrust of government — remain powerful enough to influence whether people go to the polls. Is the gun ban working? The numbers offer one of the clearest warnings. CCAA’s Critical Events Monitoring System recorded 58 gun-related incidents from July 16 to August 31, after the election gun ban in the region took effect. That compared with 44 incidents from June 1 to July 15, before the ban. Deaths from gun-related violence also increased, from 34 before the ban to 39 afterward. CCAA recorded 14 more gun-related incidents, an increase of about 32%, and five more deaths, or about 15%, after the ban took effect. The figures do not mean that the gun ban factored in any way to the increase. But they show that, during the period monitored by CCAA, restrictions on firearms had not produced the reduction in violence voters might expect from an election security measure. Instead, violence continued in communities where politics, clan loyalties and access to firearms overlap. CCAA is not the first to point out that the persistence of violence shows a problem that goes beyond election security. An earlier assessment by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group found that more than a decade after the peace agreement, clan feuds, political rivalries and criminal networks continued to thrive where state institutions remained weak. ‘Peace is our shared responsibility’ On Tuesday, September 8, the Lanao del Sur-based Moro Consensus Group (MCG) called on candidates, security forces, and voters in the region to help ensure a peaceful and credible first parliamentary election in the BARMM. In a statement, MCG chairman Drieza Lininding called on the region’s political parties and candidates to avoid violence, vote-buying, harassment and intimidation, and to respect voters’ right to make their choices freely. The civil society group also called on the military, police and other security agencies to remain neutral, protect polling centers and election workers, and enforce election laws without political bias. MCG said Bangsamoro voters, including Muslim Filipinos, indigenous peoples, Christians, women, and young people, should be able to take part in the election without fear or coercion. It urged BARMM leaders and politicians to respect the outcome and accept the choice of voters. “Peace is our shared responsibility,” the group said, urging Bangsamoro voters to take part in the election “with courage, discernment, and peace.” Tensions high CCAA said tensions worsened after Bangsamoro interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua was ambushed on August 15, an attack it said deepened divisions within the MILF and intensified political polarization. In Shariff Saydona Mustapha in Maguindanao del Sur, a recurring rido (clan feud) displaced about 30 families in late August. In Basilan, arrest warrants were issued against the mayor and seven others over an ambush involving supporters of a former mayor during the 2025 midterm elections. The warrants were issued about a month before the parliamentary election, CCAA said, after the incumbent mayor aligned herself with a political camp opposed to the governor. The government has imposed a gun ban and deployed large numbers of military personnel to secure the election. But CCAA said armed groups, political parties and local power structures remained closely linked in parts of the region. It also raised questions about the weapons and armed capability of the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), the MILF’s political party. CCAA said there had been no concrete steps toward decommissioning the weapons and armed forces linked to the MILF. The government and the MILF signed guidelines on August 31 governing ceasefire-related functions during the election. Two days later, the military stopped an MILF convoy in Kolambugan, Lanao del Norte, because most of its members were armed. Lanao del Norte, a province led by the Dimaporos – a Muslim Filipino family – did not join BARMM and is part of the predominantly Catholic region of Northern Mindanao. As a result, the military called on the MILF to coordinate movements through mechanisms established under the Bangsamoro peace process. Voter concerns Security is only part of the problem. CCAA’s monitoring also found uncertainty among voters about how to participate in the new parliamentary system. In interviews with residents, CCAA said it found people who were still unsure how to vote and others who said they had received little voter education. Some said political parties had turned voter education into another form of campaigning, telling people whom to support rather than explaining how the new parliamentary system was supposed to work. For generations, elections in Muslim-majority areas of Mindanao had been more personal and familiar. Voters knew local candidates, their families and often the clans and political alliances behind them. Now, they are being asked to choose representatives to a regional legislature through regional political parties and parliamentary districts – a system that remains unfamiliar to many. That lack of understanding carries another risk. CCAA said local electoral boards had come under pressure in previous elections from political groups seeking to influence or intimidate voters. A voter unfamiliar with the system and looking to an electoral official for guidance could therefore be especially vulnerable. The question is what that uncertainty will mean on election day. CCAA said weak participation could signal more than confusion over a new ballot, and it could show a deeper lack of faith in the BARMM government and the political groups competing to control it. That skepticism has a tangible backdrop of poor health and education services and corruption allegations involving the BARMM education ministry. Poverty has declined but economic hardship remains widespread, CCAA said. – Rappler.com