Bank of England opens door to second rate hike before Christmas as inflation threatens to top 6 per cent

The Bank of England has hiked interest rates and left the door open to a second increase before Christmas as it warned inflation could soar past 6 per cent.In a blow to millions of borrowers, the Bank put up rates for the first time in three years, from 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent.And governor Andrew Bailey warned that without any sign of an end to Donald Trump's Iran war, more hikes will be on the way.That will come as a bitter blow to already-squeezed households and came as the Bank sharply downgraded its outlook for UK living standards.Hopes that Mr Trump's humiliating defeat in this week's US mid-term elections could spell an end to the Middle East conflict were not enough to change the grim outlook.Those hopes have sent oil prices plunging below $100 a barrel. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey warned there could be more rate hikes to comeBut Mr Bailey said: 'The whole situation is so volatile that you really don't want to put much weight on two days which haven't yet been backed by any firm evidence that there is a peace process which is going to lead to something concrete.'He said the Bank would have 'more information' in coming weeks but that 'where that leads to – that's for the meeting in December'.The comments suggest that without any real progress in ending the war, rates could be hiked again, to 4.25 per cent, when the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) next convenes eight days before Christmas.Thursday's rate hike, the first since August 2023, was a direct blow to around a million borrowers on variable mortgages, adding an average £30.72 to the monthly cost of a tracker and £14.28 to a standard variable rate deal.That will wipe out the £100 energy bill help for some families announced in the Budget.More than seven million who are on fixed rate mortgages will not immediately be affected but 2.3 million of those are on deals due to expire by the end of 2027, leaving them facing higher payments.A further hike in December would deepen the misery for households and the wider economy at a time when consumers might normally be expected to splash out on presents and partying.The Bank has been forced to act because Mr Trump's war has choked off energy supplies from the Middle East, pushing oil and gas prices higher.That has caused petrol and diesel costs to surge while annual energy bills are on course to climb above £2,000 from January.As a result, inflation has climbed to 3.5 per cent, an 11-month high, and well above the Bank's 2 per cent target.And the Bank sees it hitting 4.9 per cent by next spring. In an 'adverse' scenario in which the Iran war continues to escalate, pushing oil prices to $130 a barrel, it could hit 6.2 per cent by the summer.Until now, the Bank has resisted putting up rates in response to the conflict as it waits to see whether the energy spike causes 'second round' effects as other indirectly-affected prices also rise and workers demand higher wages.But it warned has that higher oil and gas prices since the summer meant inflationary pressures 'will be stronger and more persistent than previously expected' and was enough to warrant a hike.Mr Bailey said: 'Today's increase shouldn't be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes. But, unless the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, neither does it seem likely to be the last increase.'Members of the Bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by an 8-1 majority to hike rates by a quarter of a percentage point with one member, Catherine Mann, arguing for a half percentage point rise.And in its latest forecasts it said the outlook for living standards looks increasingly dismal as higher inflation eats into earnings.That will mean a 0.1 per cent real terms fall in post-tax labour income – a measure of living standards – this year. The slump is expected to deepen next year with a fall of 0.6 per cent.Another rate hike within weeks could add further pain.Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, said: 'December's meeting now looks like a coin flip, with the path of oil and natural gas prices set to be the decisive factor.'Chancellor John Healey said: 'The Iran conflict is reaching deep into the pockets of families and businesses here at home.'