Bab al-Mandeb: US war on Iran gives Houthis new leverage over Saudi Arabia

When Yemen’s Houthis threatened a “maritime embargo” on Saudi ports last week, the risk of war returning to the Arabian Peninsula - and of Bab al-Mandeb becoming the second major oil chokepoint under threat - suddenly became real. The escalation began after Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen’s Sanaa International Airport more than two weeks ago, potentially pulling the country deeper into the expanding US-Israeli war on Iran. The attack followed the Houthis’ decision to reopen Sanaa airport to direct flights from Iran. These would have been the first such flights since 2015. Riyadh would have viewed them as a major red line and a sign of growing Iranian influence, potentially including the direct transfer of weapons. “But just as direct Sanaa-Iran flights were a red line for the Saudis and its allied Yemeni government, the attack on Sanaa international airport was a red line for the Houthis,” Hamish Kinnear, principal analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at global risk analyst Maplecroft, told Middle East Eye. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have since said they launched missiles at the Saudi cities of Jazan and Yanbu. They also reported targeting two Saudi oil ships last week, with Riyadh confirming one attack in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has diverted more than 70 percent of its crude exports from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea port of Yanbu following the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the latter's blockade of Hormuz. “We will not hesitate to expand our movements and escalate our steps based on the developments of the situation in the coming hours and days,” Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said. 'To be quiet might be misconstrued as a sign of weakness, which the Saudis are not - they have the firepower and the will to use it' - Khaled Almaeena, Saudi political analyst The renewed fighting threatens the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Before shipping companies began diverting vessels around the Red Sea, it carried about 12 percent of global seaborne oil trade and 8 percent of global liquefied natural gas trade. Shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb has not come to a complete halt, however, with some tankers carrying crude to Asia still passing through the waterway. “This indicates that the Houthis are open to negotiations with the Saudis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, which has also suggested that it does not want to expand the confrontation,” noted Kinnear. Any sustained disruption would place a second major oil chokepoint under pressure after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s narrowing options Khaled Almaeena, a Saudi political and media analyst and former editor-in-chief of Arab News, told Middle East Eye that “the escalation was totally unexpected”. “That front [with Yemen] was quiet. Saudi Arabia had exercised great restraint in the adjoining region and the unnecessary Iranian provocations,” said Almaeena. 'If the Houthis would like to negotiate peace its up to them because the kingdom would like to avoid unnecessary bloodshed' - Khaled Almaeena, Saudi political analyst Houthi threats against Saudi ports on the Red Sea coast and shipping now place that alternative route in danger. Asian refiners could face a costly diversion, moving oil from Yanbu through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean before sending it around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope and back towards Asia. “[Riyadh] does not want conflagration, however, there is a seriousness to the situation now,” noted Almaeena. The 60-day ceasefire established under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June remained fragile from the outset. It finally collapsed after Washington breached Article 5 of the memorandum, which states that “Iran will make arrangements” to restore traffic through the straits during the ceasefire while negotiating the route’s future with Oman. The United States sought to circumvent that provision by creating its own route through Omani territorial waters without consulting Iran, as required under the agreement. Washington’s breach and subsequent resumption of the war transformed the Houthis’ position: with the Strait of Hormuz already contested, pressure on Bab al-Mandeb gave the group greater leverage over both the US and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has so far avoided joining the war on Iran directly, but continued Houthi attacks could make that restraint harder to sustain. Conflict in Yemen transforms the lives of long-marginalised Muhamasheen minority Read More » “To be quiet might be misconstrued as a sign of weakness which the Saudis are not,” said Almaeena, adding that “they have the firepower and the will to use it”. The Houthis have proved in recent years that they are difficult opponents to break. US President Donald Trump intensified attacks on the Houthis in March 2025 before withdrawing from the campaign by May and saying the group had completely “capitulated”. It had not. Trump discovered, as Saudi Arabia had before him, that bombing was unlikely to force the Houthis into submission or isolate them. “The new Houthi threat to Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb is clearly aligned with the wider Iranian goal of disrupting shipping and global energy markets to maintain pressure on the US - even if it isn’t a case of the Houthis simply taking orders from Tehran,” said Kinnear. The threat therefore appears designed less to close Bab al-Mandeb completely than to demonstrate that the Houthis can raise the economic cost for Riyadh whenever they choose. The Houthis have much to gain from a limited and controlled escalation with Saudi Arabia. Iran has shown that it can use the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions that could help fund its postwar reconstruction. The Houthis now hold something potentially just as valuable: the ability to threaten Saudi Arabia’s remaining route to global oil markets. “If the Houthis would like to negotiate peace its up to them because the kingdom would like to avoid unnecessary bloodshed,” said Almaeena.