Australia’s population hits 27.9 million as newborn numbers dip

September 17, 2026 — 4:24pmAustralia’s population growth has slowed to its lowest non-pandemic rate in 15 years with net overseas migration dropping below 300,000 for the first time since the Albanese government came to power.But the new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the government still faces a battle to reach its own budget forecasts amid accusations from the Coalition that the country is on an immigration “highway to hell”.The bureau reported that through the March quarter of this year, the population grew by 130,887. It took the total population of Australia to 27.9 million.March is traditionally the biggest quarter for population growth as migrants and students move into the country. Net overseas migration for the quarter was 101,005, a 6 per cent fall on the same period in 2025 and the smallest March result since the depths of Covid.Through the year, net overseas migration eased to 292,100, the smallest number since mid-2022. The intake through 2025 was also revised down by the bureau to 299,000.Overall population growth eased to 1.4 per cent or 392,100 over the past year. Excluding the pandemic, when the international border was shut, it is the lowest growth rate since 2011. It most recently peaked at 2.5 per cent in September 2023 when the population swelled by 662,000.The May budget forecast net overseas migration to be at 294,000 to March. It suggests that, without a jump in arrivals through the June quarter, the government will hit its full financial year forecast of 295,000.Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government was ahead of schedule on its budget forecasts to reduce net overseas migration.“When we came to office NOM [net overseas migration] was surging and a lot of the key indicators in the housing sector were falling. We are turning that around, and the net overseas migration numbers show that that is the case,” he said.The natural increase in Australia’s population - births minus deaths - continues to fall.Family VeldmanBut Liberal housing spokesman Andrew Bragg said the government was in denial about the pressures of migration on the nation’s property sector.“So they are still on the highway to hell here in terms of their migration numbers being way too high and totally misaligned with housing supply,” he told News24.“So they have cooked up a terrible storm, which has made housing harder, and frankly, everything harder in Australia.”Australia’s natural population increase – births minus deaths – continues to ease. Over the past 12 months, there were 100,600 more births than deaths, a 4.6 per cent or almost 5000 drop on the previous year.The population figures confirm the slowdown in net overseas migration is being driven by the states that traditionally absorb the largest number of new Australian residents.In NSW, net overseas migration dropped 6 per cent year-on-year to 28,865, while in Victoria it eased by almost 9 per cent.Net overseas migration also dropped in Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory.But it lifted marginally in Western Australia, while it jumped by 22 per cent in Tasmania, which recorded 1086 net migrants in the March quarter this year compared to 888 in 2025.The figures also show that interstate movements are changing.Victoria recorded a net inflow of 505 people from other parts of the federation in the quarter. It was the largest quarterly inflow since before the pandemic during which there was a large outflow of Victorians to the rest of the country.NSW had a net loss of 4970 people to other parts of Australia, the lowest March quarter result since 2017.Net interstate migration eased in every other state bar Tasmania.Overall, NSW’s population now stands at 8.7 million, followed by Victoria (almost 7.2 million), Queensland (5.7 million), WA (3.1 million), South Australia (1.9 million), Tasmania (580,700), the ACT (489,700) and the Northern Territory (268,900).Oliver Hume chief economist Matt Bell said it appeared changes in the Victorian and Queensland property markets had made the southern state more attractive to people moving around the country.He said the lift in people shifting to Victoria had occurred at the same time as the number of people moving to Queensland had fallen to its lowest level in a decade.“The vacant land price for south-east Queensland has now been above that of Greater Melbourne for nearly 18 months, and now sits more than $100,000 higher,” he said.“Queenslanders may not be actively moving to Victoria, but it does seem likely that more Victorians are staying put due to Queensland no longer providing the affordable housing solutions it historically has.”Get across all our coverageBurke’s warning: Is Australia becoming a guest worker economy?As it happened: Labor unveils immigration overhaulWhat Australians really think: The migration pathways voters want slashedListen: Samantha Selinger-Morris and Brittany Busch discuss One Nation’s immigration planCut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.Shane Wright is a senior economics correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X or email.From our partners