As GOP braces for a blue wave, New England might provide some pops of red

Salem, N.H.; and Caribou, Maine | Oct. 28, 2026, 5:00 a.m. ET | 7 min read As the scion of a Republican dynasty and a former U.S. House and Senate member, John E. Sununu doesn’t need much introduction in New Hampshire. Most voters already know him and his family, with their long line of federal lawmakers, governors, and White House officials.Mr. Sununu, who lost his Senate seat in the 2008 Obama wave, knows what it’s like to face an unfavorable political environment. But the headwinds he’s facing in this election may be even worse. So in his run for his old seat, he’s trying to convince voters that he’s a different kind of Republican. Not that kind of Republican. Not a MAGA Republican.Donald Trump? “I’ve never even met the man,” he says in a TV ad, pushing back against efforts by Rep. Chris Pappas, his Democratic opponent, to tie him to the unpopular president. It’s an example of the hoops that many GOP midterm candidates are jumping through to overcome widespread Trump fatigue. But it’s also very much on brand for a politician who is a throwback to the decorous, buttoned-down type of Republican – fiscally conservative, temperamentally moderate, civic-minded – that once could be found across New England, but has become a vanishing breed in the Trump era.“Nobody is going to mistake John Sununu for a Trump clone,” says Jim Merrill, a veteran GOP campaign strategist.Even as Democrats are eyeing possible upset wins in red states like Kansas and Texas, there are a handful of high-profile Senate and gubernatorial races where Republicans are holding their own on Democratic-leaning turf. In a few cases, the GOP even has a small shot at a pickup. All feature different individual dynamics, but one common thread is that these Republican candidates, many of whom are running in New England, are focusing intensely on local issues, while signaling their independence from both Mr. Trump and the MAGA brand. In New Hampshire’s open Senate race, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring after three terms, Mr. Sununu is running “the classic New Hampshire path,” says Mike Biundo, a GOP consultant who was a senior adviser to Mr. Trump in 2016. That means focusing on state kitchen-table issues and sidestepping national politics. (Mr. Sununu has done almost no national media interviews and declined to talk to the Monitor.) Amanda Sabga/ReutersRepublican Sen. Susan Collins speaks during the opening of a new wastewater treatment facility in Windham, Maine, Oct. 8, 2026. It’s “the same approach Susan Collins has used for years in Maine” to win independent voters, Mr. Biundo says via text. “Local and detached isn’t a strategy. It’s the only way.”Senator Collins, another moderate Republican who is seeking her sixth term, is locked in perhaps the tightest race of her career against Democrat Troy Jackson. Other Northeast Republicans who could win next week include Vermont’s Phil Scott, who’s seeking a record sixth term as governor, though he is facing a stronger-than-expected challenge from Democrat Amanda Janoo, and New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who appears on track to win reelection.Outside of New England, revelations of extensive fraud in Minnesota’s medical reimbursements have shaken up that state’s open Senate race between Democratic Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan and Republican former sportscaster Michele Tafoya. What was originally seen as a safe Democratic seat – Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the Senate in 25 years – has become a competitive contest in recent weeks. Ms. Tafoya was endorsed earlier this month by President Trump, but while her website lists endorsements ranging from the Minneapolis police union to the state Farm Bureau, it makes no mention of the president’s nod.Likewise, in Michigan’s open Senate race, former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers is running just slightly behind Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Mr. Rogers has been endorsed by President Trump, but in a recent television interview, he declined to say whether he considered himself a “MAGA Republican.” Michigan last elected a Republican to the Senate in 1994.On the road with Joe ManchinNeither Ms. Collins nor Mr. Sununu, both of whom have been endorsed by the president, has invited Mr. Trump or his surrogates to campaign in their state. Instead, Ms. Collins toured a New Balance factory in Norway, Maine, last week with Joe Manchin, a former Democratic senator from West Virginia who became an independent. He praised her as a bipartisan ally in the Senate who “put the country before party ... [and] Maine before anything else, because that’s who she worked for.” Patrick Whittle/APSen. Susan Collins and former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin tour a New Balance shoe factory in Norway, Maine, Oct. 21, 2026. Around a third of voters in Maine are registered as unaffiliated. These are the voters who handed Ms. Collins a fifth term in 2020 even as Mr. Trump lost the state by 9 percentage points. Supporters say her bridge-building in Washington and the federal dollars she funnels to Maine in her role as chair of the Appropriations Committee are reason enough for Mainers to reelect her, despite their complaints about the Trump administration and the cost of heating oil and other essentials.In downtown Caribou (population: 7,300), where Ms. Collins grew up, yard signs call her “The County’s own.” The town, hemmed in by potato farms and woodland, is a short hop from the Canadian border and several hours from Portland, the state’s largest city. Mr. Jackson, the Democrat in the race, is also from “The County,” as Mainers call it, though his roots in a logging community are more working class. Most polls show Mr. Jackson with a slender lead, though within the margin of error.On the trail, Ms. Collins shows up at small-town parades and makes sure voters know that federal dollars she secured are why they have a new firehouse or fitness center.“She’s helped veterans ... not just here in Maine, but everywhere,” says Mary Rogers, a widow in Caribou whose husband served in the military. Ms. Rogers leans Republican but didn’t vote for Mr. Trump. “She tries to stand up to him. But it’s sort of hard to stand up to him,” she admits. Simon Montlake/The Christian Science MonitorA sign for Sen. Susan Collins is seen at an intersection in Caribou, Maine, Oct. 19, 2026. Ms. Collins, a Republican, was born and raised in Caribou and her family operates a hardware store there. Others have lost patience with what they call the GOP senator’s failure to provide a check on the administration. “People have given her the benefit of the doubt before,” says Cathy Catranis, an office manager on a potato farm outside Caribou. “Now, I don’t think so.”Ms. Catranis is especially unhappy about President Trump’s tariffs, which have depressed cross-border trade and visits by Canadians. (Ms. Collins took credit after the U.S. announced last week it would lower tariffs on some agricultural goods from Canada.)Many here are also still upset about Ms. Collins’ vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who joined the conservative majority in 2022 in overturning the nationwide right to an abortion. Supporters point out that abortion remains legal in Maine and that Ms. Collins also voted to confirm Barack Obama’s and Joe Biden’s nominees to the high court. Harold “Trey” Stewart, a Republican lawmaker from Aroostook who is the state Senate minority leader, praises Ms. Collins as a pragmatist who has a “lighter touch with her conservative principles.” He says if Maine voters oust her in favor of a Democrat with no seniority, they will be “cut[ting] off their nose to spite their face.”“This is the first time in over a hundred years that we’ve had somebody” chair the Appropriations Committee, he says. “If you think it’s bad in Maine right now, holy smokes, strap in folks, because it’s gonna get a heck of a lot worse if we lose Susan Collins.”“The right tone and temperament”In New Hampshire, Mr. Sununu talks about putting voters first and bringing fiscal discipline back to Washington. At a TV debate in Salem, held in the public high school he attended, he pointed out that the next senator’s term will outlast the Trump era by four years. Robert F. Bukaty/APRep. Chris Pappas, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, listens to residents' concerns at a housing park, Sept. 29, 2026, in Salem, New Hampshire. “My question is, ‘Where do we go next?’ I want to make sure America goes in a direction that’s right for New Hampshire. The right leaders, the right priorities, the right tone and temperament,” he said.He agreed with Mr. Pappas that Congress needs to exert more authority over spending, tariffs, and war. When Mr. Pappas expressed support for impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Mr. Sununu didn’t rule it out.Connie Burns, a retired teacher, watched part of the debate in Salem and left unsure about her choices. She’s already planning to vote for Republican Governor Ayotte, but the Senate race is another matter. “I want to get rid of Trump,” she says, adding that she voted for him in 2016 but not since then. “But do we have to vote Democratic?” Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. On the campaign trail, Mr. Pappas, a four-term U.S. House member, has shared the stage with Democratic heavyweights such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Mr. Sununu has largely gone it alone, reminding voters that his focus is New Hampshire, not national politics.He’s “running as well as you could as a Republican in a contested state,” says Mr. Merrill, who advised then-Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential run in New Hampshire in 2016. “John Sununu is the perfect Republican candidate – facing a perfect storm facing all Republicans nationally.” ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to “speak the truth in love.” Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.