As election nears, Israelis fear polarization could spark violence

(AFP) — Warnings are growing that violence could break out between rival political camps ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election, with powerful figures, including top government ministers, accused of inciting hostility against opponents.Israel was rocked in 2023 by mass protests against a judicial overhaul widely seen as an attempt to curb the courts’ powers. Protests flared again after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack, this time over the government’s conduct of the war in Gaza and the stalemate in hostage negotiations.The fighting in Gaza has decreased in intensity and the hostages have returned home, but political tensions inside Israel have not subsided.The offices of the government-critical Haaretz newspaper and Channel 12 News were vandalized in July, with the culprit leaving a note threatening to next aim a brick at journalists’ heads.A recent poll by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies found that the scenario seen as most threatening over the next five years was “violent conflict between societal groups,” narrowly ahead of “Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.” Both were cited by about 39% of respondents.Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in late July that the Shin Bet domestic security service had warned him of “various threats to the integrity of the elections, both internal and external.”Fanning the flamesPolls show a tight race in the election. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has gone on the offensive and warned that his opponents would align with lawmakers from Israel’s Arab minority.Some directly blame the government for fanning the flames. Parliament member Ofer Cassif of Hadash, an Arab-Jewish communist party, told AFP he was concerned opposition voters could face intimidation before and during the election — not only from police but from “private, armed militias.”Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who oversees the police, has overseen the issuance of more than 200,000 civilian firearm licenses since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, a move critics say is designed to build loyalty to the minister.Arab citizens, who make up more than 20% of Israel’s population, and areas with concentrations of liberal, anti-government voters were particularly at risk, Cassif warned.“It’s enough if (armed mobsters) are just going to be present, and people are just going to see them and tell themselves, ‘OK, if that’s the situation, it’s better if I don’t go to vote,’” he said.Ilana Shpaizman, a senior lecturer in political science at Bar-Ilan University, agreed that the likelier scenario is not open clashes between opposing groups but “violence led by the government towards publics that are more likely to vote against the government.”She warned specifically about police violence “that will be targeted towards Arab citizens in order to decrease their turnout and make them fear” voting.Rivals, not enemiesMembers of the government have publicly praised individuals who have intimidated Arab citizens. In one case, far-right agitator Mordechai David, who for months organized demonstrations harassing veteran Arab Israeli journalist Lucy Aharish outside her home, was commended by several coalition members.Another potential scenario, Shpaizman said, is one resembling the storming of the U.S. Capitol by supporters of President Donald Trump on Jan. 6, 2021, as they tried to stop certification of his election defeat.“For several months, the Likud and Netanyahu have been … preparing the ground to say that the elections were rigged. Basically, Netanyahu learned from Trump, and this is the playbook. If you say it enough times, people will believe it.”Yuval Eylon, a senior INSS researcher who authored the poll showing concern over violent conflict, told AFP that fear of political violence marks a new reality for Israel.Since the country’s founding in 1948, he said, “we have felt we have threats from the outside, and that we can deal with them, because we have a strong society.”In the past, external enemies tended to unify the country rather than divide it, he said. But that no longer appears to hold true as the pre-election atmosphere grows increasingly polarized, a trend also seen in many Western countries.“The atmosphere is that if one group will win, the other group will not feel Israel is their home anymore,” Eylon said. “When unity is not so strong … the fear is that an outside threat can knock you down.”In a televised speech in late July, Herzog, who holds a mostly ceremonial role, warned of “violence rearing its head” and reminded citizens that “elections are not a civil war.”“Do not turn rivals into enemies,” he said.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads