Are Young Men the New Kings of the Swing Vote?

Two years ago, it seemed that the young men of Gen Z were shaping up to be hardcore conservatives. More than half of them voted for Donald Trump’s second presidency, refuting the idea that young people tend to lean progressive. Liberal media panicked about finding “a Joe Rogan of the left” who could reach them, and conservatives took a victory lap. “Gen Z Has Turned Right!” Fox News’s Greg Gutfeld announced, citing a report from the Harvard Kennedy School that highlighted, among other insights, the ways social media has led to an increase in conservatism among young folks. A Turning Point USA Poll from around the same time declared Generation Z “the most conservative generation in decades.”On Tuesday night, though, as a blue tidal wave flipped states from Iowa to Texas, it was young men who comprised a critical segment of the new Democratic coalition. As reported by CIRCLE, a non-partisan research organization at Tufts University, white men between the ages of 18 to 29 voted blue by a 10-point margin; in 2024, exit polling indicated that 56% of all young men voted for Donald Trump. Even more remarkably, young people across the board voted for Democratic congressional candidates by a 40% margin, according to data from NBC.“In the wake of 2024, there was this whole catastrophizing panic,” says Aidan Kohn-Murphy, the founder of Gen Z for Change (formerly known as TikTok for Biden) and a prominent political influencer. “Oh my God, everything we thought about Gen Z is wrong. It's actually a conservative generation. And no, that's not what was happening. I mean, a huge part of Gen Z just didn't show up to vote because they didn't feel like they had a reason.”For Democratic strategist Eric Stern, connecting with men on an emotional level was critical in getting them out to vote. Stern has worked on Ruben Gallego and John Fetterman’s campaigns; his political ad agency, FIGHT, has produced spots for Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Senator-Elect Abdul El-Sayed, and Governor-Elect Gina Hinojosa, to name a few. This election cycle, Stern sought to change voters’ perception of what a Democrat can look like.“Our most notable ad of the general election was Bob [Brooks] standing in front of a literal dumpster fire and then putting it out because he's a firefighter,” he said. Brooks, now the Representative-elect in the Lehigh Valley, flipped his seat on Tuesday. “A ton of Latino men are really into boxing and MMA fighting, and so Ruben [Gallego] held events around boxing,” Stern told me. For Texas’ Hinojosa, who'll become the state’s first Democratic governor in 35 years when she's sworn in in January, that meant running an ad during Mexican boxing champion Canelo Álvarez's match against Christian Mbilli, an event with a massive Latino viewing audience.Still, Kohn-Murphy and Stern both argued that the main issue on the ballot this cycle was affordability. “If you look at polling, far and away the top issue for voters is cost of living,” Stern said. “And so you can run a million ads saying that ‘Jane Doe is for they/them,’ but it's not going to resonate with people in the same way if they can't afford to keep their lights on.”When I asked Republican political consultant Kirsten Kukowski about young men voting blue, she brought up affordability too. After all, nearly nine months into the Iran War, a barrel of oil still costs $100. “Men and young men voted with their bank accounts,” she offered. “And for the last several years, that's how they've been voting. And I think that's how Donald Trump won that group two years ago, because he was talking about affordability and inflation.”Kukowski, the former Communications Director for the Republican National Committee, now runs her own firm, K2 and Company, out of Minneapolis. “At some point here, people expect results,” she continued. “People expected results from Donald Trump, and they didn't see that. So now we're on the clock again for another two years.”