Are American AAdvantage Miles Slowly & Steadily Losing Value?

For years, American AAdvantage miles have been the gold standard among mileage currencies at the “big three” US carriers. American deserves huge credit for its AAdvantage program, and I’d argue it’s one of the main areas where the airline has a competitive advantage over Delta and United. For that matter, I think AAdvantage leadership has generally done a good job trying to preserve the value of the program, to the best of their ability.However, as time has gone on, I can’t help but feel like AAdvantage miles have become less valuable, and it’s arguably not even the carrier’s fault. I’d like to talk a bit about that trend, and also discuss what’s perhaps the new sweet spot of redemptions. The American AAdvantage partner award availability problemAAdvantage now shines for redemptions on American metalBottom line The American AAdvantage partner award availability problemAmerican AAdvantage continues to deserve credit for publishing an award chart for travel on partner airlines, and for offering excellent redemption rates for first and business class travel on partner airlines on long haul flights.The issue is, American’s partner airlines keep restricting award availability, and it makes it increasingly difficult to actually extract value. Let me be clear, this is in no way American’s fault, as the airline doesn’t have control over the award availability that other airlines release, though it definitely does impact the value of miles:Qatar Airways used to release a ton of business class award space to partner programs, but that has changed massively over the years; at this point most availability is limited to Privilege Club members, and even there the number of award seats is limitedEtihad Airways first class and business class awards have equally been restricted, and at this point you can at best hope for award seats at the last minuteCathay Pacific first class and business class awards on long haul flights through partner programs are virtually non-existent nowadaysJapan Airlines first class and business class awards through partner programs are like winning the lottery nowadays, and actually finding long haul award space to and from the United States isn’t easyWhat I struggle with is that if you can actually find award availability, the redemption values are incredible. The question is just how useful the availability actually is. Like, want to fly from Abu Dhabi to Tokyo tonight in Etihad’s A380 first class? It’s available for 50,000 miles. That’s basically a gift… if that route is at all useful to you. Etihad first class award with AAdvantage milesWant to fly from Bangkok to Tokyo in a couple of days in Japan Airlines’ 777 first class? That’s available for 40,000 miles, which is an incredible deal.Japan Airlines first class award with AAdvantage milesBut again, it gets at redemptions that are aspirational because of the products, vs. ones that are actually useful in getting members to and from where they need to go. What about other partner award redemptions? Yes, there’s a fair bit of British Airways award space, but that comes with huge carrier imposed surcharges. You’ll also find a smattering of award seats on carriers like Aer Lingus, Finnair, Iberia, Royal Air Maroc, Royal Jordanian, etc., but again, availability to and from the United States often leaves a lot to be desired.The point is that virtually every one of the redemptions that has historically made AAdvantage miles so valuable has gone from something that’s relatively attainable, to something that’s more like winning a lottery. Again, none of this is American’s fault — it all just reflects the changing industry dynamics, and the way airlines have changed how they release award space.Historically I’ve valued AAdvantage miles at 1.5 cents each, though I am wondering if it might be time to adjust that down slightly, to reflect all these updates?Sweet spot redemptions are becoming harder to come byIt’s not as shiny or glamorous as long haul premium cabin awards, but AAdvantage deserves credit for having reasonably priced award tickets for travel on American metal. This is particularly true domestically and for short haul international flights, but also for long haul international flights. As I see it:On balance, American has better domestic economy and first class award pricing than Delta and UnitedEven when there’s not saver award availability, American’s dynamic award pricing on long haul flights tends to be more attractive than that of Delta and United, on averageThe issue is twofold:When American does have saver award space, you’ll still typically get better value redeeming Alaska Atmos Rewards points; American has started cutting off partner award space six days before departure, which limits the usefulness of this for last minute ticketsAmerican’s actual long haul route network is quite limited, so that’s useful if you want to travel to Seoul, Shanghai, or Tokyo (for example), but this is where American’s huge long haul network gap compared to carriers like United is really feltIn a separate post, I covered how MileagePlus miles are becoming more valuable, simply for redemptions on United metal, given how that space has otherwise been restricted. But the key advantage that United has over American is its network, as it’s so much more global. Of course if you’re redeeming to El Paso or Grand Cayman or Lima, it’s a different story. But if you’re trying to get to Cape Town, or Nice, or Tahiti, or Singapore, there’s a pretty obvious winner.AAdvantage often has good award pricing on American metalBottom lineAmerican AAdvantage is in my opinion the best of the “big three” frequent flyer programs, and I’m a fan of the value offered. I think AAdvantage leadership is doing a good job on balance doing what they can to make the program rewarding and lucrative. Historically, the great value with AAdvantage miles has been the attractive redemption rates for travel on partner airlines. However, the general industry trend is that we’re increasingly seeing airlines limit partner award availability, and I’d argue that has hit AAdvantage especially hard.Want to fly out of the US in a premium cabin on Cathay Pacific, Etihad Airways, Japan Airlines, or Qatar Airways? Well, it at times almost feels like buying a lottery ticket, while back in the day, it wasn’t difficult at all.With these changes, I’d argue that nowadays the best use of AAdvantage miles is for partner awards that don’t even touch the United States (where availability is often better), or otherwise for awards on American metal.What do you make of this trend with AAdvantage miles, and how do you think their value has changed over the years?