Anthropic’s IPO could be the biggest ever. Your AI budget helps explain why

Good morning. Anthropic hasn’t filed its S-1 yet, but one of its early backers is already predicting the biggest IPO ever. A longtime Anthropic investor, who asked not to be named, told Fortune’s Shawn Tully that he expects the shares to be priced at around $1.8 trillion—below the company’s reported $2 trillion target. He predicts a post-IPO trading value of $2.3 trillion to $2.4 trillion, surpassing SpaceX’s $2.1 trillion market cap at the close of its first trading day. He argues that figure reflects Anthropic’s underlying worth, not a short-lived first-day pop. For finance professionals, however, the more consequential story may be the economics of enterprise AI. About 80% of Anthropic’s revenue comes from corporate customers, compared with roughly half of OpenAI’s sales, Tully reports. One reason the investor backed Anthropic, he told Fortune, was that it was “more of an enterprise play” than a consumer business. That enterprise focus makes his prediction about AI spending especially worth watching. He expects prices to fall as open models gain ground, even as usage continues to explode. For CFOs, that creates a familiar budgeting challenge: AI costs per unit may decline even as total spending keeps climbing. Lower prices don’t necessarily mean lower budgets when adoption is accelerating. Then there’s the valuation. A debut near $2 trillion would require enormous profit growth to justify it. The investor isn’t fazed, calling Anthropic “the fastest-growing company in history” and arguing that it can afford to slow down and still deliver substantial value. That’s his conviction, not yet a verdict from public markets. Read Tully’s full story here. LeaderboardFortune 500 Power Moves Mark Long was named CFO of Supermicro, (No. 208) effective immediately. Long succeeds David Weigand, who will help with the transition. Long was most recently CFO and chief strategy officer of Western Digital, where he led financial management, investor relations, and corporate strategy. He also co-founded Prime Impact Capital, a technology-focused investment firm, and was SVP of strategy and corporate development at Hitachi Global Storage Technologies. Earlier in his career, he held senior investment banking roles focused on the software, cloud infrastructure, and storage sectors. The weekly Fortune 500 Power Moves column tracks Fortune 500 company C-suite shifts—see the most recent edition. More notable moves this week: Kenneth Crews was appointed CFO-elect of SAIC, a government technology services company, effective Oct. 30. He will formally become CFO on Dec. 7, succeeding Prabu Natarajan. Natarajan, who will stay on as CFO during the transition, has been named permanent EVP of SAIC's civilian business group after leading it on an interim basis. Crews previously served as corporate VP and CFO of Northrop Grumman, where he held several leadership roles over more than 20 years. Brian Erickson was appointed CFO of Runpod, an AI developer cloud platform. Erickson most recently served as CFO of Suzy, an AI-powered consumer insights platform. Previously, he was CFO of Transfix, where he helped guide the company through its sale, and held senior finance roles at DigitalOcean, where he helped the company navigate its IPO. He also held finance roles supporting the cloud businesses at Amazon and Microsoft. Anne Giviskos was appointed CFO of MoonPay, a financial technology company Giviskos most recently served as interim CFO and chief accounting officer at Navan, an AI-powered business travel and expense platform. She previously held executive roles at the New York Stock Exchange and Euronext. Andrew Hodson was named CFO of PharmaCorp, effective Oct. 27. Hodson takes over from Terri Tatchell, who retires that day. She will stay on as a consultant for three months to help with the handover. Hodson was most recently head of finance at Marshall Land Systems. Before that, he was VP of finance at Vendasta Technologies, where he led the finance work on strategic acquisitions. He also spent six years at Deloitte Canada. Nathan Iles was appointed SVP of finance at Dauch Corporation, a supplier of driveline and metal-forming parts to the auto industry, effective Nov. 2. He will become CFO on Dec. 1, succeeding Christopher May. That same day, May will become EVP and chief administrative officer, keeping the IT organization and taking on executive oversight of HR. Iles brings more than 25 years of finance leadership, most recently as CFO of Standard Motor Products, an auto parts supplier. Before that, he was VP and CFO of UCI International Holdings. Joseph Sesin was appointed CFO of the NFL's Denver Broncos. He most recently served as SVP of finance and accounting at Angel City Football Club of the National Women's Soccer League. Previously, Sesin was SVP of accounting and finance for SoFi Stadium, YouTube Theater and Hollywood Park in Los Angeles. Before that, he spent nearly a decade in investment banking at J.P. Morgan. Big DealCFOs may want to pay close attention to their CEO's stress levels. Nearly 60% of chief executives plan to replace a member of their senior team in the next six months, and CFOs top that list, according to the second edition of BCG's CEO Insomnia Index. Only 63% of CEOs are confident their senior leadership teams can carry out their vision over the next two to four quarters. The report also points to an AI trust gap. Nearly 90% of CEOs are confident their employees trust their leadership, but only 46% of employees agree. Just 15% of CEOs worry their approach to AI transformation could erode trust, while 40% of employees say their CEO hasn't been transparent enough about how AI will affect their roles and careers. That gap matters for returns: half of employees whose trust grew because of their CEO's approach to AI say they're more willing to go above and beyond at work, compared with fewer than 10% of those whose trust eroded. Overall, CEO stress has eased slightly. BCG's stress barometer reads 64.2 out of 100, down 2.5 points from the first edition. However, 60% of chief executives say near-term pressures take up a disproportionate share of their time, and 34% say they've considered stepping down in the past six months. BCG surveyed 645 CEOs at companies with $100 million or more in revenue, along with 500 non-executive employees. Courtesy of BCG Going deeperHere are four Fortune weekend reads: "Nvidia CEO Huang says society shouldn’t tolerate AI cyber incidents, says AI doomers 'ought to stop working on' the technology" —Jeremy Kahn and Beatrice Nolan "The CEO of supply chain giant Flex says infrastructure and the grid needs to scale with AI—or else ‘Forget all the frontier models’"—Emma Burleigh "The new energy permitting bill to feed the AI boom unites fossil fuels and clean power while dividing green energy and environmentalists" —Jordan Blum "Tina Knowles launched hair care line Cécred with daughter Beyoncé after years of mixing custom hair treatments" —Amanda Gerut Overheard"Certainty and clarity are not the same thing. Certainty is rarely available when you need it most. Clarity always is." —ConnectOne Bank CEO Frank Sorrentino III, writes in a Fortune opinion piece.