Analyst: Visayas, Mindanao voters’ loyalty drove 2028 top bets’ survey lead

From left, Vice President Sara Duterte, former President Rodrigo Duterte and Senator Christopher “Bong” Go (File photos) MANILA, Philippines — A political science professor attributed the lead in a recent survey of top bets for the 2028 presidential, vice presidential and senatorial elections to the “loyalty” of some ethnic groups in Visayas and Mindanao. It also pertains to the people’s connection to former President Rodrigo Duterte. The results of a survey by polling firm Pulse Asia published on Wednesday showed Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, in the lead for the presidential race polling at 49 percent. Article continues after this advertisement The same poll showed the former president’s aide-turned-senator – Christopher “Bong” Go – topping the vice presidential race at 27 percent; and vocal Duterte supporter Sen. Robin Padilla leading the senatorial race at 48.4 percent. In an interview with the Inquirer on Thursday, University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman – Department of Political Science professor Jean Encinas-Franco pointed to Duterte’s hold on Visayas and Mindanao voters. The Pulse Asia survey showed Duterte polling at 53 percent among Visayas voters and 87 percent among Mindanao voters, compared to 39 percent among National Capital Region (NCR) voters, and 31 percent among voters in Luzon outside Metro Manila. “That tells you that there is somehow what we call the ethnolinguistic loyalty that Sara Duterte captures among the Visayans and those that are from Mindanao. I think it’s a big factor,” Franco explained. READ: Sara Duterte, Bong Go top bets for president, VP in 2028, survey says Article continues after this advertisement Rodrigo Duterte effect The UP political science professor also pointed to Vice President Duterte’s fallout with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. after their UniTeam alliance succeeded in the 2022 elections. “UniTeam was powerful because they both have a legacy of strongman rule through former Presidents Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and Rodrigo Duterte. So, they both borrowed it from their fathers,” Franco said. Article continues after this advertisement “But, when Marcos became president, people discovered that he was unlike his father. Then, their tandem fell apart. So, people who thought Marcos would be like his father would be more supportive of Sara Duterte,” she observed. “Perhaps, in their minds, Sara Duterte has been consistent with what they expected of a politician, given that their narrative, the discourse in which they appreciate Sara Duterte, is still very much affected by how they look at Rodrigo Duterte,” she said. Franco also attributed Go and Padilla’s leads in the surveys for the vice presidential and senatorial race to their association to the former president. “It’s not so much because it is Bong Go. It is because of what Bong Go represents,” she said. As for Padilla, she explained, “He’s very vocal about his support of the Dutertes, and also his support of the Dutertes is very much aligned with his celebrity appeal – action star, speaking like a regular guy.” READ: ‘Broken from start’, UniTeam sees complete collapse Vice President Duterte’s impeachment Vice President Duterte is currently the subject of an impeachment trial in which she is accused of misusing public funds, amassing unexplained wealth, bribing Department of Education officials and threatening Marcos’ life. Has the impeachment proceedings affected Duterte’s polling? “It doesn’t reveal much about the impact of the impeachment trial, so that may be one explanation,” Franco said. While the Duterte impeachment trial began last July 6, the Pulse Asia survey was conducted from June 28 to July 3 and July 6. But, with only nine of the estimated 92 days in the impeachment trial passing so far, will the proceedings have any effect on Duterte’s lead? “It’s difficult to speculate given the high numbers of VP Sara currently,” Franco replied. “But, my sense is that, somehow, her popularity will be affected, especially when revelations about her bank records and the confidential funds will once again be revealed in the impeachment trial,” she said. The political science professor also drew a stark comparison between Duterte’s impeachment trial and that of former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada due to the prevalence of social media now. So, people can actually participate while the trial is ongoing even if they are not in the trial itself, even if they are not present in the plenary halls of the Senate. “At the end of the day, if the prosecution presents the case against VP Sara as somehow reneging on her promise to better the lives of the Filipino people, somehow going against the strongman appeal, it’s very potent,” Franco pointed out. “In the past, people, kind of, withdrew their support against politicians—not so much that they are corrupt—but if they see that this corruption led to a lifestyle that is very far from their own lifestyle,” she recalled. /apl Your subscription could not be saved. Please try again. Your subscription has been successful.