ANALYSIS: The DA has set the election playing field in Joburg — for now

It is an old law of political campaigns that the best way to win an election is to set the playing field.Donald Trump convinced voters in the US that the real issue was to “Make America Great Again”. Before that, famously, Bill Clinton won in 1992 with “It’s the economy, stupid”, while Barack Obama claimed victory with the explicitly inclusive “Yes we can”.Many of our elections have seen a contest between parties that have tried to appeal to issues around administration, governance and service delivery, and others that have appealed directly to identity.This is still the case now.The Freedom Front Plus, for example, is using the slogan “Dis Ons Tyd” (It’s our time). Its message could not be clearer.The DA has chosen a very different path.It claims that voting for Helen Zille is a vote to “save Joburg”. This is explicitly about service delivery. On the campaign trail, Zille’s famous videos have seen her highlighting this issue consistently. Aided by the hapless administration of Dada Morero, this has made for entertaining, and thus viral, video content.And, when she has been asked about other issues, Zille has refused to discuss Palestine or Gaza or identity.When asked by Daily Maverick whether she believes her campaign has been able to define the issue of the election in terms of service delivery, she said: “We do a lot of polling. The biggest issues for people, mostly across the board, [are] water, electricity and jobs, with some change in the hierarchy of importance depending on the community. But those are the top three. The state of roads is also high on the list. Nowhere does race or identity come up.”She continued, “No one would care about the race of the water engineer, as long as they get the water back on. I often discuss the key election issues and then I say: ‘In this election, for the first time, let’s make the ISSUES the issue.’ That lands in all communities.”Service delivery and identity politicsIf Zille is correct, this might be a reflection of several dynamics.The first is simply the sheer state of Joburg. You have read enough complaints about the city in these pages not to suffer a repeat, but it is now accepted as an objective fact that the current coalition has created a mess.Voters can see this with their own eyes.Also, our national conversation about race appears to have changed fundamentally.For various reasons, to do with the simple passage of time since 1994, the fact that so many institutions in our society are now genuinely diverse in character and that many in the black middle class may be more interested in services than race, race is not as defining a political issue as it once was.The message that Julius Malema used on behalf of the ANC in the 2011 local elections, when he told the ANC’s campaign rally at the FNB Stadium that “The DA is for white people, the ANC is for you” has lost much of its power.The other big advantage for the DA is that Zille started campaigning so much earlier than other parties.As a result, they may have been able to define the playing field long before the other players arrived. This is the result of competent politics, and it may well be an important advantage going into the final week of elections.But the space has been left open because of the hapless nature of the ANC in Joburg.Absent ANCThe ANC appears completely divided, meaning that Dada Morero has been able to remain in office despite not really being in power. As a result, his public statements – that Joburg has enough money, or that it will improve services – are simply not believed.It does not help that he often appears to be simply lying.Despite consistently claiming that the City has budgeted enough money to improve electricity and water services, the Joburg Crisis Committee’s Julia Fish told The Money Show this week that this is simply not true. Instead, the amounts budgeted are nowhere near enough to actually fund what must be done.At the same time, the ANC has been unable to agree on a candidate, which has meant there is no focal point for its campaign.The latest reporting on the issue, from News 24, suggests Frank Chikane might well head the ANC’s campaign. He may provide an honest face for the campaign, and has a long history in the city (he has been preaching at a parish in Soweto for many, many years), but it may require more than even his reputation.Reverend Frank Chikane is reportedly the front-runner to be the ANC’s Joburg mayoral candidate. (Photo: Matthew Hirsch) At some point, the ANC will probably go back to what it knows – that it tries to make race a central feature of this campaign.This might well focus on the DA’s attempt to stop the R10-billion wage increase for Samwu members, where Zille will be accused of trying to stop an increase for black workers. One can imagine how the word “madam” could be used in this context.Gaza in JoziIt is also possible that the ANC, and others, such as Al Jama-ah, will try to force the Gaza issue into the campaign.In some communities, the government’s case at the International Court of Justice against Israel might well be important. And the slogan “Vote ANC/Al Jama-ah to Save Gaza” could have incredible pull.In an election in which turnout is crucial, this may well be effective in certain communities.While the main target may be the DA, it would also work for a party wanting to differentiate itself from the Patriotic Alliance, which supports Israel.As a result, the Gaza issue could suddenly suck in political oxygen and become a major issue in the campaign.Also, the nature of our society, the fact that so many have their lives defined by racialised inequality, means this will always be a potent political tool.For the moment, the DA appears to have many of the advantages, particularly because it has made service delivery the issue so early in the campaign.The issue is now whether other parties can catch up and change the defining issue of this election in Joburg. DM