Analysis: Pro-Russia AfD Eyes First German State Government as Support Surges

Germany enters a decisive month of state elections with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) closer to executive power than at any point in its history.Saxony-Anhalt votes on Sunday, Sept. 6. The latest projection gives the AfD 41%, almost twice the 20.8% it received in the previous state election in 2021. The governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) trails on 23%.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.In practical terms, approximately two out of every five voters now support the AfD, while only slightly more than one in five backs the CDU. The AfD could become the largest party by an 18-point margin, although the projection indicates that an outright parliamentary majority remains unlikely.The party is also leading in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which votes on Sept. 20. An Infratest dimap poll puts the AfD at 35%, narrowly ahead of the governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 32%.The AfD received 16.7% there in 2021. It has therefore more than doubled its support in the last five years, while the SPD has fallen from 39.6%.Berlin votes on the same day. The AfD is not leading there, but its support has risen to approximately 18%, compared with 9.1% in the city’s 2023 repeat election.From eastern protest party to national forceThe September elections form part of a longer rise.The AfD received 10.4% in Germany’s 2021 federal election. Four years later, it doubled that result to 20.8%, becoming the country’s second-largest party in the Bundestag. National polling now places it at approximately 28%, ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc. Other Topics of Interest Kyiv Airports Struck in Response to US Diplomacy, Zelensky Says President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces deliberately targeted airports in Kyiv and Boryspil to disrupt an upcoming US diplomatic visit. The party remains strongest in the formerly communist east, but its growth is no longer confined there.“The AfD has much greater popularity in the eastern, so-called new federal states than in the old ones,” Berlin-based journalist Nikolai Klimeniouk told Kyiv Post.“But its popularity is also growing sharply in western Germany.” Klimeniouk linked the trend to a broader loss of trust in mainstream politics.“There is a sense of a general crisis of democracy and distrust toward it,” he said. “It is understandable that anti-liberal populist forces gain support under such conditions.”The same trajectory was identified after the AfD’s strong results in Saxony and Thuringia in 2024.Foreign-policy expert Benjamin Tallis said that voters were concerned about Germany’s decline and the absence of a credible future. Many believed they were not being heard on inflation and migration – issues to which the governing parties had failed to provide convincing answers.Tallis warned that populist parties would continue rising unless Germany’s democratic parties “get their act together.”That prediction has been confirmed. However, Tallis also cautioned against interpreting every AfD vote as a direct rejection of support for Ukraine.State elections do not determine foreign policy, and Ukraine was not among the principal concerns reported by AfD voters in 2024.No weapons for Ukraine, no sanctions on RussiaThe AfD’s federal program calls for an end to German weapons deliveries to Ukraine, the removal of sanctions against Russia, and negotiations that would leave Ukraine outside both NATO and the EU.Its official foreign-policy platform states: “The USA remains our partner. Russia should become one.”The party supports restoring economic relations with Moscow and reopening the Nord Stream pipelines.That would revive the energy model that former Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk described to Kyiv Post as Germany’s “self-inflicted Russian dependency.”Germany began breaking with that model following Russia’s full-scale invasion, including by reducing its reliance on Russian energy and supplying increasingly advanced weapons to Ukraine, a change Kyiv Post documented in 2022.The AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt parliamentary group has opposed Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU, rejected weapons deliveries, and backed continued use of Nord Stream 2.The state party’s 2026 program goes even further, proposing that Ukrainians in Germany no longer be recognized as war refugees. It argues that Ukrainians affected by fighting should seek protection in western Ukraine instead.AfD leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla boycotted President Volodymyr Zelensky’s 2024 Bundestag address. They called him a “war and beggar president,” questioned his legitimacy, and accused him of seeking German money for reconstruction.The Russian sympathies became particularly visible following the attempted explosive-drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport on Aug. 4.The German government concluded that people acting for Russian state agencies were responsible. Berlin responded by closing Russia’s consulate general in Bonn and terminating the agreement governing the Russian House cultural center in Berlin.As Kyiv Post reported, the Russian House is operated by the sanctioned Kremlin agency Rossotrudnichestvo and has faced accusations of spreading propaganda, supporting Russian influence operations and pressuring journalists through litigation.Despite Berlin’s announcement, the center can remain open until its governing agreement expires in June 2027.However, Chrupalla accused the government of applying “double standards.” He said he would have welcomed an equivalent response to what he described as Ukraine’s attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.Meanwhile, the AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt program calls for closer economic and cultural relations with Russia and expanded Russian-language teaching in schools. It describes the established parties’ “anti-Russian policy” as contrary to German interests.What an AfD state government could actually do.Winning a state election would not give the AfD control over German foreign policy.Under Germany’s Basic Law, relations with foreign states are conducted by the federal government. Foreign affairs and defense fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction.An AfD minister-president in Magdeburg or Schwerin could not end German weapons deliveries to Ukraine, lift EU sanctions, reopen Nord Stream, or withdraw Germany from NATO.A state government would nevertheless control institutions with substantial power over everyday life.Germany’s states are responsible for education, culture, and most policing. An AfD government could reshape school curricula, redirect cultural funding, alter integration programs, appoint senior civil servants, and place its own ministers above the state police and domestic intelligence service.That last possibility has created particular concern in Saxony-Anhalt, where the state intelligence service has classified the AfD branch as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization.An AfD interior minister could oversee the same state agency that monitors the party. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already said classified information should not be shared with AfD officials if the party enters government, citing its proximity to Vladimir Putin.A state government would also represent Saxony-Anhalt in the Bundesrat, the chamber through which Germany’s states participate in federal legislation. One state could not overturn Berlin’s policy alone, but it could use its votes, ministries, and political platform to obstruct legislation and promote closer relations with Moscow.The larger risk for UkraineAll major German parties continue to rule out forming coalitions with the AfD. Winning the most votes would therefore not automatically make AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund state premier.But an AfD result above 40% could leave the other parties unable to form a stable majority without alliances they have also rejected. That could produce a fragile minority government or increase pressure on the CDU to reconsider its firewall against cooperation with the far right.For Ukraine, the immediate danger is not that Saxony-Anhalt will suddenly take control of German foreign policy. It’s the possibility of the AfD gaining its first record of executive government, normalizing its pro-Russia program, and forcing every other party to respond to its success before the next federal election in 2029.In 2024, Tallis warned that mainstream politicians could misread regional protest votes as demands to reduce support for Ukraine. Two years later, the AfD is substantially stronger, its position toward Kyiv is unchanged, and the party is closer than ever to acquiring real state power.