Amid GDP credibility debate, IMF backs India's statistical reforms

Amid the ongoing debate over the credibility of India’s latest GDP estimates, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has welcomed the country’s efforts to modernise its statistical framework, saying the introduction of a new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Producer Price Index (PPI) series should help improve the accuracy of GDP estimates.Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department at the IMF, said the latest GDP release incorporated the two new statistical series and described their inclusion as an important step towards strengthening India’s macroeconomic statistics."The latest GDP release that we just talked about incorporated both a new index of industrial production, and a new producer price index series, and those two new series should help improve India’s GDP estimates," Kozack said in response to a question from PTI at the IMF’s monthly briefing.(Video: @IMFSpokesperson/X) "We welcome these important steps that India is taking to modernise its macroeconomic statistics," she said, while encouraging the Indian authorities to continue strengthening the statistical framework and data quality.Her comments come amid scrutiny of India’s latest GDP numbers, with questions being raised in some quarters over the methodology and data underlying the estimates. The IMF’s endorsement of the statistical changes comes as the government has been working to update the country’s national accounts and related economic indicators. Kozack, however, pointed to the strength of the latest growth numbers, saying India's real GDP expanded 7.8 per cent in the second quarter, exceeding both the IMF staff’s expectations and the consensus among other observers."This upward surprise was driven by stronger-than-expected activity in the services sector, and also in exports," she said.(Video: @IMFSpokesperson/X)According to Kozack, the latest performance also highlights the resilience of the Indian economy at a time when higher energy prices have created additional pressure on major oil-importing economies."The outcome also underscores the resilience of the Indian economy, despite the energy price shock," she said.India imports a substantial share of its crude oil requirements, making movements in global oil prices an important factor for its external balances, inflation and fiscal position. Kozack said an increase in energy or oil prices can put pressure on the balance of payments of energy-importing countries and can also affect their fiscal positions."In India’s case, the shock has occurred at a time when the country has been in a stronger economic position," she said.The IMF is continuing to assess the impact of higher oil prices on the Indian economy and will provide a fresh assessment in its upcoming forecasts."We are monitoring the effects of higher oil prices on the Indian economy and will announce our new forecasts for India in October," Kozack said."So far, India has shown quite a lot of resilience to the energy price shock," she added.The IMF’s assessment comes against the backdrop of India continuing to be viewed as one of the major drivers of global economic growth. Kozack said the latest growth performance reinforced the IMF’s view that India remains a key growth engine for the world economy.India’s strong services activity and export performance were particularly important in driving the latest quarterly growth outcome, according to the IMF.At the same time, the IMF stressed the importance of maintaining improvements in the quality and coverage of India’s economic data. Kozack said the authorities should continue their efforts to strengthen the statistical framework, suggesting that improvements in underlying economic indicators would help make future GDP estimates more robust.The comments are significant because GDP estimates depend on a wide range of underlying indicators, including industrial output, prices and activity across different sectors of the economy. Changes to those indicators can therefore influence the measurement of real economic activity.The government’s introduction of the new IIP and PPI series is part of the broader effort to modernise India's statistical system. The IMF’s support indicates that, while questions around the latest GDP estimates may continue to be debated, the international lender sees the statistical reforms themselves as a step in the right direction.For now, the IMF’s message is broadly positive: India’s latest growth performance has exceeded expectations, the economy has demonstrated resilience despite the energy shock, and ongoing improvements to the statistical framework should help strengthen the measurement of economic activity.Kozack reiterated that India remains a "key growth engine" for the global economy.- EndsPublished On: Sep 11, 2026 08:44 IST