Americans’ Job-Loss Fears Fall, New York Fed Survey Shows

Americans grew more confident about keeping their jobs and finding new work in September, while expecting faster household income growth and a lower likelihood of falling behind on debt payments, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Wednesday. The perceived probability of losing a job over the next 12 months fell to 13.5 percent, its lowest level since December 2024. Consumers also reported better prospects of finding another job and a greater likelihood of leaving their current positions voluntarily. The findings from the New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed improvement across several measures of employment and household payment confidence, even as consumers anticipated higher inflation in the near term. The average perceived probability of finding work within three months after losing a job increased to 46.1 percent from 45.4 percent, moving above its trailing 12-month average. The expected probability of quitting voluntarily rose to 19.9 percent from 19.5 percent. Declining job-loss expectations were driven by respondents between ages 40 and 60 and those with annual household incomes above $100,000. The increase in expected quits was driven by those without a bachelor’s degree and respondents above age 40. Consumers also assigned a lower probability to an increase in the national unemployment rate over the coming year. That measure declined to 43.9 percent from 44.4 percent. Households’ expectations for income and spending strengthened alongside the improving employment outlook. Median expected household income growth increased to 3.1 percent, its highest reading since February 2025. Expected spending growth rose to 5.5 percent, the highest since May 2023, with increases across age and education groups. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell to 12.2 percent from 13.2 percent, dropping below its trailing average. Inflation expectations increased at shorter horizons. Consumers expected prices to rise 3.9 percent over the next year, up from 3.6 percent in August and the highest reading since May 2023. Three-year inflation expectations edged up to 3.3 percent, while five-year expectations remained unchanged at 3 percent. Despite the improvement in employment and payment expectations, households’ assessments of their finances deteriorated. Larger shares reported being worse off than a year earlier and expected their financial situation to worsen over the coming year—a result likely tied to recent experience with persistent inflation and rising inflation expectations. The survey was conducted September 1 through September 30 among a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads.