All the races that will decide control of the US Senate

Democrats must secure at least four additional seats in November's midterm elections to capture control of the 100-seat US Senate, where Republicans currently maintain a 53-47 majority.That prospect appeared unlikely at the start of the year. However, voter frustration over rising prices and the war in Iran, alongside the unpopularity of President Donald Trump, has made several contests competitive, including in states he carried comfortably in 2024.These critical races will determine control of the Senate:MaineMaine represents the primary opportunity for a Democratic pickup, as the single state featuring a Republican incumbent seeking re-election where Trump lost in 2024.Republican Senator Susan Collins has distanced herself from Trump and refused to join Vice President JD Vance on the campaign trail in the state.During a debate earlier this month, Collins — who voted to convict Trump after he was impeached following the January 6 insurrection — acknowledged that she isn't the president's favorite senator and said he won't be coming to Maine.Democrats say she only votes against Trump in the Senate when it doesn't matter — such as when she voted against a sweeping tax-cut package last year after backing it in a procedural vote. Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic candidate for the US Senate Troy Jackson during a debate at the Gracie Theatre in Bangor. (AFP/Getty)Democrats hope voters will hold her accountable for helping confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court, which led to the overturning of a federal right to abortion.Democrats, however, have their own drama. The party's original nominee, progressive oysterman Graham Platner, was pressured into withdrawing following sexual assault allegations, forcing the state party to scramble for a new candidate. Platner has denied the allegations.Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, another progressive, emerged as Platner's replacement.Jackson has nearly caught up to Collins on the fundraising front. He has raised $20.4 million (£15.3m) so far, with $4 million unspent as of September 30, while Collins has raised $24 million, with $5.4 million still in the bank.Outside groups are spending heavily as well. AdImpact, a monitoring service, predicts they will spend a total of $199 million on this election — equal to $171 for every adult in the state.Republican groups are outspending Democrats here, but most opinion polls show Jackson holding a narrow lead.OhioDemocrat Sherrod Brown is seeking to return to the Senate after losing his seat in 2024, and working-class frustration with the Iran war and rising prices may be giving him a tailwind.This time, Brown faces US Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the Senate to replace Vance when he left office for the White House.Democrat Sherrod Brown is seeking to return to the Senate after losing his seat in 2024. (Getty)The Ohio race has become one of the most expensive Senate contests in the nation. AdImpact estimates Republican groups will spend $246 million on ads, while Democrats will spend $177 million. Brown has $16 million available for the final stretch, while Husted has $8.8 million.Recent polls show Brown leading by between 1 and 8 percentage points.AlaskaTrump traveled to Alaska last week to shore up incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who is facing a stiff challenge from Democrat Mary Peltola, a former US Representative.Alaska allows voters to rank their top picks rather than choosing a single candidate. Voters will have four choices, including Sullivan, Peltola and another Dan Sullivan, a candidate Republicans have called a decoy in what they believe is a Democratic effort to confuse voters.Republican US Senator Dan Sullivan and Democratic US Senate candidate Mary Peltola participate in a debate in Anchorage, Alaska. (Reuters)Peltola has outraised Sullivan, but the Republican enters the final stretch of the campaign with $5.1 million in the bank, compared to $3.1 million for Peltola. Outside Republican groups have spent $33 million, while Democratic groups have spent $27 million.Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, but recent polls show Peltola leading or tied with Sullivan.TexasNo Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. James Talarico, a state representative, could break the streak.Texas Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico. (Getty)Talarico faces a historically weak Republican nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but Texas is still Texas — a big, conservative-leaning state that has dashed Democratic hopes repeatedly in recent years.Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. Yet outside Republican groups have already spent a staggering $240 million to hold the seat after runoff voters nominated the scandal-plagued Paxton over incumbent Republican US Senator John Cornyn. Trump endorsed Paxton even though Cornyn was widely believed to have an easier path to victory.Trump endorsed Ken Paxton even though Senator John Cornyn was widely believed to have an easier path to victory. (Reuters)Leaked audio has exposed daylight between Trump and Paxton, who privately told donors that the president's midterm convention hurt his campaign. Democratic groups have spent $50 million on this race, far less than Republicans. But Talarico's campaign has outraised Paxton's by $49 million and reported $16 million more in its campaign coffers as of September 30.Opinion polls show the race ranging from a tie to a 6-point Talarico lead.IowaTrump's unpopularity, tariffs and the Iran war have put Republicans on defense in Iowa, where Trump won by 13 points in 2024.Republican US Senator Joni Ernst's decision not to seek reelection has made this an open-seat contest between Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist.Ashley Hinson has outraised Josh Turek and had $6.9 million available to spend as of September 30 (AFP/Getty)Hinson has called for an "immediate end" to the Iran war and said Iowans should not have to pay higher fuel or grocery prices as a result of it. However, she has repeatedly voted against resolutions in Congress calling for an end to the war.Hinson has outraised Turek and had $6.9 million available to spend as of September 30, nearly three times what Turek has in his war chest. Outside Republican groups have spent $61 million to Democrats' $55 million.Recent polls show the race effectively tied.MichiganThe Democratic establishment didn't get its pick in Michigan. Progressive outsider Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated moderate US Representative Haley Stevens during the primary, putting him on a collision course with Republican Mike Rogers, a former US Representative, in what could be the tightest race for a Democratic-held Senate seat this year.Democrat US Senate candidate for Michigan Abdul El-Sayed speaks on stage with US Representative Ayanna Pressley, Democrat of Massachusetts, during a midterm campaign rally in Flint (AFP/Getty)Rogers has said Canada is not the United States' enemy, distancing himself from the president and his tariffs.Former Vice President Kamala Harris has campaigned with El-Sayed, and former President Barack Obama is set to rally with him later this month. The latest batch of polls shows El-Sayed leading by between 1 and 7 percentage points.Republicans have spent $104 million in Michigan's Senate race, nearly double Democrats' $55 million.New HampshireDemocrats are defending another open seat in New Hampshire, though this is a state Harris won by nearly 3 points in 2024.Democratic US Representative Chris Pappas is running against former US Senator John Sununu, who was ousted by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. Shaheen is retiring.Democratic US Senate candidate for New Hampshire Chris Pappas campaigning with California governor Gavin Newsom. (AFP/Getty)Sununu benefits from a famous last name. His brother Chris was governor until last year, and his father — also named John — was a governor and White House chief of staff for President George H.W. Bush.Republicans have outspent Democrats in this race, $30 million to $15.5 million.Pappas has maintained a consistent polling lead of 5 to 8 points in recent surveys.GeorgiaIncumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff appears to be holding his own against a challenge from Republican Representative Mike Collins in Georgia, a state Trump won by 2 percentage points in 2024. Recent polls show Ossoff holding a double-digit lead, and some outside Republican groups have pulled out of the race.Ossoff holds a clear financial advantage. He has raised $98 million as of September 30, with $26.3 million still unspent. Collins, by contrast, has raised $11 million and has $1.1 million available.North CarolinaRepublicans appear to have conceded North Carolina, where outside spending groups have dropped their support significantly in recent weeks.Opinion polls show former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper holding a steady lead over former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, a Trump ally. Former NC Governor Roy Cooper speaks at Sugar Creek Brewing during his "Make Stuff Cost Less" Tour in North Carolina. (Getty)It's a pickup opportunity for Democrats, as Republican Senator Thom Tillis is not seeking reelection.Cooper has raised $47.2 million, more than three times as much as his opponent, and has $12.5 million left to spend. Whatley has less than $1 million in the bank.Trump won North Carolina by 3 points in 2024.KansasThe political environment has shifted in favor of Democrats so much that Kansas is now in play. Republicans have diverted resources from North Carolina to shore up US Senator Roger Marshall, who in recent weeks has condemned the activity of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in his state.Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, but the state has twice elected Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. And Republican leaders have acknowledged the race is competitive and closer than they would like it to be. US Senator Roger Marshall has, in recent weeks, condemned the activity of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in his state. (Getty)Marshall's opponent is Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of a Methodist megachurch. Marshall's campaign has outraised Hamilton's by $3 million and has nearly $1 million more unspent.In a reversal of the usual pattern, Democratic groups have outspent Republicans here, $16 million to $11 million.Recent polls show Hamilton leading by between 1 and 3 percentage points.