'All hat and no cattle': Trump may be routed at next week's polls - and I think it could be a calamity... for the Democrats, writes JUSTIN WEBB

He's a freak. Perhaps he's gay. He might even be a vegan. Was he really suffering from flu recently or had he checked into a mental health institution in another state?Republicans in the state of Texas have asked all these questions – and plenty more – of the Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico.They have showered the state with adverts, spending an eye- watering $175million in the process. It's relentless and each single insinuation, in spite of all of them being entirely false, might have been enough to see poor Mr Talarico off. The vegan allegation in particular: Texans love beef and are suspicious of vegetables as a food category.So why is he still ahead in the polls? Why is the Democratic candidate in Kansas – rural, Trump-supporting Kansas – also looking strong? In Iowa, where Trump won by 13 points two years ago, the widest margin of any presidential candidate since 1972, the polls say it is now a closeSenate race. I could go on. What a turnaround. I was in Washington DC for the first heady days of the Trump second presidency. The man seemed unstoppable. He was funny, he was focused. He appeared never to sleep, firing people in the middle of the night, signing executive orders with a Sharpie that he'd chuck into an adoring crowd.Even Democrat-supporting friends of mine in the city seemed somehow relieved. Their own party would get a kick up the backside and if Trump could end illegal immigration, reduce inflation and combat woke universities, hey, maybe it's not all bad? Pictured: US President Donald Trump after he casts his ballot in the 2026 midterm elections Some Republicans have admitted to voting for a Democrat, endorsing James Talarico to represent Texas in the US SenateRacial minorities, worshipped by white Democrats, seemed to like him and in the case of Latinos had voted for him in record numbers.Turns out, as the Texans say, he was all hat and no cattle. True he has effectively closed the border but he followed it up with an unpopular and occasionally violent crackdown on immigrants living blameless lives inside the US. On inflation he has failed and on fuel prices, because of the Iran war, he has failed spectacularly.Latinos have cooled on Trump. As have many rural Americans – former Trump supporters who drive diesel trucks. In a world dominated by large cars and hard work, high diesel and petrol prices are not just a nuisance: they govern how a family feels about life.Push fuel prices too high and a man might even vote for an alleged vegan.In his extraordinary political career, Donald Trump has faced many a calamity, including the threat of jail, but this is his biggest crisis.Early voting has started, with the actual polling day coming a week on Tuesday. And the possibility looms that he loses control of both houses of Congress.But hold on. During the 2022 midterms, I remember telling rather surprised BBC interviewers that the result – a much better one for Joe Biden's Democrats than was predicted – was actually a potential disaster for them.It would convince the elderly president to campaign for a second term. And I was right: I still think that if the Democrats had done badly they would have ditched him and found a way better candidate. They could have seen Trump off in 2024.Once again, it seems to me that victory could lead, quite quickly, to defeat. Imagine the scene: the Democrats take both houses of Congress. Not only does moderate Mr Talarico win in Texas but so does Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. He's a firebrand, a Left-wing campaigner in the mould of the Mayor of New York Zohran Mamdani. And he would suddenly be the face of the national party, not confined to a city like Mamdani. This will do the party no favours as it tries to disabuse voters of its image as obsessively woke.El-Sayed, to be clear, is an able politician and has huge support particularly among the young. But he and his ilk would be looking to out-Trump Trump. They would want to destroy him as he has sought to destroy his opponents.They would try to impeach him again. This means Congressional hearings. It means time spent chasing down evidence of wrongdoing. And in theSenate, where two-thirds must vote to convict and remove him from office, it would almost certainly fail.That will not stop them raking over wrongdoing that many Americans might want to put behind them. It would become a sore when the country is looking for balm. And the Democrats would become a party of past grievances rather than forward-looking optimism.And then El-Sayed and his friends would press for a radical presidential candidate in the 2028 campaign and all that new-found support the party has in places like Kansas and Iowa might fade rather fast.Better perhaps to lose this time round or maybe take the lower House of Representatives but not the Senate. Better to face disappointment now, forcing the party to have a serious conversation about its appeal to all of America. Left leaning, even socialist in places. But centrist too, and with a candidate who can knit it all together. Just as Bill Clinton did in the 1990s and Barack Obama in this century.Talking of presidential candidates: that process of selection (yes, it's crazy) starts within hours of the results. Here it gets complicated and highly unpredictable. The Democrats might, as I suggest, live to regret winning big in 2026 if that is what happens.But not just because such a victory persuades their own party to adopt positions that are electorally unviable. It might also persuade the Republicans to double down on Trumpism. Or to claim that it has never been properly tried!In those circumstances it seems at least possible that this is the moment fringe people on the Right outside the party come out against him and try to seize the wheel.This might not be pretty. How about a presidential run from Tucker Carlson, the Right-wing influencer who clashed recently with the former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees- Mogg, who accused Carlson of getting dangerously close to defending Adolf Hitler.There are others too who might be willing to shake up the Republicans and thrust aside their ageing president – who'll be something of a lame duck if Congress blocks or delays his domestic agenda – and the obvious candidates to replace him in 2028, the Vice-President JD Vance and the Secretary of State Marco Rubio.Of course, all of this suggests that we have an actual result. But if it is close it is entirely possible the President tries to overturn it and we are in for weeks of dangerous and divisive squabbling.All American elections matter because America matters. This one might just matter a little bit more than normal.READ MORE: Meet the Republicans who are secretly voting Democrat in the midterms... despite a brutal backlash waiting at home