After Game 3 Rout, the World Series Is (97.67%) Over

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images The first two games of the World Series were each decided by one run. By one measly run on Friday night and one measly run on Saturday night, the Rays found their backs against the wall. Erase a baserunning blunder here or a defensive lapse there, and the series could have been tied, or even 2-0 in favor of Tampa Bay rather than Milwaukee. Such things can haunt a team. In Game 3 on Monday night, the Brewers relieved the Rays of those would’ves, could’ves, and should’ves with a 10-1 thrashing that left no room for doubt. It was kind of like taking somebody’s mind off a scraped knee by punching them in the throat. Lefty Robert Gasser, fresh off his first fullish major league season, continued his sparkling postseason run. Gasser went six innings, allowed just two baserunners, and because one was erased by a double play and the other on a caught stealing, he faced just 18 batters. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s the fewest batters you can face over six innings. Jackson Chourio, continuing his bid for World Series MVP and household name status, racked up four base hits, all of them hit 99 mph or harder. But singling out individual Brewers misses the larger point. All nine hitters in the Milwaukee starting lineup reached base. Eight of them had base hits. Eight of them had at least one hard-hit ball. Eight of them had at least one RBI. All nine of them scored. They outhit the Rays, 16-3. The Brewers started former Brewer ace Freddy Peralta, and for short while, it looked like he might give his old team fits and give the Rays a chance to climb back into the series. But a wild fifth inning put an end to that particular revenge fantasy. The Brewers led by so much that they emptied the bench to make sure everybody got to hit. They led by so much that they put in Brandon Woodruff, whose shoulder had kept him out since the Fourth of July, to pitch the ninth. The Brewers lead the series 3-0, and as we all know, that makes them the 44th team in AL/NL history to go up 3-0 in a seven-game series. Forty-two of the previous 43 went on to close the deal. In other words, history says the Brewers have a 97.67% chance of raising the trophy, while the Rays have just a 2.33% chance of snatching it from their yeasty, hoppy hands.FanGraphs Playoff Coverage Is for MembersYou must be a Member in order to read our postseason coverage. You can read our announcement here, but it's not the only reason you should consider becoming a Member. Membership includes:✓Ad-free browsing✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles✓Historical & platoon projections✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps✓One-click data exports✓Customizable player-page dashboards✓Dark & Classic site modes✓Weekly Members-only mailbag✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review✓Optional homepage photo removal✓Gift articles to non-Members✓Full postseason coverage