Adding fuel to the fire: Trump’s diesel deal stokes European concerns

London | Oct. 15, 2026, 5:00 a.m. ET | 4 min read Shocking. But not surprising.That best sums up the response from Ukraine and America’s longtime allies in Europe to President Donald Trump’s announcement that he’s waiving U.S. sanctions and has arranged to buy millions of tons of diesel fuel from Russia.The “shocking” part was the suddenness, timing, and extent of Mr. Trump’s policy swerve. It came as U.S., Ukrainian, and European negotiators had been meeting to discuss a framework for ending the war, and only weeks after he signed a unanimous Senate bill endorsing tighter sanctions on Russian oil exports.It also came at a time when the Iran war had left Ukraine desperately short of the U.S.-made Patriot interceptors it needs to defend itself against Russia’s air assault.Ukraine now faces the prospect of punishing winter barrages on its electricity and other energy installations by an emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yet it’s the “not surprising” aspect of Mr. Trump’s policy shift that is foremost in European leaders’ minds: It has left them with an ever-deepening concern over the long-term prospects for their partnership with America.In the immediate term, they do still hope they can head off the worst repercussions for Kyiv.That’s because they’ve seen this movie before. Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/Kremlin/APRussian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Oct. 12, 2026. Since returning to the White House, Mr. Trump has periodically tilted toward Russia, whose February 2022 invasion caused the war, while exerting pressure on Ukraine. Later, though, he has tilted back toward Ukraine.Early in his second term, he and Vice President JD Vance gave Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a televised dressing-down in the Oval Office, hustled him out of the White House, and proceeded briefly to withhold critical intelligence support from Ukraine.The Europeans’ response was to engage with Washington. While reiterating their own backing for Ukraine, they moved to help shore up Mr. Zelenskyy’s relationship with Mr. Trump and to steer him back toward joint efforts to get a sustainable peace agreement. They also found ways to continue providing support for Kyiv that Mr. Trump could live with – notably a program under which Europe has purchased the U.S. weapons and equipment needed to help sustain Kyiv’s fight against Russia.And they upped their own defense spending and military backing for Ukraine, despite knowing that they’re not yet in a position to compensate for a full-scale U.S. disengagement.That’s the playbook they’ve been drawing on since the diesel agreement with Moscow. European leaders have strongly reiterated support for Ukraine and for tightening – not easing – sanctions on Russia. Alastair Grant/APBritain's Prime Minister Andy Burnham welcomes Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at No. 10 Downing St. in London, Oct. 14, 2026. On Wednesday, Britain’s Prime Minister Andy Burnham welcomed President Zelenskyy to Downing Street and announced plans for accelerated delivery of British weapons capable of intercepting Russia’s latest jet-powered drones.The Europeans’ best-case hope is that Mr. Trump could yet retreat from, or at least delay, his tilt toward Moscow – if not because of Europe’s or Ukraine’s alarm, then because of pushback from at least some Republicans on Capitol Hill.But since the diesel deal, there have been reports the United States might again withhold intelligence from Ukraine if it doesn’t agree to Mr. Trump’s insistence that it stop its attacks on refineries inside Russia. Mr. Trump said early this week that intelligence was still being provided. But Mr. Zelenskyy has suggested it’s being pared back. On Wednesday, the BBC quoted Ukrainian soldiers as saying their access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system was being restricted.The Europeans will be keen at least to revive momentum on the peace framework being discussed with U.S. envoys last week. As detailed in The Washington Post, it envisages tough compromises for both sides. But critically for Ukraine, it includes the kind of postwar Western security guarantees that Mr. Zelenskyy has long been seeking.Still, their focus on responding to Mr. Trump’s latest policy shift hasn’t dampened their deeper, long-term concern.The main reason that his preference for diesel supplies over sanctions was not surprising to European leaders was that it confirmed their growing belief that the U.S. simply no longer shares their vision of the continent’s security challenges.For Europe’s democracies, Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, with the aim of ousting an elected, pro-Western government, set off alarm bells. They’re convinced that if Mr. Putin emerges from the war with something he can credibly call victory, he’ll represent a clear and present danger to other European states.They’ve become increasingly convinced Mr. Trump holds a starkly different view: that Russia, in the words of his 2026 National Defense Strategy, represents a “manageable threat” and that the Russians are “in no position to make a bid for European hegemony.” Also, that Mr. Trump does not see Ukraine as the victim of Moscow’s aggression, but as an equal party to a war he wants sorted out.The past few days have done little to allay Europe’s concerns. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. In leaning on Mr. Zelenskyy, Mr. Trump again suggested that Ukraine, not Russia, was the reason the war is in its fifth year.Mr. Zelenskyy “could have made many deals,” Mr. Trump said, “and for some reason he never does.” ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. 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