A turbulent week in Victorian politics has Canberra on high alert

Welcome back to your weekly federal politics update, where Gina Rushton is filling in for Courtney Gould to get you up to speed on the happenings from Parliament House.A familiar affair this week drew Canberra's attention to Victoria, where Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as the state's premier following a chaotic leadership spill.While officially declaring the end to the fuel discount and cautiously welcoming softening inflation, Treasurer Jim Chalmers was quick on Wednesday to endorse Carroll's decision to call a royal commission into alleged corruption in Victoria's building industry.As David Speers wrote in his column this morning, while federal Labor has "long adopted a stony silence" on the idea of a royal commission (as Allan refused to call an inquiry), Chalmers was happy to back Carroll's call and the man himself, who he called "outstanding".After a leadership ballot so loud reporters could hear yelling from the caucus room, Victorian Labor now has less than four months to convince voters a new leader is as good as a change before the election.Meanwhile, as Raf Epstein said on ABC's Politics Now podcast: "Their federal Labor colleagues are just going to sit back and watch."Plenty of people are rushing to draw out the implications of Allan's downfall for federal Labor but it's not just the government that will be keeping an eye on Victorian politics as the state veers towards polling day.Sensing opportunity, Liberal frontbencher Tim Wilson swiftly called for a national royal commission into the CFMEU after Carroll's announcement of a state level inquiry into the construction sector.One Nation 'complicates the electoral calculus'There are questions about what Victoria's electoral situation could mean federally for all parties as pollsters and politicians monitor the Liberal party's identity crisis and One Nation's polling at a state and federal level.Under the cover of the Labor leadership chaos, controversial Victorian Liberal MP Moira Deeming resigned from the party, allowing the state's Liberal leader Jess Wilson to focus less on the dysfunction within her own party and instead on making the most of the government's disunity."One Nation's influence complicates the electoral calculus", observed the ABC's state Victorian political reporter Richard Willingham, with some in Labor assuming the Coalition will be unable to win a majority and will be forced to rely on One Nation.Just as its polling has improved nationally this year, One Nation has emerged as a popular choice with voters in the historically progressive stronghold of Victoria.Pauline Hanson on Wednesday said she would announce all of her candidates either tomorrow or next week but the first candidate to be revealed was upper house MP Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, who has been in the Legislative Council since 2022."You will have a One Nation representative that you can vote for in Victoria," Tyrrell told News24, formerly Sky News.Vetting of candidates has long been a challenge for One Nation, as evidenced in the South Australian election earlier this year where several controversial picks proved problematic for the party.It's the main reason the Victorian Liberals are arguing any preference deals would have to be decided seat by seat.That there is a significant chance of a One Nation-aided Liberal victory in Victoria is not being seen as bad news by everyone in Labor.Should that eventuate, many inside the Albanese government believe it would produce a cautionary tale they can warn voters against at a federal level.The PM attends 'lots of functions'Last week we mentioned that while one politician was disciplining his dog live on national television, the prime minister was enjoying the hospitality of a billionaire family at a mansion in Sydney's most expensive suburb.The Nine papers, which first revealed the dinner hosted by 25-year-old Felix Lee, then reported on a "damning 189-page Australian Taxation Office affidavit" about Lee's father Phillip in which he is accused of repeatedly deceiving authorities to funnel money from China into Australian bank accounts and property.But asked about the dinner by David Speers on Insiders on Sunday, the PM was circumspect, hesitant to admit he even attended, saying he goes to "lots of functions"."What about this one?" pressed Speers."I attend lots of functions in lots of places, including last night right here," Albanese said."What about this dinner in Point Piper?""I attend lots of functions…""Why don't you want to answer that?""Well, I do," Albanese said. "You've just said that that occurred. Yeah, that's fine. I attend lots of dinners in lots of places, and I don't talk about private dinners. I've held a number this week here in Adelaide as well."While we're updating you on politicians revelling in the generosity of the uber-wealthy, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson this week updated her parliamentary register of interests, declaring Gina Rinehart paid for her London to Sicily flights.Hanson didn't see this as an impediment to criticising the PM for what she says are "double standards"."The prime minister hits Australians with some of the highest taxes in the world, then dines with the family of a man the tax office reportedly chased for a quarter of a billion in unpaid tax."A prime minister is attending Garma, just not oursThe PM might attend "lots of functions" but when the nation's largest Indigenous gathering kicks off tomorrow Albanese will be nowhere in sight.Last year he told the Garma Key Forum: "I commit here that, every single year that I have the great honour to be Australia's prime minister, I will be here and engaged with you."The four-day festival in north-east Arnhem Land will instead be attended by Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Minister for Indigenous Australians Malarndirri McCarthy, who will together give a keynote address. Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek and shadow education minister Julian Leeser are also attending, as is a prime minister who isn't our own, Timor-Leste's Kay Rala Xaxana Gusmao.Albanese defended breaking his promise by saying he hasn't "had a day off all year".'I want to shake down Angus for $10k'On Kitchen Cabinet this week Angus Taylor made a point of distinguishing his career trajectory from others in his party as he "didn't come up through the Young Liberals" and "wasn't a staffer".But atypical Liberal he may be, the opposition leader was this week unable to untie himself from the web of connections within the NSW Liberal Party on display at NSW ICAC hearings.Taylor has denied he ever gave money to a Liberal faction at the centre of a corruption probe into branch stacking but would not answer questions about if and how the group approached him, or if he made cash commitments but did not follow through.Taylor — who on Kitchen Cabinet treated Annabel Crabb to some… flour and milk (he made damper) — said five times he had not made any payment to the group known as the NSW Reformers.On Tuesday a screenshot of a message exchange in which Dallas McInerney, former chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW, told the Reformers he wanted to "shake down Angus" for $10,000.Other evidence heard at the inquiry included third-party (or something that clearly indicates it wasn’t Taylor) text messages referencing Taylor agreeing to pay a $15,000 "injection" and a $3,000 monthly donation to the right-wing group.Taylor, who is not accused of any wrongdoing, is unlikely to avoid more questions in coming weeks, as his factional ally McInerney appears at ICAC to answer questions.