A step back: On Trump’s no-war, no-deal approach against Iran

Before the November 3 midterm elections, U.S. President Donald Trump had repeatedly threatened to “destroy” Iran unless it entered into a deal with the U.S. to end the war. Since the elections, in which Mr. Trump’s Republican Party suffered a massive defeat, the U.S. President appears to have toned down his rhetoric. Last week, he said he had decided against escalating the military conflict with Iran following requests from America’s Gulf allies. But the U.S. would maintain the naval blockade of the Islamic Republic. Mr. Trump also pulled Vice President J.D. Vance off negotiations with Iran, as the Qatar-mediated talks made no real progress. Iran wants the U.S. to lift the blockade, unfreeze its frozen assets, issue sanctions relief and pull back from the Persian Gulf for direct negotiations on the nuclear programme to restart. The U.S., which calls Iran’s demands “outrageous”, has now adopted a no-war, no-deal approach, hoping that the economic blockade would force Tehran to offer concessions in the near future. Mr. Trump’s retreat from the threats reflects the realities on the ground. Before the U.S. and Israel launched this war by assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader on February 28, Tehran was ready to make concessions. The U.S. and Israel carried out heavy bombing for 40 days but achieved none of their declared objectives. There is no guarantee that another round of strikes would force Iran to change its position. And the war, as the midterm results show, remains very unpopular in America.Mr. Trump has only himself, and Benjamin Netanyahu, to blame for the predicament he is in. He is the one who sabotaged a functioning Obama-era nuclear deal in 2018 that had denied Iran a path towards the nuclear bomb. Mr. Trump joined Israel’s unprovoked war on Iran in June 2025 and declared that he had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme. And the same Mr. Trump started the current war, just eight months later, over the same nuclear programme. The Iranian state has survived, though Iranians are facing enormous economic woes. Tehran shut the Strait of Hormuz, pumping up global energy prices. Iran’s counterattacks have either destroyed or damaged America’s bases in the Persian Gulf. High oil prices and inflation turned the American electorate against the Republican party, while in Israel, Mr. Netanyahu, despite war rhetoric and racist attacks on the country’s Arab minorities, lost the governing majority. The setbacks are there for anyone to see. Yet, Mr. Trump does not seem to have grasped the seriousness of the situation. His no-war, no-deal approach risks a resumption of hostilities as Iran has pledged to break the siege. The U.S. has few clear military options unless it is prepared to launch a ground invasion, which would be disastrous. A more rational way forward is to end the war through diplomacy. But for that, Mr. Trump must first accept the strategic reality that he has lost the war. Published - November 16, 2026 12:24 am IST