A new Meduza analysis finds Ukraine’s long-range strikes are reaching twice as deep but not surging in 2026. Russia’s refineries, meanwhile, keep bouncing back.

A series of large-scale strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) on Bryansk, Moscow, Perm, Tuapse, and many other targets deep inside Russia has left a clear impression: Kyiv’s long-range campaign is hitting harder than it used to. The images are certainly vivid: “oil rain” blanketing an entire city, a mass drone raid on Russia’s capital, and refineries under near constant attack. Despite all this activity, however, it’s hard to tell whether anything has changed in Ukraine’s strategy. Assessi...