A ‘Monster’ Disaster Could Hit This Fall, Research Shows. It May Rival One of the Strongest Ever Recorded.

5 min readHere’s what you’ll learn when you read this story:El Niños are naturally occurring weather patterns along the equator, and they cause climate shifts throughout the world. Previously, an El Niño indirectly caused the death of millions of people when it aligned with other natural disasters. Now, chances favor a “very strong” El Niño emerging this fall—but experts warn that our preparedness could change everything. Despite their disarming nicknames, El Niño and La Niña—the two sides of the climatic coin known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO—are deadly serious. The engine at ENSO’s heart are the easterly trade winds that are either weaker during El Niño or stronger during La Niña. The differing winds drastically alter the spread of warm water in the Pacific, thereby impacting weather on land.Between 1982 and 1983, a “very strong” El Niño—the official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) designation for what the media might label as “Super,” “Mega,” or even “Monster”—created torrential rainfall that buffeted the Southwest, even causing reservoirs along the Colorado River to overflow (something that seems almost unimaginable in the drought-stricken area today). In 1997, another “very strong” El Niño indirectly caused 23,000 deaths by instigating floods, droughts, and wildfires around the world. Even way back in 1877, El Niño perfectly aligned with other climate phenomena, including a record strong Indian Ocean dipole, to cause the deaths of an estimated 50 million people, defining global inequalities that still persist today.Now, the world rests on the precipice of another “very strong” El Niño, and it’s due to arrive sometime this fall.“Chances favor the emergence of a very strong El Niño by 81 percent in October to December,” NOAA’s ENSO lead scientist Michelle L’Heureux, MS, who’s been forecasting this climate cycle for almost 20 years, says in an email. L’Heureux explains that the southern U.S. should expect stormier weather and increased chances of precipitation. Meanwhile, the northern U.S. might see drier conditions, particularly over the northern Rockies, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley region.NOAA tracks ENSOs using the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which gathers data from moored buoys and satellites to track sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the east-central equatorial Pacific. A decrease in average SSTs hints at a forthcoming La Niña. El Niños, on the contrary, are marked by an increase in SSTs, and they typically return in a two-to-seven-year cycle. The coming El Niño isn't defying that schedule—but what was unexpected was how it’d return with a vengeance. The June 2026 RONI reached a 1.1-degree-Celsius increase, the fourth highest for June in the past 124 years, according to L’Heureux. Researchers fully expect that number to reach two degrees Celsius by the end of the year. In fact, the July index climbed even higher than that estimate, ringing in at 2.1 degrees.“Only 7 El Niño events in the last 75 years have reached this level,” L’Heureux says. “It is entirely possible that we see this event rival the strongest El Niño event we’ve seen in the entire record,” referring to the 1982–83 El Niño.These numbers have inspired a sense of impending doom as El Niño will supercharge temperatures in regions already struggling with excess heat due to climate change, such as the northern U.S., Southeast Asia, and Australia. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said a very strong El Niño will “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.” And while scientists have a good idea of what makes ENSO tick, Andrew Kruczkiewicz, MA, a faculty lecturer at the Columbia Climate School and an expert on disaster preparedness, says that no two El Niños are the same.“Just because we have a very strong understanding of what El Niño is in terms of the coupling between the atmosphere and the subsurface… every El Niño is different,” Kruczkiewicz says. “There’s uncertainty in terms of when impacts will appear, to what extent those impacts will occur, and also the durations of those impacts.”The ENSO cycle differs from more acute weather phenomena, such as floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes, as it’s not inherently bad—it’s just a part of the Earth’s natural thermostat. In fact, the disappearance of ENSO would cause a complete collapse of the marine ecosystem as well as force the continuous accumulation of warm water in the western Pacific. And while some worry about the ensuing knock-on effects (also known as teleconnections) from El Niño around the world, others are borderline praying for the relief this ENSO might bring.One of the regions most eagerly awaiting the impact of this “very strong” El Niño are the Colorado River Basin states in the southwestern U.S. These seven states are currently in the throes of a megadrought crisis that threatens the aquatic artery that runs from Colorado to the Gulf of California (or, at least it used to), and a “very strong” El Niño could help revitalize critical reservoirs, such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell. El Niño is also known to dampen hurricane season in the Atlantic due to increased vertical wind shear, another potential benefit.Although climate change is likely making these “very strong” El Niños and La Niñas more frequent, the real danger from these climate oscillations—ones that’ve likely impacted the planet for millions of years—is humanity’s inability to adequately prepare for them. During the 1877 to 1878 El Niño, for example, unseasonably warm SSTs in the Pacific caused a very strong El Niño, but the situation worsened when the British Empire continued exporting grain from India even as famine set in. During the 1982 and 1983 El Niño, uncoordinated and unprepared disaster relief in Peru likely led to more deaths across the country. This time around, Kruczkiewicz is worried about yet another threat.“This is our first El Niño in the AI era,” Kruczkiewicz says. “Are the people who have the responsibility to protect the most vulnerable populations, the most sensitive industries, the most important logistical networks, are those people relying on AI?... AI should not take the role of science translators.”Over the past decades, and especially since 1983, forecasting ENSO has drastically improved with more datasets and better computer modeling. Kruczkiewicz uses modeling from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University, initially designed for the Red Cross, to better understand how rainfall changes during El Niño. The map isn’t perfect—Kruczkiewicz refers to it as a “cartoon” as it doesn’t perfectly capture ENSO’s impact—but it’s a way for regions to begin preparing for the very worst. Likewise, scientists believe that they may be able to dampen the effects of El Niños by injecting aerosols into the atmosphere, according to a recent study published in Science Advances. However, more research needs to be done to further understand any unwanted environmental side effects.Both of these advancements are useful in mitigating the potential risks, because if history is any indication, the worst will happen—it’s how effectively we prepare and respond that transforms an otherwise predictable climate phenomenon into a full-blown tragedy.Special Digital IssuesAugust/September 2026Download HereThis issue is optimized for mobile/tablet viewing.It's also available on Apple News+.Featuring:➡ A Luxury Resort Hid a Secret Government Doomsday Bunker Below It for 35 Years. The Clues Were Everywhere.➡ 7 People Have Confessed to Being D.B. Cooper. Is One of Them Telling the Truth?➡ A B-52 Accidentally Lost Two Hydrogen Bombs Over North Carolina. One Nearly Detonated. 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