A Ban on Georgia’s Opposition Would Complete Georgian Dream’s Capture of the State

Georgia’s ruling party is moving to take its most serious challengers off the ballot before the next parliamentary elections in 2028. On October 21, the Constitutional Court began hearings on Georgian Dream’s bid to outlaw five opposition groups, four of which together received nearly 38 percent of the vote in the disputed 2024 parliamentary elections. A ruling in its favor would bring Georgia closer to one-party rule and leave voters with little opportunity to remove Georgian Dream from power two years from now. Georgian Dream Seeks To Crush Its Electoral Rivals The lawsuit, filed by 88 lawmakers from the ruling party, targets the United National Movement, Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia–Lelo, the Federalists, and former Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia’s For Georgia. It accuses them of attempting to overthrow the constitutional order, rejecting election results, and threatening Georgia’s territorial integrity. Georgian Dream initially sought to ban three opposition blocs in October 2025 but expanded the case in April and September 2026 to include the Federalists and For Georgia, the only opposition party still represented in parliament. In October 2025, Georgian Dream adopted legislation enabling the court to bar individuals associated with prohibited parties from joining or establishing parties, holding political office, or running in elections. The current lawsuit does not request such individual bans, but a ruling against the parties could pave the way for separate proceedings targeting their leaders and members before the 2028 vote. The Council of Europe’s advisory body on constitutional matters found the broader legal framework disproportionate and incompatible with international standards on political pluralism. Erosion of Democracy Is Pivoting Georgia Toward U.S. Adversaries Georgian Dream’s latest move follows its crackdown on protesters, opposition figures, independent media, and civil society after the 2024 parliamentary elections, which the European Parliament described as rigged. That November, the government suspended EU accession talks until 2028, despite the Georgian public’s strong pro-Western orientation. Georgian Dream has combined its retreat from European integration with closer ties to Washington’s adversaries, even as it seeks a reset with the United States. In June, Georgia and China upgraded relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, while Chinese companies expanded their presence in strategic infrastructure and Georgian institutions pursued closer integration with China’s financial system. Georgian Dream has also refused to sanction Russia, even as the European Union targeted a Georgian refinery processing Russian crude and Georgia-registered cryptocurrency platforms facilitating sanctions evasion. Tbilisi has also moved closer to Tehran. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze visited Iran twice in 2024 and met its president again on October 16. Under Georgian Dream, Georgia has become a sanctions-evasion hub for Iran, while Iranian-linked religious networks have reportedly facilitated recruitment for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Banning the main pro-Western opposition parties would effectively complete Georgian Dream’s capture of the state and make Georgia’s return to a pro-Western course increasingly difficult. The move would also defy the Trump administration’s stated expectation that a lasting strategic partnership requires meaningful opposition participation, further weakening Washington’s influence in a strategically important Black Sea and South Caucasus country where Russia, China, and Iran have already expanded their presence. U.S. Should Pressure Georgian Dream To Drop the Case Washington should press Georgian Dream to withdraw the lawsuit before the court rules. The European Parliament already demanded that Tbilisi abandon the case and called for targeted sanctions against those responsible for democratic backsliding and political persecution. The United States sanctioned Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili in December 2024. If Georgian Dream refuses to drop the case, Washington should expand targeted financial sanctions to party officials and affiliated businessmen who finance or otherwise enable political repression and consider additional visa restrictions. The administration should also make clear that any reset in bilateral relations depends on Georgian Dream releasing political prisoners, ending the political persecution of opposition figures and journalists, repealing repressive laws targeting independent media and civil society, restoring judicial independence and the rule of law, and ensuring that opposition parties can freely compete in the 2028 parliamentary elections. Normalizing relations without these steps would reward Georgian Dream’s authoritarian policies and further weaken Washington’s leverage in Georgia. Keti Korkiya is a research analyst in the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Keti and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.